SMU looks to keep rolling after an impressive 6-0 start to the season. Without a loss to their name, the Mustangs are firmly entrenched in the AAC race despite monolithic Cincinnati awaiting.
But first is an interesting college football betting test against conference foe Tulane. The Green Wave have struggled after a surprisingly competitive opener against Oklahoma, slipping to 1-5. Will they be able to turn things around in 2021, or are they primed for another ugly loss at the hands of an undefeated SMU team?
Find the answer to the question with our picks and predictions for Tulane Green Wave vs. SMU Mustangs on Thursday, October 21.
Tulane vs SMU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
SMU opened as -14 favorites, but the line has been bet down to -13.5 across most books at the time of this writing. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Tulane vs SMU picks
Picks made on 10/19/2021 at 8:14 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tulane vs SMU game info
• Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
• Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Tulane vs SMU betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Tulane: Mykel Jones WR (Out).
SMU: Ulysses Bentley IV RB (Probable), TJ McDaniel RB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tulane vs. SMU.
Tulane vs SMU predictions
Tulane +13.5 (-110)
We expect SMU to be a public play this week, seeing as it’s currently 6-0 and at home against a struggling 1-5 Tulane squad. The Mustangs are one of three unbeaten AAC teams remaining and have their eyes set on bigger and better things than a 1-5 conference opponent.
That’s just what would worry me as an SMU bettor: With an all-important matchup against Houston on deck, this could be a look-ahead spot for the Mustangs. While Tulane hasn’t given much reason to inspire confidence this season, this is still a program that has been remarkably consistent under head coach Willie Fritz, as the Green Wave finished 7-6 in both 2018 and 2019 before finishing at 6-6 a year ago.
There are some trends to support Tulane as well: The Green Wave are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings on the road against SMU, while the road team has fared well in this matchup, going 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
While the Mustangs’ impressive offense has led the way, they’ve covered a spread this wide three times on the season against unimpressive competition composed of two 1-5 teams (North Texas, South Florida) and an FCS School (Abilene Christian). Despite Tulane’s struggles, Willie Fritz’s team isn’t quite the doormat that those schools are — they’ve faced a tough schedule to date, including FBS powers Oklahoma and Ole Miss, plus Conference USA favorite UAB, and the aforementioned Houston.
The backdoor cover should remain open as this Tulane offense is averaging 32.8 points per game, led by quarterback Michael Pratt (17 total touchdowns), and will go against a SMU defense that is surrendering 5.7 yards per play despite facing unimpressive competition.
If 1-5 Navy was able to hang tight (31-24 loss, tied going into the fourth quarter) with the Mustangs, Tulane should be able to as well.
Over 70 (-110)
This is a high total, but deservedly so. SMU features a Top-10 scoring offense in the country (40.7 points per game) led by star quarterback and Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai, who is tied for first in the country with 26 passing touchdowns.
He has a plethora of receiving options at his disposal, including Danny Gray (469 yards, 7 TDs), Rashee Rice (375 yards, 6 TDs), and Reggie Roberson (365 yards, 4 TDs), and this receiving corps has a case to be made as the top unit in the Group of Five and could feast on a Tulane defense surrendering 40.2 points per game and ranking 122nd in the nation in allowing 475.2 yards per game.
On the other side, Pratt and this Tulane offense should be able to move the ball against an SMU defense allowing 251.8 passing yards per game (101st in the country).
Both teams play an up-tempo style of offense, with each snapping the ball upwards of 72 times per game. More plays lead to more points, especially between two offense-first teams.
Both teams also enter this game coming off a bye week and should be firing on all cylinders for this midweek matchup.
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