Times are changing down in the Swamp, as the Billy Napier era begins on Saturday when Florida hosts Utah. The former Louisiana coach takes over for Dan Mullen, and hopes to rebuild a program that isn’t used to needing last-week wins just to make a bowl game. They play host to a Utah squad that is coming off its first Pac-12 title in program history, and with something to prove as some doubt it deserves its high ranking coming into the season.
Will the Utes quiet the critics, or will the Gators be inspired to an opening-season win for their new coach? Find out in our Utah vs Florida college football picks and predictions for Saturday, September 3.
Utah vs Florida odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Utah opened as a 1.5-point favorite at most books, but they have steadily gone up to laying a field goal. The total has come down at least a point in most places from its opening number of 52.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Utah vs Florida predictions
Predictions made on 9/2/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Utah vs Florida game info
• Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Utah vs Florida betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Utah: None.
Florida: Arlis Boardingham TE (Out), Jaydon Hill CB (Out), David Coner OT (Out), Jack Miller QB (Out), Ricky Pearsall WR (Questionable), Jason Marshall Jr CB (Probable).
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Gators are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Utah vs. Florida.
Utah vs Florida picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After a 1-2 start to the season in 2021, Utah won nine of their next 10 games en route to a Pac-12 Championship win over Oregon. They defeated the Ducks twice in three games, by a combined score of 76-17, and left zero doubt as to who the best team in the conference was. However, they ended the season on a bit of a sour note, blowing a 14-point first-half lead in the Rose Bowl as they fell to the Ohio State Buckeyes by just three points in an exciting contest.
Now, they look to build on that successful campaign, returning much of a defense that was a Top-25 unit in the country last season. The physical unit allowed just 122.5 yards per game on the ground, and just 20.6 points per contest. They are led by a strong group of linebackers, and a Top-50 draft prospect in hard-hitting cornerback Clark Phillips III.
On the other side of the ball, Kyle Whittingham’s team was built on a strong run game and the play-action pass on the back of it. Tavion Thomas was a breakout star, rushing for over 1,100 yards with his 21 touchdowns being among the best in the country. His backup, Micah Bernard, also averaged better than five yards per attempt. The offense ranked 13th in rushing and 14th in scoring on the year.
The Utes didn’t pass much, ranking just 84th in passing offense, but they were efficient. Quarterback Cam Rising ran for nearly 500 yards on his own with six touchdowns, and threw for almost 2,500 yards with 20 scoring tosses compared to only five interceptions. Florida will have to key on a pair of dynamic tight ends if they hope to win this game. Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid combined to catch 86 passes for over 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns, with Kuithe averaging better than 13 yards per catch.
Tasked with covering those tight ends will be a Florida defense that moves on from beleaguered defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Patrick Toney’s aggressive blitzing scheme will hope to offset some of the gaps they have, especially at linebacker. All 11 starters return, but they will need to adapt to the new scheme quickly and perform better than they did a year ago when they allowed almost 154 yards on the ground per game.
The offense will be the real question mark, with quarterback Anthony Richardson taking over. With the transfer of Emory Jones to Arizona State, it’s Richardson’s time to show if his occasional flashes were anything to build on. He threw for 529 yards and ran for 301 last season, scoring nine touchdowns, but played very sparingly. He will have some help in his protection scheme, with AP All-American O’Cyrus Torrence following Napier from Louisiana to slot in at right guard.
Who Richardson gives the ball to is the real question. Florida’s 209 average rushing yards last season were good for 23rd in the country, but the top three rushers are all gone. The top two returning backs had a combined 87 carries last year, with Nay’Quan Wright rushing for 326 yards. Florida also lost their top receiver to the NFL Draft, but they did bring in transfer Ricky Pearsall from Arizona State to help fill the depth chart.
Florida is going to improve under Napier, who is already massively out-recruiting Mullen and restocking the cupboard for next season. Unfortunately, he won’t have those players on Saturday. Utah is a hungry team that has shown they have the talent and poise to take on very athletic teams, and while the sold-out Swamp can be imposing, this team is experienced enough to handle it.
Utah is rightly favored in this contest, and I like it to cover easily. I doubt it even comes close to the number, as Utah’s play-action passing will get their tight ends in favorable spots against Florida’s blitz, and they win by at least a touchdown.
Prediction: Utah -2.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Last year at Louisiana, Napier’s offense threw for nearly 263 yards per game, and ran for just 122 yards per contest. That might be a bit difficult to replicate early on, if Richardson isn’t clicking. Learning a new system is difficult for any quarterback, but it’s added pressure for a quarterback who isn’t very experienced and is playing a defense like Utah’s in his first game.
Utah wants to run the ball, control the tempo, and wear down its opponent’s defense. Rising only topped 200 yards passing in four games last season. That didn’t stop Utah from putting up points, though, as they scored at least 34 in 10 of their 14 games. Despite their struggle last year, Florida’s defense only allowed four teams to reach that mark, although Samford put 52 on them.
Florida’s game with Georgia last year ended 34-7, and that’s the type of game this feels like. The Bulldogs ran for 193 yards on 33 carries and controlled things with their defense. While Utah’s defense isn’t the same caliber of what the Dawgs had last season, their physicality should help keep the score down enough to stay Under the number.
Prediction: Under 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Utah scored at least 14 points before halftime in 10 of their 14 games last season. However, two of the four games where they failed took place before they changed quarterbacks, and none of them happened over the final eight contests. The shift from slow starts to strong ones also coincided with the emergence of Thomas, whose solid running helped spur the offense over the second half of the season.
Utah will want to establish the run game early so they can hit their tight ends off play-action, and doing so will also put pressure on Florida’s offense to score points. Florida often found themselves falling behind early last season, and while their defensive play will be improved over what Grantham put out, I still don’t see a high likelihood of them keeping the Utes Under two touchdowns in the opening half.
Pick: Utah first-half team total Over 13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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