What an opening week of college football, full of rivalries, shootouts, and some interesting scorelines. There were also some upsets on the table, with Florida knocking off Utah and Old Dominion shocking Virginia Tech. A few near-upsets were also on the table, including NC State barely hanging on against ECU — a game we told you was ripe with potential for an upset.
Week 2 is upon us, and I’m back to serve up a few games that will likely be much closer than the point spread would indicate. Here are the college football upset picks who have the best chance to open some eyes and spark some surrender cobras before it’s all said and done on Saturday!
College football upset picks for Week 2
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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South Carolina (+270) at Arkansas
Last weekend saw the Gamecocks struggle for a half, before pulling away from Georgia State for a 35-14 win. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler struggled at times, throwing a pair of interceptions, but finished with 227 yards and a touchdown. It was the run game that let the team down the most, as their top three backs gained just 83 combined yards on 25 carries.
Meanwhile, Arkansas welcomed Cincinnati to town, and led 14-0 at halftime before allowing the Bearcats to cut the score to 21-17. The Hogs were able to score 10 unanswered and held on to win 31-24 against one of last year’s College Football Playoffs participants. KJ Jefferson ran for a touchdown and threw for three more in an impressive offensive performance.
So, what makes me think the Razorbacks are vulnerable? First off, their defense simply wasn’t very good. They allowed Cincinnati to run for 224 yards and throw for another 223, and they had some issues with tackling on the back end of plays. Secondly, they will likely be without two starters in the secondary, as safety Jalen Catalon and nickel Myles Slusher are highly doubtful after sustaining injuries last weekend.
The Hogs struggled to get off the field on third down, allowing half of the 16 attempts to be converted. South Carolina had quite a few new faces on the offensive side of the ball, and they played much better in the second half, leading me to believe they’ll be fine this week. On the flip side, South Carolina’s biggest issue on defense was their inability to stop the run — something that Arkansas isn’t going to do a whole lot of.
The Razorbacks are favored by more than a touchdown, which I think is too much. While the Gamecocks may not walk away with the win, they’re going to play Arkansas much closer than the spread and can leave with an important road win if the Razorbacks aren’t careful.
PICK: South Carolina +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (+205)
Despite being the higher-ranked team and playing at home, the Pittsburgh Panthers are underdogs on Saturday as they host the Volunteers. Pitt’s coming off a hard-fought rivalry win, defeating West Virginia 38-31 behind a late pick-six, while Tennessee is nice and rested after a 59-10 beatdown of Ball State.
Much like the Backyard Brawl, this game looks to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. Hendon Hooker is a terrific quarterback for the Vols, as the Heisman dark horse threw for a pair of touchdowns while running for a third. Tennessee hung 569 yards of offense on Ball State, including 351 through the air.
On the flip side, Pitt’s Kedon Slovis will enjoy following up a strong effort by facing a Tennessee defense that featured little to no pass rush against Ball State, and allowed the Cardinals to throw for 269 yards. While they did force a pair of interceptions, Slovis took good care of the football last week, and the Panthers as a team committed just one turnover.
Tennessee brought in a lot of new talent through the transfer portal, and it looked good last weekend — but that was in an easy win against an overmatched opponent. West Virginia gave Pitt all it could handle, and the Panthers found a way to win.
I like a team at home that’s faced adversity and fought through it over a team that has yet to taste a real challenge going on the road for the first time. It’ll be a close game until the end, but the Panthers should have enough to pull off the home upset win.
PICK: Pittsburgh moneyline (+205 at FanDuel)
Georgia Southern (+1,500) at Nebraska
This is an interesting one for me, as I not only feel like the spread is far too high, I’m actually a bit tempted to take the underdog outright. Under Scott Frost, Nebraska has shown an inability to close out tight games, as his woeful record in one-score games is well known. Northwestern took the Huskers’ defense to task in Week 0, posting 528 yards of total offense, including 314 through their air, as Nebraska choked away in Dublin.
Last week, they defeated North Dakota State, but anybody who watched that game was far from convinced about the performance. The game was tied at 7-7 at the break, and with three minutes to go in the third quarter, Nebraska was locked in a 17-17 stalemate. Three straight touchdowns in the final 18 minutes provided a scoreline that flattered the Huskers, as Casey Thompson was able to throw for just 193 yards and two touchdowns with a pick, one of two turnovers on the day for the offense.
Georgia Southern has a solid offensive line, and a sixth-year quarterback in Kyle Vantrease, who isn’t afraid of big opponents after a decent career at Buffalo. Last weekend against Morgan State, he took to the air in Clay Helton’s new-look offense and threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, the Eagles forced four turnovers and held Morgan State to just 78 yards passing.
I don’t trust Nebraska, I don’t trust Frost, and I don’t trust Thompson. He’s a turnover-prone quarterback orchestrating an offense that has turned it over five times through two games against opponents you wouldn’t call very difficult.
The Huskers can’t stop the run, as they allowed North Dakota State to rack up 5.3 yards per carry on 33 attempts, and their secondary has shown they can be gotten to this season. Much like last week, I expect Nebraska to be in a fight come the fourth quarter — and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Frost’s seat become white-hot after this one.
PICK: Georgia Southern +24 (-110 at WynnBET)
