NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: The Dogs are Barking

South Florida moneyline

Two weeks ago, people were discussing the possibility the Navy Midshipmen and Army Black Knights could face off twice in a row, with a possible spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. Now the Midshipmen are just hoping to even get a chance at that sequel, as they're currently on the outside looking in at the AAC Championship game.

The 51-14 loss to Notre Dame was nothing to be ashamed of. After all, it’s Notre Dame, and the recruiting stars are quite higher on one side of that matchup. But following it up with a defeat to a lowly Rice raises real concerns on both sides of the ball.

It’s not just that they lost, but how they lost that concerns me about the Middies. Rice ranks 75th defensively in EPA/rush, yet held Navy to just 140 yards on 40 attempts. The Owls also picked Blake Horvath off twice while allowing just 10 completions on 21 throws, with the Navy QB having thrown zero touchdowns and three picks in his last two outings.

The South Florida Bulls defense has holes, but most of them are in the passing game. The Bulls defense ranks 15th in EPA/rush, and 10th in third/fourth down success. Opponents average more than 7.5 yards to go on third down, and that could be catastrophic for a Navy offense ranked 72nd in 3rd/4th down success and 30th in average 3rd down distance.

South Florida is averaging the second-most tackles for loss in AAC play, two spots ahead of Rice, and has registered 23 of them in the past two games. The Bulls also allow just a 35.38% conversion rate on third down in conference play.

Offensively, the Bulls have found a bit of a spark with Bryce Archie, as he’s thrown for 200+ yards and two touchdowns in their last two victories. But USF has also been getting big chunks in the ground game, and that’s where Navy will struggle.

The Middies rank 89th in EPA/rush defensively, and they’ve allowed 26 runs of 10+ yards in five conference games. USF has shifted to running the ball heavily over the last two games, with 40+ carries in both contests, and they ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns against FAU.

USF has salvaged its season to get back to 4-4, and a win here would be huge toward bowl eligibility. Look for the Bulls' defense to get Navy behind the chains enough to disrupt its strong running attack, while their improving offense puts up enough points to pull the upset. 

North Texas moneyline

At a glance, this one looks easy enough for Army. The Black Knights lead the nation in rushing with an average of 340 yards per game and should punish a North Texas Mean Green defense giving up more than 177 yards per contest. And defensively, Army is allowing less than 200 yards passing per game. But that is a misleading stat, fueled by its easy schedule.

Five of the seven FBS teams Army has beaten so far rank outside the Top 100 in EPA/dropback, with only Temple (69th) and ECU (87th) breaking that mold. North Texas ranks 18th nationally and has a passing attack that will put serious pressure on the Black Knight defense and be able to put up points in a hurry.

Chandler Morris has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns on the year, with four games of 400+ passing yards. Army has been prone to giving up explosive pass plays despite its solid base stats, with 22% of opponent pass plays going for 10+ yards. North Texas has the third-most such plays this season and is gaining at least 10 yards on 32.5% of its pass attempts.

While not gaining many yards per throw, Army’s opponents are completing better than 64% of their passing attempts. North Texas has allowed just nine sacks on the season — an area the Black Knights have also struggled in this year — so Morris will have plenty of time to operate.

Additionally, the North Texas run game could cause some issues for Army. While the Black Knights rank fifth nationally, allowing less than three yards per carry, they have a run stuff rate of just 13% and have allowed an average of 3.4 line yards per rush this season. 

I don’t trust the Mean Green defense at all, and Army should put up plenty of yards and points. That said, North Texas has had two weeks to prepare for the triple-option attack. The offense is averaging 4.4 points per opportunity, and will keep hopes alive no matter the score or situation.

I’m expecting a shootout here, and it may only take one stop for the Mean Green to get the edge. If this game comes down to a drive in the final minutes, I trust the home team to be able to get the chunk of plays needed to pull out the victory.

LSU moneyline

Best odds (+125 at BetMGM)

There’s something magical about Death Valley at night, and Brian Kelly is 13-0 under the lights at home as the LSU Tigers head coach. With the Tigers needing a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, I expect yet another victory on Saturday.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have some terrific defensive backs, but this hasn’t prevented teams from hitting big plays through the air. The Tide have allowed SEC opponents to complete 12 throws of 30+ yards in five conference games while letting SEC quarterbacks complete 60.6% of their throws.

They’ve relied on turnovers to bail them out, leading the SEC with nine interceptions in conference play. And while Garrett Nussmeier’s had some problems with turnovers of late — he’s thrown at least two interceptions in three of his last four games — they’ve largely been the result of being pressured.

When kept clean this season, Nussmeier has thrown 19 touchdowns and four interceptions on 256 attempts. Compare that to just one touchdown and five picks in 77 attempts while feeling the heat, and you see just how important it is that the LSU line protects him.

The Tide haven't had the best pass rush this season, with a front seven havoc rate below 10% and a sack rate that places them in the middle of the pack. Against Georgia, the Tide had only eight hurries on 52 drop-backs as Carson Beck threw for 439 yards.

Even with LSU’s struggles to run the football, the offense has posted the 10th-best success rate on late downs and has converted 45.16% on third downs against SEC foes. Keeping drives alive is how Vanderbilt knocked off the Tide, converting 12 of 18, while Tennessee converted on six of 14 opportunities.

LSU’s defense hasn’t been great, but it’s been better in SEC play. The Tigers will need to be stronger against the run, but they’ve been limiting big pass plays and have 18 sacks in just four SEC contests. If LSU forces Alabama into obvious passing situations, it’ll be problematic for an Alabama line conceding a sack rate ranked 93rd nationally.

If this game were being played in Tuscaloosa, I’d be backing the Tide to get the win. But LSU’s defense will get a big boost from the atmosphere, and Alabama will remain winless on the road in the SEC.