NCAAF Underdog Picks for Week 1: Setting the Stage for Upsets

West Virginia moneyline

Best odds: +240 at BetMGM

The Penn State Nittany Lions come into the season with high expectations, but opening their campaign in Morgantown is no easy task. While the Nittany Lions won 38-15 last season at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers, this is a better team that finished last season much stronger than they began it.

Garrett Greene is capable of hurting Penn State with his legs as well as his arm, and he’s operating behind one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12. Penn State was an outstanding pass-rushing team last year, but Zuriah Fisher is injured and they lost defensive coordinator Manny Diaz this offseason. Greene’s escapability will allow him to create even when his line doesn’t hold up, and he showed last season that he can make big plays in the clutch.

On the other side of the field, West Virginia’s defensive secondary is solid enough to hold their own. Drew Allar had problems throwing the ball downfield last year for Penn State, and if he can’t stretch the field it’ll allow the Mountaineer pass rush to pin their ears back. That could be a big problem for a Penn State offensive line that is replacing three starters who heard their names called during the NFL Draft. 

This is arguably the biggest home opener at Milan Puskar Stadium this century, and the Mountaineer faithful will have the place rocking. West Virginia was one of only three teams last season to run for over 100 yards on the Nittany Lions, and a replication of that will take pressure off Greene and keep this game close enough for them to pull it out late.

Miami (Ohio) moneyline

Best odds: +125 at BetMGM

There’s no clear winner for the job left by Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Ben Bryant’s graduation. For an offense that struggled at times to gain yards, it’s concerning that someone hasn’t done well enough to stake a claim to the job heading into the opening weekend.

There are no such issues on the other sideline. After missing the second half of last season due to injury, Brett Gabbert is back as the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks quarterback. And with the majority of his starting offensive line returning as well, folks expect another strong offensive showing after an 11-3 campaign. He’s also got two outstanding receivers back in Cade McDonald and Javon Tracy.

Saturday will see him facing a Northwestern defense replacing almost all their key players in the secondary. He’s also going to be playing in a temporary stadium, as Northwestern plays away from Ryan Field due to renovations.

Not that playing at Ryan Field bothered Miami two years ago when they defeated Northwestern on a last-minute field goal. But their home for this season will hold just 15,000 fans and the layout will allow road teams to communicate fairly easily. That’s good news for the RedHawks, who have won seven of the 10 games in this series.

Miami is returning a large chunk of a defense that limited opponents to just 3.6 yards per carry a season ago. Northwestern couldn’t even reach three yards per tote with one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation. That puts more pressure on their quarterbacks to produce, whichever one is out there.

Given Miami’s success last season without Gabbert, I expect them to pick up right where they left off. This should be a low-scoring affair, but only one side has a quarterback who has shown he can be relied upon.

Southern Illinoios moneyline

Best odds: +500 at BetRivers

If I were a FBS head coach, there’s nothing you could say to convince me to schedule the Southern Illinois Salukis. Not only are they consistently one of the best teams in all of FCS, but they have a track record of going on the road and knocking off opponents while collecting a check.

The Salukis have collected an FBS upset in each of the past two seasons, defeating Northern Illinois last year and Northwestern in 2022. And while BYU is likely a tougher test and a harsher environment in which to make it a three-peat, they’ve got the tools to do so.

SIU’s defense is outstanding, led by linebacker Colin Bohanek. And that could be a big problem for BYU given its quarterback situation. BYU averaged just over 100 yards rushing per game in 2023, and an inability to utilize the ground game here would put pressure on either Jake Retzlaff — who topped 200 yards passing just once in four games — or transfer Gerry Bohanon, who hasn’t thrown an in-game pass in nearly two years.

BYU’s defense was prone to being hit last year by chunk plays in the run game. It also struggled to get to the quarterback last season, and the depth chart heading into this game shows few changes from a season ago. That’s helpful for SIU, who is breaking in a new quarterback for the first time in three years and can lean on its run game to help ease the pressure.  

BYU is the better team overall, but I don’t think it should be favored as much as it is. Southern Illinois has covered the spread in its last four games against FBS opponents, winning three outright. The Salukis have a knack for keeping games close, and BYU has serious question marks on both sides of the ball.