Saturday’s Independence Bowl should be one of the more competitive bowl games that college football fans will be treated to before some of the bigger draws. This one will pit the 8-4 UAB Blazers up against the 10-2 BYU Cougars, and both of these programs will be looking to cap their seasons off with a big victory.
Will the Blazers find a way to hang around against a Cougars team that has knocked off some tough opponents this year? Keep reading our UAB vs. BYU college football picks and predictions for December 18 to find out.
UAB vs BYU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Despite most of the bets coming in on BYU, the Cougars are now laying 6.5 or 7 points after opening as 8-point favorites. The total, on the other hand, is moving with the public in this game, with most bettors backing the Over and the number rising from 54.5 to 55 on some sites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
UAB vs BYU predictions
Predictions made on 12/14/2021 at 12:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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UAB vs BYU game info
• Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
UAB vs BYU betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
UAB: DeWayne McBride RB (Out), TaDarryl Marshall DB (Out).
BYU: Isaac Rex TE (Out), Neil Pau’u WR (Out), Keenan Pili LB (Out), Brayden Cosper WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UAB is 4-1 in its last five games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for UAB vs. BYU.
UAB vs BYU picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The strength of BYU’s offense is the running game, where quarterback Jaren Hall and running back Tyler Allgeier are both excellent with their legs. Hall rushed for 307 yards with three touchdowns this season, which is good for 5.0 yards per carry. He had a run of 56 yards this season, showing that he’s simply built differently than others that play his position. Meanwhile, Allgeier rushed for a career-high 1,414 yards with 20 touchdowns this year. He’s a really smart runner and is insanely hard to bring down, and it’s his ability that opens things up for Hall and the Cougars’ passing game.
The problem for BYU here is that UAB has the 11th-ranked rushing defense in college football this year. The Blazers are giving up just 104.1 yards per game on the ground, and they only gave up 12 rushing touchdowns all season. This UAB team is built rather well on the defensive line, and head coach Bill Clark is going to have a plan in place to keep Allgeier in check here. That’s the main reason to believe in this UAB team: Clark’s defenses are always prepared.
If UAB is able to keep the BYU ground attack from getting going, it’s going to be hard for Hall to lead the Cougars to a victory. The Blazers aren’t exactly elite in the secondary, but they are more than capable of getting stops in third-and-long situations. That’s exactly what they’ll be facing if they keep the Cougars behind the sticks.
Offensively, UAB isn’t exactly special or anything, but the team should be able to score enough points to get the job done here. Dylan Hopkins isn’t going to light up the Cougars in this one, but he has thrown four touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games. He hasn’t had a multi-interception game all year, and that lack of mistakes gives his team the chance to win games late.
In the running game, Jermaine Brown Jr. is the top dog with DeWayne McBride injured. Brown Jr. had three touchdowns in the season finale.
Prediction: UAB +7 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games the Blazers have played as underdogs and it’s also 4-1 in their last five non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Under is also 7-0 in BYU’s last seven games against Conference-USA opponents and it’s also 6-2 In the team’s last eight as a neutral-site favorite. On top of that, the Under is 7-2 in the last nine games the Cougars have played against teams with winning records.
Considering these are two teams that pride themselves on their abilities to get stops, it’s hard to expect a whole lot of points in this one. UAB is badly going to want to prevent this one from turning into a shootout, as the team’s best chance of winning is in the trenches. Meanwhile, even if BYU does end up finding a way to cover, it’s hard to imagine that not having a lot to do with Allgeier. That would mean the clock was moving with him finding success on the ground.
Prediction: Under 55 (-110)
Best bet
This season, UAB is 6-0 ATS when facing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. Those contests had the Blazers winning by an average margin of 9.9 points per game. UAB is also 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS when having an extra week to prepare for an opponent since Clark took over as head coach. In that time, the Blazers are 6-4 ATS in the 10 games they’ve played against teams that win at least 75.0 percent of their games.
It also should be mentioned that BYU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. That streak is going to be tough to break against a UAB team that defends at a high level.
Pick: UAB +7 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
