UCF vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gabriel Carves Up Former Squad

Talk about a tale of two seasons, the Oklahoma Sooners are coming off a last-second win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry, commanding respect in the College Football Playoff race while UCF is on a three-game losing streak in the Big 12.

Given the different directions of these programs, the college football odds have the Sooners as heavy favorites with quarterback Dillon Gabriel taking on his old team while climbing to second in the Heisman Trophy odds at most books.

With the way the Knights defense has been playing this season, the Oklahoma star should only add to his campaign.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free college football picks for UCF vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, October 21.

UCF vs Oklahoma best odds

UCF vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

After that win over Texas, it has been all roses in Norman with head coach Brent Venables proving doubters wrong and turning the Oklahoma Sooners into a defensive juggernaut in the Big 12.

Leaning on his defensive background, there were questions if the Sooners would remain one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the country and after some hiccups last season, they’ve settled into dominance.

Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s scheme is all about spreading defenses out and beating them with vertical deep shots while mixing in plenty of screens in the horizontal passing attack to keep defenders honest.

This season it’s led to plenty of points — 45.2 per game, fourth most in the country — and statistical efficiency. The Sooners are currently fourth in EPA per play on offense and fifth in EPA per pass.

Seeing Dillon Gabriel pop up in the Heisman race would have been a surprise a month ago, but he’s been the point man behind one of the best offenses in the nation. The former UCF Knights quarterback has thrown for 1,878 yards while completing 72.3% of his passes at 9.6 YPA with 21 total touchdowns in six games.

UCF defensive coordinator Addison Williams will have the tall task of trying to slow Gabriel down and given how his defense has looked this season, he probably won’t be successful. The Knights sit 125th in EPA per play on defense, 80th in EPA per pass, and 131st in EPA per rush.

They’ve been gashed on defense all year and have yet to play a quarterback anywhere near Gabriel’s level or a team with as many productive pass-catchers as the Sooners. That sets the Heisman hopeful up to pick the Knights secondary apart.

Gabriel’s passing yards line is set at 305.5, a number he’s surpassed in four of six games this season. In Big 12 play, he’s averaging 324.3 passing yards with five touchdowns to just one interception while chipping in another four scores on the ground (he’s -188 as an anytime TD scorer).

On the ground or through the air, the Knights have been giving up explosive yardage in Big 12 games this season with their three conference opponents averaging 490.6 total yards against them.

While UCF has been easier to blow up in the run game, Oklahoma prefers to throw the rock around the yard, averaging 341.2 passing yards per game on 35 attempts this season.

My best bet: Dillon Gabriel Over 305.5 passing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

UCF vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Dillon Gabriel Over 305.5 passing yards (-115)

Dillon Gabriel anytime TD (-188)

Oklahoma -18.5 (+100)

+375 at bet365

Since Big 12 play began, Gabriel has announced himself as a legitimate Heisman contender with the way he’s pushing the ball downfield and creating as a runner.

He’s scored a rushing touchdown in each of his three conference games this season and topped 306 passing yards while scoring on his own in three of six games this year.

The UCF defense has looked like a bunch of tackling dummies when defending the run, which will set Gabriel up well to score one, especially with Lebby calling for him to use his legs on designed runs. The Knights have given up three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in three Big 12 games.

Usually when Gabriel is cooking, Oklahoma is scoring, and with their defense holding opponents to just 14 per game, eighth best in college football, covering 18.5 seems quite doable. The Sooners have outscored Big 12 opponents 104-56.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UCF vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

It’s been a big Oklahoma lean since the start with the Sooners opening as 18.5 or 19-point favorites. It’s come down to between 18.5 and 17.5, depending on the book.

Venables’ squad has been as good as it gets against the spread this season, going 6-0. They’ve covered as huge favorites in the Big 12 (-19.5 against Iowa State) and as dogs (+4 against Texas). They’re one of four teams in the country to remain undefeated against the spread.

It’s another story for Malzahn’s team, who are 2-4 ATS and have only covered against an FCS team (Villanova) and a MAC team (Kent State). They lost as favorites against both Baylor and Kansas and failed to cover +6 against Kansas State, the only team they’ve been an underdog against this season.

With two offenses proven to score points, the game total opened at 63.5 and continues to rise. Most books have it between 66 and 66.5.

The Sooners have been reliable when betting the Over this season. They’re 4-2 betting the Over and have hit it in two of their Big 12 games.

Despite an inability to cover, UCF has been one of the best Over teams in the country thanks to some poor defense. They’re 5-1 to the Over and have hit it in all three of their Big 12 games.

UCF vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

UCF has gone Over the total in nine of their last 14 games (+3.50 units / 23% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UCF vs Oklahoma.

UCF vs Oklahoma game info

UCF vs Oklahoma latest injuries

UCF vs Oklahoma weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic