UMass vs Auburn Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Wounded War Eagle

With one game under its belt, Umass travels to Alabama to face a daunting task against Auburn. 

Umass surprised many bettors and college football fans when they not only went to New Mexico State and won but did so convincingly. It’ll hope to surprise the college football world again, in a much more pronounced way, against Auburn this weekend. For the Tigers, it’s a new era. Enter Head Coach Hugh Freeze. He’s hoping to offer a rebirth in Auburn for a team that has been a disappointment in the past few seasons. 

What’s the best bet for this one? 

Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Umass on Saturday, September 2nd.

UMass vs Auburn best odds

UMass vs Auburn picks and predictions

Hugh Freeze was honest about his assessment of things to begin Auburn's spring camp: 

“It makes me feel a little bit anxious that I may be behind in our evaluation of who we are and what we can do,” Freeze said of his current roster. “Maybe we are. That's a feeling I have to battle.”

It makes sense. After all, considering that the Tigers lost all but one offensive starter, you’d be unsure of what to expect, too. Auburn will return just as it’s one starter from last season's offense in QB Robby Ashford. The Sophomore started the final nine games of 2022 with some so-so performances. He’s a significant question mark, but so is the rest of the offense that, again, mainly lost everyone. There are some known commodities like Jarquez Ashford at RB, but you have to wonder how proven they are. I’m expecting some hiccups, especially early, and that’s why I’m on the first half Under as my best bet.

We’ll talk about Auburn briefly, but let’s hit on Umass for a moment. 

The minuteman’s offense starts and ends with QB Taisun Phommachanh. The former Clemson and Georgia Tech player has talent — that’s how he played at their schools in the first place. Against New Mexico State last weekend, he controlled the game, threw for 194 yards, and rushed for nearly 100. You can succinctly say that if the Auburn defense can slow him down, they’ll stop Umass from scoring. Its defense should be up to that task, too. The cupboard is a bit thin, but the pedigree of new defensive coordinator Ron Roberts suggests a team that will get in the backfield. He comes from Baylor and is a disciple of Dave Aranda. I’m simply banking on him to build a game plan that completely shuts down a non-Power Five offense. It helps that he’s been left with eight returning starters to work with. 

Now, back to Auburn for a moment.

The strength of the offense is very clearly the running back room. That shouldn’t be a surprise; it is Auburn, after all. I expect it to grind Umass up at will on the ground. Jarquez Hunter showed some flashes last year and posted a 6.5 average yards per carry. Umass has improved a ton from last season; that much is obvious. However, it’s still woefully behind being able to compete with an SEC school in the trenches. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a bit of a conservative start to the season from Freeze. Multiple times, he’s done his best to temper expectations of a program that former Coach Bryan Harsin gutted. With that in mind, I’m expecting a lot of clock chewed in this one and a low-scoring affair.

A season ago, Freeze ran 71 plays per game at Liberty. That was above the national average and finished around 70th overall. Auburn, however, ran just under 69 plays per game, which was below the national average. In the early days of Freeze, I’m expecting that is what you’ll see more of. We’ve already seen in Week 0 how the “continuous clock” can have extreme effects on heavy run-based teams. Navy is the perfect example of that, and it saw its plays per minute cut in half from a season ago. I think the assumed (and rare) conservative nature of Freeze in this one, along with its strength on the ground, will combine for a slow start on the scoreboard.

My best bet: 1st Half Under 27.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

UMass vs Auburn same-game parlay

1H Under 27.5 points

1H UMass +1.5

+147 at FanDuel

Again, we’re left with a fairly bare cupboard to pick from, so we’re choosing to do a highly correlated parlay.

To start off our same-game parlay, we paired our best bet of Under 27.5 first half points with Umass grabbing the 1st half cover. Again, I’m not entirely sold that this Auburn offense scores more than 21 points in the 1st half, given everything Freeze has to rebuild. Umass will come into Saturday with some confidence and despite having some notable physical issues in the trenches, it should be able to put up enough resistance to grab the cover. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UMass vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been some line movement in this one. 

The spread opened 38.5 months ago and has fallen to 35.5 almost everywhere. That’s likely indicative of what we saw in the first game that Umass played, where it won by double digits as an underdog. Aside from that, though. There’s been some movement after Freeze’s comments in the Spring. His anxiety and constant playing down of expectations has set the stage for this season: it will be a work in progress, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

There’s no play for me on this side of things because there are far too many unknowns. Auburn finished the season, actually, on a decent note. It won two of its last three games and covered at the same rate. However, it’s tough to take much from those performances with an entirely knee coaching staff, but…

We’re on the Under, expecting a low-scoring game throughout, which naturally lends itself to Umass hanging around for a cover. I’m just unsure of how much Umass manufactures offense, and on the other side, I’ve noted how we should expect some hiccups with the new offense. Those will be stronger earlier, so I decided to go with the 1st half total rather than a complete game. 

Games for the Tigers went Over at an 8-4 clip last season, but its defensive downfall was the primary reason Harsin wasn’t retained. I expect an enhanced focus on that side of the hall, particularly against a team that Auburn can impose its will against. 

UMass vs Auburn betting trend to know

Auburn games went Over at 8-4 clip last season. Find more college football betting trends for UMass vs Auburn.

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