Utah State vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Aggies Annihilated by Relentless Tide

What’s more frightening in college football than a Nick Saban-led Alabama team? A motivated Nick Saban-led Alabama team.

That’s exactly what the Crimson Tide will be heading into this 2022 campaign after falling just short of another national championship, losing to rival Georgia in the title game.

Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young returns. So, too, does Heisman finalist and arguably the best defender in the country in edge rusher Will Anderson. Saban has also said this is one of the most fun teams he's ever coached.

See? Scary.

While season-opening opponent Utah State looks like a lamb being led to slaughter, is Bama good enough to cover a massive 42-point spread?

Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 1 matchup between Utah State and Alabama.

Utah State vs Alabama best odds

Utah State vs Alabama picks and predictions

My best bet: Alabama -27 first half (-110 at DraftKings)

It's hard to believe that a team that won 13 games, defeated Georgia in the SEC Championship, and was probably a Jameson Williams injury away from winning yet another national title has a chip on its shoulder, but here we are.

The Crimson Tide have the best offensive player in the country in quarterback (and reigning Heisman Trophy winner) Bryce Young and the best defensive player in the country in edge rusher Will Anderson. They also feature one of the deepest rosters in the best conference in college football.

While they lost some depth at the skill positions in the offseason, Saban did some great work in the transfer portal, bringing in running back Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech and poached wideout Jermaine Burton from rival Georgia.

Now, normally, Alabama is a terrific team to back in its opening game of the season, going 12-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points during the Saban era, but Utah State ruined that for us. After a disappointing performance against lowly UConn in Week 0, the line is a little too unmanageable.

The Aggies trailed the Huskies 14-0 to start the game, before coming back to win 31-20 in a game in which they were 24-point favorites. UConn ran the ball with ease against USU, rushing for 6.3 yards per carry. 

Now, I’m no genius, but Alabama might be even tougher to stop on the ground. And through the air. And everywhere.

The Tide could take their foot off the gas at some point in the second half, making the massive number of 42.5 a little iffy. However, Bama has been known as a reliable first-half bet over the last few seasons and that’s what we are banking on again here.

No one gets his team better prepared to start a season than Nick Saban. He’s been prepping for this matchup for months, while Utah State has only had a week to get ready for this huge matchup.

Bet on Bama to come flying out of the gates and cover the first-half spread.

Roll Tide.

Utah State vs Alabama betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

When this line first hit the board back in the spring, Alabama opened as a still-sizeable 31-point favorite. As the season approached, that number shifted to 38, and the cherry on top was the stinker Utah State put up against Connecticut. Bettors saw that, jumped on Alabama, and now the line sits at 42.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

It is a pretty rare sight to see a team go from a 24-point favorite to a 42.5-point underdog, but the Aggies have managed just that with the way their schedule has set up. Now, Bama is no stranger to big spreads. The Tide have laid 40 or more points five times over the last three seasons, going 3-2 ATS, including three times last season.

Alabama was a 54-point favorite against FCS Mercer in its second game of the season, failing to cover the huge chalk winning just 48-14, but covered a 45-point spread against Southern Mississippi 63-14 in the Tide’s fourth game of the year and did so again as 51.5-point chalk beating New Mexico State 59-3 in November.

In those two covers, Bama averaged 6.3 yards per carry. The Tide could have similar results in this one with Gibbs, after seeing how UConn was able to move the ball against the Aggies.

So, if I had to lean one way it would be to Bama, but it seems best to stay away from the full game side and stick with the first-half spread.

Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at 62.5 and most sportsbooks are still offering that number. The interesting thing about the total is that in the last five games where Alabama has seen a spread of 40 points or more, the Over is 4-1, with the Tide averaging 59.6 points per game. So, don’t be shocked if Alabama puts up a 50-burger in this one.

Usually, the opponents in these massive-spread games have anemic or non-existent offenses. Despite its struggles against UConn, Utah State led, by quarterback Logan Bonner, actually averaged 32.6 points per game last season, ranking 33rd nationally. 

Now, the Aggies aren’t going to get close to that average in this one, but Bonner should be able to engineer some late drives once Alabama takes its foot off the gas, making 10-14 points not unreasonable for the Aggies. So, I would lean towards the Over.

Utah State vs Alabama game info

• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network

Utah State vs Alabama key injuries

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Utah State vs Alabama weather

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Utah State vs Alabama betting trend to know

Alabama is 12-2 ATS in its opening game during the Nick Saban era. Find more NCAA betting trends for Utah State vs. Alabama.

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