UAB vs Western Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: High-Octane Hilltoppers

Bettors get to enjoy C-USA football on a Friday night when the 4-2 UAB Blazers meet the 4-3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  

UAB enters this match hoping to extend its modest two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky snapped a two-game losing skid with a solid away victory over Middle Tennessee. 

Who will win this Friday's C-USA battle? Find out in my best free college football betting picks and predictions for this Week 8 showdown between the UAB Blazers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Friday, October 21, 2022. 

UAB vs Western Kentucky best odds

UAB vs Western Kentucky picks and predictions

We have what should be a fantastic Friday night game, and my best bet is Western Kentucky to cover the 2.5 points.

The Hilltoppers are 19th in scoring among their FBS counterparts due primarily to QB Austin Reed. The senior signal-caller has thrown for the fourth most yards in the college game (2,314) plus 21 TDs and five interceptions.

Reed has several talented wideouts and backs to throw to, and six Western Kentucky receivers have at least 100 receiving yards. Sophomore WR Malachi Corley leads the Hilltoppers with six receiving TDS, while senior WR Daewood Davis leads the team with 610 receiving yards and five TDs.

Western Kentucky doesn’t just throw the football, either. as the Hilltoppers have scored 11 rushing TDs, and their leader is RB Kye Robichaux. The sophomore from Columbus, Georgia, has rushed for 456 yards with three scores, but Reed leads the Hilltoppers with four rushes for TDs.

It would be daunting for any defensive unit to stop Western Kentucky, but UAB has a better-than-average defense. The Blazers defense allows the 17th fewest points per game in the country and 319.2 yards total yards per contest. UAB hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in any of its six previous matchups but allows more points on the road than at home, and it's in for a stiff test Friday.

The Blazers offense hums and ranks 37th in scoring. Dylan Hopkins is a steady QB, but the meat of this attack revolves around junior RB DeWayne McBride and his 778 rushing yards with 11 TDs.

The Hilltoppers defense is No. 56 on the DVOA defensive list, and they’ve done an excellent job keeping Western Kentucky alive until the high-octane offense takes over. They allow the 54th most points per game in the nation and defend the run much better than the pass.

Western Kentucky should win and cover the spread. Reed & Co. will be difficult for a Blazers defense that hasn’t seen anything like what Western Kentucky brings to the table. The UAB passing defense looks stingy on paper, but the Hilltoppers passing game — alongside a more than solid rushing game — will have the Blazers looking up at the scoreboard all night long.

Finally, UAB is 0-2-0 ATS as the away team facing a Hilltoppers side that is 2-1-0 at home and has played a much stronger schedule, including a three-point away overtime loss to Indiana. Take Western Kentucky to cover the spread Friday night.

My best bet: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

UAB vs Western Kentucky spread analysis

I would be remiss if I didn’t note UAB and its ability to light up the scoreboard. The Blazers have scored 34 points or more in four of their six contests, but those big numbers were at home, where they are unbeaten. 

The road has been a different story, as they’ve combined for 38 points in two losses at Rice and Liberty.

Both teams have excellent offensive lines and do solid jobs keeping their QBs clean. UAB has recorded 13 sacks, while Western Kentucky has 15 through their first seven games. 

The Hilltoppers committed three turnovers and were flagged seven times for 78 yards last week at Middle Tennessee State. They also went 6-for-17 on third-down conversions and still won by 18 points.  

These schools have met eight times, and Friday’s winner will hold a 5-4 lifetime edge in the back-and-forth matchup.

UAB vs Western Kentucky Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 58 points, and the number hasn’t budged. It will likely remain there or it might inch half a point in either direction by close.

We have offensive firepower galore in this contest. Still, the Over is 2-4-0 over the Blazers’ six games, whereas the Over is 3-4-0 in the seven Hilltoppers’ clashes, which has everything to do with the respective defenses.

Reed has posted video game numbers this season, but he’s also thrown five picks, including one last week at Middle Tennesee State. UAB has nine takeaways, and with all the slinging, Reed could kill a drive with an untimely pick. 

The Hilltoppers’ 10 takeaways rank 10th in the country. Hopkins doesn’t throw the ball as frequently as Reed, but he’s tossed a pair of interceptions, with both occurring over the last three games. Hopkins has suffered nine sacks this season, and Western Kentucky has 15. Hopkins could get rushed into a pick or suffer a costly drive-ending sack.

Friday is a big game for two teams chasing possible bowl invitations and a C-USA title. We know these offenses can score, but if one offense stalls, it's likely UBA. These teams play predominately to the Under because they have defenses that make big stops and drive-ending interceptions. I believe it ends under the oddsmakers' number.

UAB vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know

The Hilltoppers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UAB vs. Western Kentucky.

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