UCLA vs Stanford Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bet Under on Dropping Pac-12 Total

Chip Kelly and the UCLA Bruins slide up to the Bay Area to face Troy Taylor’s Stanford Cardinal in Pac-12 play for a Week 8 nightcap.

Stanford enters this contest on the heels of college football's most exciting display last week. Trailing Colorado 29-0 at the half, the Cardinal roared back for a shocking 46-43 win in double overtime that marked the largest comeback in school history. 

Looking at the college football odds, the Bruins are 17-point favorites on the road while the total is set at 53.5. I break it all down in my free college football picks for UCLA vs. Stanford on October 21.

UCLA vs Stanford best odds

UCLA vs Stanford picks and predictions

Troy Taylor’s first season at Stanford has been a bit up and down — the Stanford Cardinal started the season with a bang, beating Hawaii 37-24, but proceeded to lose four straight games before notching last week’s thrilling victory over Colorado.

Taylor was previously the head coach at Sacramento State, where he went 30-8 overall and 23-1 in the Big Sky Conference across three seasons. That level of high performance earned him plenty of interest from FBS teams, and Stanford seems like the right fit after David Shaw was let go following consecutive 3-9 finishes. 

Stanford has rotated two quarterbacks this season in Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson. The latter started the game against Colorado but it was Daniels who received the bulk of the playing time and quite frankly excelled, throwing for 396 yards and four scores. Wideout Elic Ayomanor had a breakout game against the Buffs, exploding for 13 catches, 294 yards, and three TDs — all of which came in the second half.

The UCLA Bruins are 4-2 this season but haven’t been tested much, winning each of their three non-conference games but stumbling to a 1-2 start in conference play. True freshman quarterback Dante Moore is experiencing some difficulties lately and the offense hasn’t scored more than 25 points in any of its last three games while turning the ball over seven times in that span. 

Even though Stanford’s defense has proven mighty susceptible this season, I don’t have confidence in the Bruins lighting up the scoreboard. Stanford’s poor defensive metrics (132nd in EPA per play, 133rd in success rate) are skewed by terrible performances against USC and Oregon.

Sure, Colorado’s dangerous offense found the end zone plenty as well, but the Cardinal have performed fine defensively in its other matchups this year and showed an ability to tighten things up mid-game last week by holding the Buffaloes to only one score in the second half after getting lit up early on.

The Cardinal have the least-experienced offensive line in the country and therefore, it’s no surprise that it's struggled in both run blocking (121st in line yards, 98th in stuff rate) and pass blocking, ranking 116th in front seven havoc. That’s a huge red flag against this disruptive UCLA defense that ranks eighth in front-seven havoc, fourth in stuff rate, and third in power success rate.

Laiatu Latu (9 TFL, 5.5 sacks) is a game-wrecker and a mediocre-at-best Bruins secondary shouldn’t be exposed too badly considering there’s only one impact Stanford pass-catcher to focus on (Ayomanor) and the front seven should live in the Cardinal’s backfield. 

These teams have combined to go 4-8 O/U this season and I project another low-scoring contest as Stanford’s offensive line is completely overmatched while the Bruins currently have a one-dimensional ball-control offense. 

There’s still a 54.5 available at the time of this writing but the line movement indicates that this is headed downward — I’m in agreement with the market and would play it down a few points as well if it continues to drop. 

My best bet: Under 54.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

UCLA vs Stanford same-game parlay

Under 54.5 (-115)

Stanford +17 (-115)

+192 at FanDuel

I’ll add Stanford plus the points to create this two-leg SGP centered around my best bet on the Under.

I’ve been very critical of Colorado at points this season and therefore, this isn’t me overreacting to Stanford’s upset a week ago — rather, it’s more about taking the points with the home team in a matchup between two teams that aren’t exactly operating at the highest level, yet the spread is indicating a blowout. 

Stanford’s defense has been torched when it's been outmatched by the speed and athleticism of spread offenses like USC, Oregon, and Colorado. That’s not the identity of Chip Kelly’s offense anymore as the Bruins check in at just 117th in EPA per pass and 111th in passing success rate.

Moore is struggling mightily, failing to complete over 50% of his passes in any of his last three games while tossing three touchdowns and six interceptions over that span. For all of Stanford’s warts defensively, this shouldn’t be too difficult of a game plan for defensive coordinator Bobby April. 

Stanford has been blown out by USC and Oregon (combined score of 98-16) but has played other teams close, losing by a single score three times and winning twice. The Cardinal have shown an ability to keep things tight when not playing elite opposition and should only improve as the year goes on in a rebuilding year for Taylor.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UCLA vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis

UCLA opened at -14.5 but has since moved to -17 across the board at the time of this writing. The total opened at 57.5 and has since moved down to 53.5 at most locations. 

Something will have to give here as UCLA has been bad on the road while Stanford has failed to defend its home turf. The Bruins enter this contest after falling 36-24 to Oregon State to make it two losses in their last three games.

They're 0-2 in Pac-12 road games this season, falling to the Beavers and to Utah. The Cardinal are 0-3 at home this season, losing to Taylor’s former squad (Sacramento State), falling by a single point to Arizona, and getting their doors blown off by Oregon. 

The metrics are going to like UCLA in this contest, and that’s likely why we’ve seen line movement in the direction of the Bruins.

Kelly's squad holds a statistical advantage on both sides of the ball — they’re 22 spots higher in EPA per play offensively and 123 spots higher in EPA per play defensively. Combine that with the fact that some may be fading Stanford as last week’s comeback is not repeatable, and there’s a recipe for UCLA money. 

I still lean toward Stanford as the metrics are almost entirely due to the Cardinal’s inability to compete with talented like USC and Oregon. This is a well-coached team that is improving as the year goes on considering it entered as one of the least experienced rosters in the country.

Taylor’s plans are already showing some proof of concept and his team appears fully bought into his vision, so they should enter this home game brimming with confidence. 

UCLA vs Stanford betting trend to know

Stanford is 1-4 O/U across its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs Stanford.

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