NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Razorbacks, Commodores Shake Things Up in SEC

Illinois moneyline

Best odds: +125 at bet365

The formula for the Illinois Fighting Illini is a simple one — keep Luke Altmyer clean, and the offense will do enough to win. It’s a formula that has led to the Illini going 6-2 so far this season, and one that should lead to an upset on Saturday.

The Illini have given up the most sacks in the Big 10 this year, allowing three per contest. That number goes up to 3.80 against conference opponents. Oregon only got three in its 38-9 win in Eugene, but the Ducks pressured Altmyer multiple times. Penn State took Altmyer down seven times, a big reason the Nittany Lions won 21-7 at home.

Still don’t believe me? Purdue nearly pulled off the upset over Illinois, losing in overtime — and they sacked Altmyer five times. Nebraska had just two sacks, and lost by a touchdown to the Illini at home. Michigan’s pass rush only got home once, and the Wolverines lost by two touchdowns.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have just six sacks in five Big 10 games this season, and only 13 on the season. The Gophers are allowing opponents to complete 62% of their throws, with their secondary thriving on getting interceptions and limiting opponents to short gains. They’ve also been aided by the fact they’ve faced two teams that couldn’t pass the ball in Iowa and Michigan, and heavy winds that limited USC to just 200 yards through the air. 

That can be offset with a solid run game, as the Gophers are giving up 4.4 yards per carry in conference play. Iowa beat Minnesota with 272 rushing yards compared to just 62 through the air. And Michigan nearly beat the Gophers following a similar script. 

The Illini offensive line is averaging 3.2 line yards per rush, while the Gophers are giving up nearly three line yards per rush on defense. And Illinois has shown the ability to bust big plays on the ground, with four runs of 30+ yards already in Big 10 play.

Minnesota isn’t built to capitalize on Illinois’ poor run defense. The Gophers have only 22 runs of 10+ yards on the season, and only 12 such carries in conference play. At just 3.41 yards per carry, they won’t be able to grind out the game should they have a lead. 

Illinois has played a tougher schedule and has the more proven quarterback. Altmyer has a 113.4 rating when operating from a clean pocket, and Minnesota’s lack of pressure will be its downfall. The Gophers have the worst third-down defense in the conference, and they’ll be unable to get enough stops to keep Illinois from getting the win. 

Arkansas moneyline

Best odds: +250 at Caesars

I’m not sure the limit on faces that could be put onto one milk carton, but I’d love to try getting the entire Mississippi Rebels offensive line onto one of those “Have you seen me?” panels. They’ve gone missing in action since SEC play began, and it’s why I like the Arkansas Razorbacks to get the upset here.

The Rebels are allowing three sacks and eight tackles for loss per game in SEC play, and PFF has their pass protection ranked among the worst in college football over the past month — including a pressure allowed rate that ranks in the Bottom 10 nationally. 

That’s made it difficult for Jaxson Dart to hit those big downfield passes, and is a key reason why he’s thrown just three touchdowns in his last four games. The absence of Tre Harris last week didn’t help, although he’s expected to return this weekend. 

The Razorbacks won’t be the best front unit Dart has faced this season, but they had four sacks last week in a 58-25 win over Mississippi State. They got to Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava four times as well in their upset win, and notched three sacks against Texas A&M in their rivalry loss. And the Hogs have posted their two best PFF pass rush grades the last three weeks, including an 84.1 score last week.

Mississippi has an excellent defense, which has offset a lot of the issues on offense. But Taylen Green has dual-threat capability and is part of a rushing attack that will best the Rebels. The Hogs are gaining 4.42 ypc in SEC play, third-most in the conference, and have been able to grind out drives with third-down conversions, ranking 12th in third-down success rate. 

The Rebels rank fourth in the SEC giving up less than three yards per run to SEC opponents, but that number has been aided by a high sack rate. Teams that commit to the run have been able to find some success in spurts. And while the Hogs likely won’t have Ja’Quinden Jackson available, Braylen Russell is a capable backup.

Russell ran for 175 yards on 16 carries last week, and gained 62 yards on eight carries against Tennessee. With nine explosive runs from just 43 carries, he’s a threat to hurt the Rebels at any time behind an offensive line averaging 3.2 line yards per rush. The Hogs rank 11th in EPA/run, and they’ll present a serious test to this Mississippi defense. 

Arkansas must protect the football and avoid careless mistakes. If they do, the Hogs should get enough on the ground game and generate enough pressure on defense to limit Dart and come away with the upset.  

Vanderbilt moneyline

Best odds: +235 at Caesars

You’ll have to excuse me for not giving the Auburn Tigers much credit for their win over Kentucky. Yes, the Tigers overcame an early 10-0 deficit to win by two touchdowns as Jarquez Hunter ran for 278 yards on 23 carries on the road, in their third straight game away from home.  

But to make them favored by more than a touchdown because of it is just funny to me. Let’s not forget the fact that the Kentucky defense flat out quit in the second half of that game, or that the Tigers were fortunate the Wildcats couldn’t capitalize on an interception midway through the first quarter that could’ve made it a 17-0 game.

The Vanderbilt Commodores lost to Texas last week at home by just three points. Prior to that, the Commodores won at Kentucky, took down Bama at home, and lost at Missouri in double overtime. Diego Pavia has thrown just three interceptions all season, and leads an offense ranked ninth nationally in EPA/pass and Top 25 in third-down success. 

In fact, the Commodores lead all SEC teams in conference play with a 47.4% success rate on third downs, while Auburn is middle of the pack allowing opponents to convert on better than 40% of their attempts. Vanderbilt’s offensive line has given up only four sacks to SEC opponents, and Pavia has the scrambling ability to negate Auburn’s pressure. 

Auburn doesn’t force many turnovers, and Vanderbilt is among the best nationally in protecting the football. The same can’t be said when flipped, as the Tigers have committed eight turnovers in five conference tilts. 

Auburn’s defense is solid, but Vanderbilt has beaten stronger ones. The Commodores have been the better team this year, they protect the football more consistently, and they can grind out long drives with Pavia’s playmaking ability. 

Not only is this spread far too large, but I think the wrong team is favored altogether. Vanderbilt will control the clock, limit Auburn’s run game, and come away with the win as it secures a bowl game.