College Football Upsets and Underdogs Week 5: Hoosiers Can Silence Lincoln Faithful

A doink off the uprights last weekend from an Arkansas kicker capped off a poor weekend for our Week 4 upset picks, but we’re back with three more games for college football’s Week 5 slate that features strong underdogs.

With many schools entering conference play this week, it’s likely we will see a fair number of games that end up closer than the lines would indicate.

Here are the three games that could provide the best betting value for those looking to take points or bet an underdog outright in this week’s college football slate.

College football upset picks for Week 5

• Oregon State +10.5
• Central Michigan ML
• Indiana +5.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Oregon State (+10.5) at Utah

I understand why Utah is favored by so much in this game. Oregon State’s defense was terrific against USC last weekend, but their offense cost them the game as quarterback Chance Norlan threw four picks on the day.

Meanwhile, Utah has one of the highest-ranked run defenses in the country, and they held Arizona State’s Xazavian Valladay to just 30 yards on eight carries last weekend.

But is their run defense really that good?

In their opening-week loss at Florida, the Gators got 139 yards on 17 carries from their top two backs, and that’s not counting the 106 yards Anthony Richardson gained. Their other game against an FBS team saw them shut down San Diego State, but the Aztecs can hardly pass to begin with, and Utah simply loaded the box and dared them to throw.

Oregon State has struggled against the run this season, which bodes poorly for them in this match. However, their secondary has been terrific for the most part, especially last weekend against USC.

Utah doesn’t have much talent on the outsides, and their two-headed monster at tight end was split in half with the season-ending injury to Brant Kuithe.

The Beavers have covered each of their last four road games as double-digit dogs, and they’re one of just eight teams to be 4-0 against the spread this season. They’ve also failed to cover just twice in their last 12 games as underdogs.

While Utah likely wins the game, I think the spread is far too large, and the Beavers once again cover and make it a tight one.

PICK: Oregon State +10.5 (-110 at WynnBET)

Central Michigan (+222) at Toledo

I must preface this pick by saying that my prediction rests completely on the availability of Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson, whose status for the game is in the air after leaving their 33-14 defeat to Penn State last week with a shoulder injury. He’s thrown nine touchdowns through four games, but his four picks have been costly.

However, three of those came against Penn State and Oklahoma State. Central Michigan is lighting it up through the air this season, despite playing two ranked Power 5 schools already this season. Their 302 yards per game through the air rank 21st in college football, and they’ve been racking those up with consistent plays that move the sticks.

Their 74 plays of 10 or more yards are the 12th-most in the nation. When you exclude games against non-Power 5 schools, only seven teams have more than their 40 plays of at least 10 yards.

The Chipps are also doing decently against the run, ranking 47th in the country with just 118.8 yards allowed per game. They’re allowing just 3.37 yards per attempt, and that’s despite allowing Penn State to average 5.2 yards per carry last week.

Central Michigan will have the weapons to slow down Toledo’s run game and force them to pass, and while Dequan Finn has thrown for solid yardage this season, he’s thrown five picks to just six touchdowns. Toledo’s offense relies on keeping the ball and grinding down the clock, but they are in trouble if they’re unable to do that.

Defensively, the Rockets are going to struggle to put pressure on Richardson, with only a mere three sacks to their name in 2022. They’ve also registered just two interceptions and 14 passes defended this season, which puts them in the bottom third of all teams. 

If Richardson is able to go and take care of the football, the Chipps will have more than enough firepower to win this one outright.

PICK: Central Michigan moneyline (+222 at Caesars)

Indiana (+175) at Nebraska

I’m not entirely sure what to think of Indiana this season. They’ve won three of their four games, but they needed a late collapse from Western Kentucky to defeat them in overtime. The Hoosiers were also soundly defeated last weekend at Cincinnati in their first road game of the season.

All that said, this is a bad matchup for the Nebraska defense. Indiana’s ranked 28th in passing yards per game, and no team has thrown more time than their 202 attempts this season. Despite having the most attempts in the nation, they’ve done a solid job taking care of the football, with Connor Bazelak throwing just four interceptions.

Bazelak is getting the ball out quickly and taking what defenses give him, as Indiana's 5.80 yards per attempt are by far the lowest in the country. Nebraska’s pass defense has been porous, to put it nicely, allowing an average of 280.5 yards per contest.

They’ve also picked off just two passes this season, despite facing 161 attempts. Nebraska is allowing nearly two-thirds of attempts to be completed, and they’ve recorded just four sacks so far through four games.

The Cornhuskers also showed little signs of life last week despite a change in coach, as they gave up 49 unanswered points to Oklahoma after scoring on their opening drive. Indiana should be able to run quite a few plays, which is something Nebraska should fear after the Hoosiers ran more than 100 last week against Cincinnati.

If the Huskers are unable to get their pass rush going and get off the field, it’s going to be a very long day in Lincoln. It will allow the Hoosiers to stay in the game and possibly win it.

PICK: Indiana +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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