Week 0 in college football is a tradition unlike any other, as the truest fans indulge in some of the most overlooked Group of Five schools in the country.
One such school is New Mexico State, a program coming off just its second bowl appearance in over 50 years. That’s a credit to Jerry Kill, a known program builder who went 7-6 in his debut season with the Aggies.
For the first time — maybe ever — New Mexico State has momentum heading into the season, and favored by a touchdown in college football odds, Kill & Co. are poised to beat up on a UMass team that is coming off a dreadful 1-11 season.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for UMass vs. New Mexico State on Saturday, August 26.
UMass vs New Mexico State best odds
UMass vs New Mexico State picks and predictions
After winning just eight games in the previous four seasons before Kill’s arrival, the former Minnesota and Northern Illinois head coach had New Mexico State hoisting the Quick Lane Bowl trophy in year one.
A big part of his quick turnaround in Las Cruces was bringing in quarterback Diego Pavia from New Mexico Military Institute (a JUCO program), and letting him run the offense.
While Pavia’s numbers as a passer don’t jump off the page (1,450 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions), his ability as a runner unlocked the offense enough to support a surprisingly strong defense.
The Aggies' defense allowed just 23.9 points per game (47th in the country) last season which ultimately helped New Mexico State finish 7-6, including a 23-13 victory over UMass in late October.
In that game, Pavia threw for 194 yards and two scores while adding another 56 on the ground. With the emergence of receivers Kordell David and Jonathan Brady late last season (23 receptions for 385 yards and five touchdowns combined over the final three games), New Mexico State should be able to take advantage of the Minutemen defense again.
In Don “Dr. Blitz” Brown’s first season back as head coach of UMass (he previously ran the program from 2004-2008), his defense allowed 31.1 points per game (104th in the nation) and was especially bad against the run, ranking 102nd in rushing EPA on defense.
The Aggies return eight starters on offense, including three on the offensive line, and all three of their leading rushers from 2022 (Pavia, Star Thomas, and Jamoni Jones). That should set them up well to grind out yards on the ground against Brown’s flimsy rush defense.
Defensively, New Mexico State stacks up even better with defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling’s unit ranking 61st in defensive EPA per play against FBS teams and 51st in EPA per pass.
That may not seem awe-inspiring, but that puts the Aggies in the top half of the country. Given how tragic UMass’ offense looked last year, that’s all the home side needs.
Returning five starters on offense and breaking in a new quarterback, the Minutemen are coming off a season in which they finished second last in the country in offensive EPA per play (130th) and third last in passing EPA per play (129th).
UMass quarterback Taisun Phommachanh is at his third stop since 2019 after beginning his career at Clemson and spending 2022 with Georgia Tech. In limited action throughout his career, Phommachanh completed just 45.3% of his passes and threw more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (1).
To really hammer home how bad things are for the Minutemen offense, their leading rusher last year was backup QB Gino Campiotti... and he's now shifting to tight end for this season.
My best bet: New Mexico State -7 (-110 at bet365)
UMass vs New Mexico State same-game parlay
New Mexico State -7.5 (+100)
UMass team total Under 17.5 (-120)
Without any player props being offered at any of the big books, let's just go with logic in building this little two-legger and combine my best bet with the UMass Under.
It’s no secret that the Minutemen have had one of the worst offenses in the country the last few seasons, having failed to average more than 20 points per game since 2018.
UMass has even hit the team total Under in 10 of its last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 32% ROI). A bad offense returning its offensive coordinator with a new quarterback is usually a recipe for few points at the beginning of the season.
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UMass vs New Mexico State spread and Over/Under analysis
The Aggies have been the heavy favorite since the jump opening as -9.5-point favorites at some books and shifting between 9.5 and 6.5 since Tuesday. Most books have settled in with them as -7 or -7.5-point chalk at home.
While there isn’t much of a rich FBS history with either program, UMass hasn’t won more than four games since moving up from the FCS in 2012.
Bringing back Brown as head coach seemed like a move out of desperation by athletic director Ryan Bamford, who previously hired Walt Bell in 2019 (he was fired after going 2-23), and it’s off to a sloppy start.
Meanwhile, the retread hire of Kill (who has a 61-53 career record) is paying off for New Mexico State athletic director Mario Moccia. The Aggies won seven of their final nine games last season and outscored opponents 299 to 164 in those nine games.
The game total has been between 44.5 and 45 since opening and remains there with neither team being known for hanging plenty of points… UMass has only hit the game total Over in eight of its last 21 games.
The Minutemen’s offense is hard to trust when it comes to hitting the Over, as they scored fewer than 15 points in nine of their 12 games last season and only managed 20 or more three times.
It’s supposed to be a warm sunny day at Aggie Memorial Stadium on Saturday evening, but even with great weather, it’s shaping up to be a low-scoring affair.
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UMass vs New Mexico State betting trend to know
New Mexico State has cashed the moneyline in all of its last five games (+18.40 Units / 77% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UMass vs New Mexico State.
UMass vs New Mexico State game info
| Location: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, August 26, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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