It’s a battle between the American Athletic Conference and the SEC in the Gasparilla Bowl when the Tulane Green Wave take on the Florida Gators.
The Green Wave boast the AAC’s top scoring offense and second-best scoring defense, while the Gators have found their stride late in the year with wins in three straight over legit competition.
My college football picks are taking it all into consideration with my Tulane vs. Florida player prop picks for the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday, December 20.
Tulane vs Florida props for the Gasparilla Bowl
Makhi Hughes Over 72.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
DJ Lagway Under 245.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Ja’Kobi Jackson anytime TD (-140 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-19.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Makhi Hughes Over 72.5 rushing yards
Perhaps the biggest news heading into this one is that Tulane Green Wave starting QB Darian Mensah is out after transferring to Duke.
The remaining pivots on the roster, Ty Thompson and Kai Horton, have thrown a total of 12 passes on the season. The passing attack is severely compromised.
For the Green Wave to have any success, they have to feed running back Makhi Hughes early and often and hope the sophomore snaps out of his recent funk.
Over the last three games, Hughes has been held under his 72.5-yard rushing total twice and has averaged just 54.3 yards per contest. This, after cracking 100 yards rushing in the previous five.
The Florida Gators might just be the get-right opponent. The Gators finished third-worst in rushing defense in the SEC, allowing 156.2 yards per game.
Prop bet #2: DJ Lagway Under 245.5 passing yards
I get the SEC is tougher competition than the American, but the books might just be a little optimistic in setting DJ Lagway’s passing yards prop at 245.5 yards. It’s a total the freshman quarterback has topped just once over his last 10 games.
Lagway has been impressive in leading the Gators to three straight wins to close out the regular season, including over ninth-ranked Mississippi and 22nd-ranked LSU, but his best line over that stretch was 13-for-26 for 226 yards against the Tigers.
Tulane was tops in the AAC and sixth-best in the nation, allowing just 167.9 yards per contest.
Against three ranked opponents this season, neither Kansas State (then 17th) nor Oklahoma (then 19th) topped 182 passing yards. You almost can’t include run-heavy No. 24 Army, who topped Tulane 35-14 to close out the regular season, as they attempted just two passes.
Lagway could have a breakout passing game, but it would be an outlier for sure, and I’m happy to stick my wager on what’s mostly on the tape.
Prop bet #3: Ja’Kobi Jackson anytime TD
Another freshman making an impact for the Gators is running back Ja’Kobi Jackson. Tied for the team lead with seven touchdowns on the season, he’s been coming on late, punching in rushing scores in four of his last five games.
Last time out, he ran for 51 yards and a major in a 31-11 whipping of Florida State. He’s shown up in the big games, with TD scores against ranked teams LSU, Texas and Georgia. The only game he didn’t hit paydirt was against No. 9 Mississippi.
Tulane ranked fourth in the AAC allowing 138.8 rushing yards per game, but they did give up 18 rushing scores on the season, most recently gashed for five rushing touchdowns against Army.
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