Utah State vs San Diego State MWC Championship Picks and Predictions: Aggies Get Conquered

On Saturday, the San Diego State Aztecs face the Utah State Aggies in the Mountain West Championship Game. This one will be played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California, and the college football betting odds have San Diego State tabbed as a 6-point favorite playing in front of its home fans. 

Will the Aztecs head into bowl season as conference champions? Keep reading our Utah State vs. San Diego State college football picks and predictions for December 4. 

Utah State vs San Diego State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line has moved rather drastically since it opened at 3.5, as the Aztecs are now favored by as many as 6.5 on one book. The spread mostly sits at 6 at the moment, but it can also be found at 5.5. The total, which opened at 50.5, is mostly at 49.5 or 50 right now. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Utah State vs San Diego State predictions

• Prediction: San Diego State -5.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 49.5 (-114)
• Best bet: San Diego State -5.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/2/2021 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Utah State vs San Diego State game info

• Location: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
• Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Utah State vs San Diego State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Utah State: Andrew Peasley QB (Doubtful)
San Diego State: Kobe Smith WR (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

San Diego State is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Utah State vs. San Diego State.

Utah State vs San Diego State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

There aren’t many teams in the nation that have San Diego State’s combination of rushing offense and run defense. The Aztecs are running for 178.7 yards per game this season, which is the 51st-best mark in college football. They’ve also rushed for the 44th-most touchdowns this season, and it’s been the combination of running back Greg Bell and a group of dual-threat quarterbacks that have gotten the job done.

Jordon Brookshire is the one that will get the nod under center for this game, and he’s actually the most explosive of the group. Last week, Brookshire rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown against the Boise State Broncos after replacing Lucas Johnson at quarterback. He’ll make sure this San Diego State team is dangerous in the running game once again. 

Just two weeks ago, the Wyoming Cowboys shredded this Utah State defense on the ground, rushing for 362 yards in a 44-17 victory. This championship game could look very similar to that one, as San Diego State is similarly capable of dominating this contest at the line of scrimmage. In addition to having a very good running game, the Aztecs are second in all of college football in rushing defense. They’re giving up just 78.7 yards per game on the ground, and they’ve only allowed a total of four rushing touchdowns this year. That second number is also second-best in college football. 

With the Aggies likely to struggle to get things going on the ground, Utah State is going to have to rely way too heavily on the arm of Logan Bonner. Bonner is an experienced signal-caller that has played for Aggies head coach Blake Anderson for years — he followed him from Arkansas State — and he’s been making plays for Utah State all season. However, Bonner needs the threat of the run in order to be effective, and he could run into a lot of trouble if the Aggies fall behind in this game. The Aztecs are simply too good defensively and will force turnovers. 

Prediction: San Diego State -5.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Utah State is very good offensively and the team is going to score some points in this one. It might not be enough to help the Aggies keep this game close, but it’s just a tough ask for the Aztecs to completely shut down a Utah State offense that is averaging 31.2 points per game this year. As mentioned earlier, Bonner is a very experienced player and he’s going to lead this offense on some successful drives in this game. 

Meanwhile, the Aztecs are more than capable of running all over this Aggies team. Last week, San Diego State’s offense had it going in a win over Boise State, and that was after the team struggled to move the ball before making a quarterback change. With Brookshire playing the whole game on Saturday, don’t be surprised if the Aztecs score something like 35 points. 

Prediction: Over 49.5 (-114) 

Best bet

Last year, San Diego State earned a 38-7 victory as an 8.5-point road favorite against Utah State. Anderson has definitely turned things around in a big way in his first year with the Aggies, but that final score shows that there was a big discrepancy in talent between these teams just over a year ago. Since then, the Aztecs have only gotten better. 

Under head coach Brady Hoke, San Diego State is 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread when playing as a home favorite. The Aztecs are also 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread when coming off a home win under Hoke. Don’t expect them to do anything but perform at a high level here, as the Aztecs have shown that they’re capable of winning big games all season. And for what it’s worth, San Diego State’s 33-31 win over the Utah Utes was the most impressive win either of these teams earned all year. 

Pick: San Diego State -5.5 (-110) 

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