UCLA vs NC State Holiday Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Canceled

Two Power Five conference programs do battle in the (aptly named) Holiday Bowl when the UCLA Bruins take on the NC State Wolfpack as part of the college football bowl season schedule.

It’ll be the first college football game ever played at Petco Park in San Diego. UCLA is looking to put the finishing touches on its most successful season of the Chip Kelly era with a win. Meanwhile, NC State has extra motivation to reach just the second 10-win season in program history. Will the Bruins find a win in Southern California, or will the Wolfpack grab that elusive 10th victory?

Find the answer to that question and more in our free college football betting picks and predictions for the Holiday Bowl between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the UCLA Bruins on Tuesday, December 28.

(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Tuesday's announcement that the Holiday Bowl has been canceled due to health & safety protocol.) 

UCLA vs NC State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This game opened with NC State -2.5 but the spread has shrunk to -1 as of December 21. The Over/Under total, which started at 60, still sits around the same number with some shops offering 59.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

UCLA vs NC State predictions

• Prediction: NC State -1 (-115)
• Prediction: Over 59.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 59.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UCLA vs NC State game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Tuesday, December 28, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

UCLA vs NC State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

UCLA: Chase Griffin QB (Out).
NC State: Isaiah Moore LB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCLA vs. NC State.

UCLA vs NC State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Although UCLA will be playing in somewhat familiar confines in Southern California, an argument can be made that NC State has more motivation as it has the opportunity to reach just the second 10-win season in program history. If external factors are considered a wash, then we believe the Wolfpack has a slight advantage in the matchup department.

UCLA likes to run the ball, ranking 12th nationally while averaging a robust 219.7 yards per game on the ground. This plays right into the strength of the NC State defense — the Wolfpack has a Top-25 rush defense and allows only 3.8 yards per carry. They have one of the best defensive fronts in the ACC and are solid all around.

NC State appears better poised to exploit UCLA’s defensive. The key deficiency has been a leaky secondary that ranks 111th nationally, allowing over 260.2 yards per game through the air. NC State quarterback Devin Leary broke the program record for passing yards in a single season and has thrown for 300 yards in five of his last six games. This appears to be the biggest mismatch on the field.

While UCLA’s 8-4 record looks nice on the surface, a deeper examination spoils the mood. The Bruins have just one win over a bowl-eligible team (Hawaii, who has a losing record), while all four of their losses came against teams that qualified for a bowl. They beat up on bad teams but couldn’t get over the hump when facing tough competition. NC State is no cakewalk, and we believe the Wolfpack will prove too much for UCLA to handle over four quarters.

Prediction: NC State -1 (-115)

Over/Under analysis

This total feels a bit low considering UCLA averaged 36.5 points per game and NC State averaged 33.1. Here are the four-point totals the Bruins allowed in losses to bowl-eligible teams: 40 to Fresno State, 42 to Arizona State, 34 to Oregon, and 44 to Utah. This defense has wilted every time it's stepped up in competition, and the Wolfpack can do damage with Leary (3,433 yards, 35 TDs) at the forefront of the offense.

The Bruins have a dangerous offense by all accounts. They’ve scored over 40 points in each of their final three games of the season and have been held below 30 points just twice all season. It's a balanced attack that almost always finds a way to put points on the scoreboard, whether it be on the ground with Zach Charbonnet (1,334 scrimmage yards, 13 TDs) or in the air with veteran quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (3,020 total yards, 30 TDs). Both teams are likely to contribute to the Over.

Prediction: Over 59.5 (-110)

Best bet

Our strongest play is on the Over. Leary had a record-breaking season for the Wolfpack program and finishes the year with a soft matchup against a brutal UCLA secondary, so expect his major contributions to continue.

Chip Kelly has turned this Bruins offense around into one of the top units in the country, and they’ve been able to score points all season regardless of the matchup. 

Pick: Over 59.5 (-110)

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