NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Shapen Holds Up for Mississippi State

Kansas State vs. Tulane (+9.5)

Best odds: +280 at BetMGM

Jon Sumrall is going to get a big-time coaching job within the next few seasons, and I expect him to have similar success at Tulane as he did the past two seasons at Troy. The former Kentucky linebacker lost at Kansas State a season ago with the Trojans, but will get revenge when the Wildcats visit on Saturday.

Tulane went into Manhattan two seasons ago and pulled off a seven-point upset, and the 17th-ranked Wildcats will be seeking some revenge of their own. But quarterback Avery Johnson was only average last week against UT Martin, throwing for just 153 yards on 21 pass attempts. 44 of those yards came on just one play, and he also threw a pick.

Johnson was very inaccurate in Kansas State’s bowl game win over NC State in December, completing only 14 of 31 pass attempts. If Tulane can slow down DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards in the ground game, it forces Johnson to make plays in his first road start. 

Tulane’s defense returns five starters from a unit that allowed just 113 rushing yards per season. Sumrall had Troy playing some of the best defense in the Sun Belt during his time at the helm, and he’ll have a solid game plan in place. 

The Tulane offense features multiple weapons, including USC transfer receiver Mario Williams. He caught four passes for 124 yards last week against SE Louisiana, as Darian Mensah looked solid completing 10 of his 12 attempts for 205 yards.

The K-State defense is strong, and the Tulane freshman QB will be tested. But he’s got the better weapons and is playing at home. Tulane will make fewer mistakes and pull off the upset.

Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse (+2.5)

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

Florida State’s performance last week should have folks wondering just how good this Georgia Tech team actually is. Let’s not forget they needed a last-second field goal to beat them in Ireland.

Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord will present a challenge greater than any the Yellow Jackets have faced so far this season. The former Ohio State signal-caller threw four touchdown passes last week in his debut against Ohio, and topped the 350-yard mark — both career highs. 

But McCord isn’t a one-man show. LeQuint Allen ran for more than 1,000 yards last season, and they’re both operating behind an offensive line that features five upper-classmen. McCord also has plenty of weapons on the outside, including Oronde Gadsden II, and they will test the Georgia Tech secondary early and often.

The other part of this equation is the Syracuse pass rush. Georgia Tech has yet to allow Haynes King to be sacked, but Fadil Diggs and company will be after him on Saturday. The defensive end knows King well, having been teammates with him at Texas A&M, and he had two of his team’s four sacks against Ohio.

The Orange got off to a slow start last weekend, but I expect McCord and company to come out putting up yards and points. That’ll force the Yellow Jackets to throw more than they’d like, and the home team will take advantage and win outright. 

Mississippi State (+5.5) vs. Arizona State

Best odds: +185 at BetMGM

Arizona State looked dominant last weekend when it defeated Wyoming in a 48-7 romp. But I think the market has swung too far in their favor, and I like Mississippi State to cover and likely win in this late game.

The Sun Devils got a pick-6 less than a minute into the game last weekend, and Wyoming quarterback Evan Svoboda threw a pass to the wrong team again just a few minutes later. It allowed the home team to get off to a flying start, leading 17-0 after just one quarter and causing the Cowboys to abandon any hopes they had of a ground game.

They likely won’t get that kind of start on Saturday. Blake Shapen has experience playing in tough road environments, having quarterbacked Baylor last season in games at TCU and Kansas State. He had solid performances in both those games, throwing just one pick in 75 attempts.

Shapen has taken quickly to his new offense, throwing for 247 yards and three touchdowns on 20 attempts last week against Eastern Kentucky. Head coach Jeff Lebby had Oklahoma’s offense ranked fourth last season in yards per game, and Shapen should thrive in his system. 

Arizona State added some weapons in the portal, but they still ranked 80th last season in passing yards against per play. They were the benefactors of two defensive touchdowns last week, but Shapen won’t be the bearer of such gifts.

The Bulldogs ranked 45th in the nation last season in yards allowed per rush, and they’ll slow down the Arizona State rushing attack from last week. That’ll force Sam Leavitt to make plays, and he’ll find it tougher to do against an SEC defense. Back the Bulldogs to get the win.