We have a pair of Independents meeting tonight for a Week 10 showdown between the UMass Minutemen and UConn Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium.
The Minutemen are hoping to end a five-game losing skid while the Huskies are coming off a solid 13-3 home victory over Boston College.
Who will win this clash of the Independents? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for UMass vs. UConn below.
UMass vs UConn best odds
UMass vs UConn picks and predictions
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair on Friday night and as such, I'm backing the Under 40.5 as my best bet.
UMass averages 12 points a game and has scored 13 points or less in four of its last five. They’ve started at least three QBs this season — sophomore QB Brady Olson got the start last week and threw for 145 yards with one interception.
Olson started eight games as a freshman, throwing for 1,145 yards with eight TD passes and seven interceptions. It's the same story this year as last season: the running game is non-existent, the offensive line doesn’t keep his jersey clean, and bad turnovers come as a result.
The ground game is shaky at best as junior QB Gino Campiotti leads the team in rushing and might come in to spell Olson on Friday. He ran once for six yards last week, so anything is possible in the UMass QB carousel.
The Huskies' defense allows the 67th-most points in the college game. Their rushing defense allows 147 yards and the passing 241, but they should be able to thwart just about anything UMass offers.
UConn is very much the same story. They don’t score much more than UMass and are 124th in total yards. Frosh QB Zion Turner is having a decent season and has thrown four TD passes with one interception over his past five.
Leading rusher Nathan Carter is out for the season, and maybe sophomore RB Devontae Houston will dress after its their game with Boston College. Outside of that, the Huskies' offense shouldn't be relied on to move the ball.
UMass allows the 63rd-fewest yards in the college game but does allow 30 points per contest. Their rushing defense is below average but held New Mexico State to 111 yards in a losing effort.
We’ll see an offensive slog on Friday night where the defenses are better than the offenses. Neither side has been throwing the football effectively, so we’ll get plenty of clock-grinding rushing attempts with extremely ineffective passing games.
Both offenses convert an average of 4.5 third downs per contest, and too many 3-and-outs won’t put enough points on the scoreboard to exceed the total. UMass is 128th in penalty yards and usually kills any offensive drive they have.
It’s difficult to imagine either team scoring more than 15 points, making the Under my best bet Friday night.
My best bet: Under 40.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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UMass vs UConn spread analysis
I’m leaning towards the Minutemen covering the 15.5-point spread but would be much happier if this line moved to 16.
UMass has a much better defense and UConn won’t find it easy to score. The Minutemen are stingy against the pass, and offenses convert just 25% of their third-down opportunities. If they can contain the Huskies' ground game — and I believe they can — UConn will have a hard time scoring enough to cover.
The Minutemen have one of the worst offenses in the game, but they have scored at least seven points or more in their last four. UMass averages 14.5 third-downs per game against a UConn defense with a 45% third-down conversion rate.
UMass won't win, but it will cover the spread if they convert more than 4.5 of those, and I believe the Huskies will accommodate them.
UConn is 5-0-0 ATS over its five games this season and 1-2-0 in its past three meetings with UMass. The Minutemen are 2-3-0 ATS over their last five and 1-3-0 ATS as the away team this season.
If this line moved to +16, I'd turn this into a play. Otherwise, I'll wait to live bet or stay away from the side altogether.
UMass vs UConn Over/Under analysis
We’ve already discussed the total, but I have additional notes.
Both teams have +3 turnover margins and are adept at forcing turnovers. UMass has 10 turnovers, while UConn has 13. Add that to the poor third-down conversion rates of each offense, and it's hard to see these teams exceeding the total.
The Over is 2-6-0 over eight UMass games and 2-6-1 through UConn's nine games this season. The Under is 5-1-0 over the Minutemen’s last six and 4-0-0 over the Huskies' last four contests.
UMass vs UConn betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Huskies' last four games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UMass vs. UConn.
UMass vs UConn game info
| Location: | Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT |
| Date: | Friday, November 4, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
UMass vs UConn latest injuries
UMass vs UConn weather
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