It’s crazy how much can happen in just a year of college football. Last season, Dan Mullen and Florida fell just short against Alabama in the SEC Championship. Now, the Mullen era in Gainesville is over after a 6-6 season.
That “earned” the Gators a date with in-state rival UCF, and if there is someone who has experience against Florida, it’s Knights head coach Gus Malzahn from his years at Auburn. Does that make the Knights a live dog in this bowl season game?
Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for UCF vs. Florida on December 23.
UCF vs Florida odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Florida hit the board as a 6.5-point favorite for this matchup and was bet as high as 7.5, but has since come back down to the opening number. The total hit the board at 56.5 and after some initial Over money, Under action has brough the number down to 55.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
UCF vs Florida predictions
Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 2:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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UCF vs Florida game info
• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Date: Thursday, December 23, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
UCF vs Florida betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
UCF: Isaiah Bowser RB (Questionable), Dillon Gabriel QB (Out).
Florida: Anthony Richardson QB (Out), Zachary Carter DL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCF vs. Florida.
UCF vs Florida picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
What a strange year in the Swamp. The Gators obviously had huge turnover from the roster a season ago, but the season started well enough, and they came within a hair of upsetting Alabama. But after four consecutive conference losses to end the season, that was it for Mullen.
Billy Napier was a good hire for this team, but he won’t help in this game. Florida had some bright spots this season, but everything good was derailed by an undisciplined team. The Gators rank 116th in turnovers per game and 117th in penalties per game.
Florida will also be without arguably their best playmaker in quarterback Anthony Richardson. It sounds like Emjoy Jones will get the start despite the fact he is expected to enter the transfer portal. Likewise, Florida will be without their best defender, as Zackary Carter prepares for the NFL Draft.
Gus Malzahn’s first season at UCF could also be considered a bit of a disappointment. The team had aspirations of returning to the AAC Championship game, but quarterback Dillon Gabriel got hurt early in the season, while running back Isaiah Bowser struggled to stay on the field as well. UCF pulled up its socks after a humbling loss to Cincinnati and won five of its final six games. Quarterback Mikey Keene played better as the season wore on and there is a chance Bowser suits up for this game.
But this comes down to how focused and disciplined the Gators will be. They are the more talented bunch, but will that show here? I’m not so sure. UCF will take advantage of turnovers and penalties, and should be able to create enough offense to keep this one interesting throughout.
Prediction: UCF +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has seen the better part of the action for this total and I’d have to agree. For starters, Florida has really struggled to score down the stretch. Take away the game against Samford, and the Gators are averaging just 17.8 points over their last four games.
Second, the clock should be moving constantly in this one because running the football is both teams’ bread and butter. And with both runs proving to be less-than-reliable at times (Florida and UCF rank 69th and 71st in rushing yards allowed per game), you can expect both teams to pound the ball in this one, trying to limit the mistakes their respective quarterbacks can make.
Prediction: Under 55.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Gators have been one of the worst bets in college football all season. They are just 3-9 ATS for the year and 0-6 ATS in their last six overall.
They are down one of their best playmakers in Richardson and have an interim head coach. And you want them to cover nearly a touchdown against a team that will be motivated to get a win over a big in-state rival? No, thanks. We'll take the points with the Knights.
Pick: UCF +6.5 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
