Utah vs Oregon Odds, Picks and Predictions: Utes Hold Edge with Bo Nix Questionable

It looks like it will be another season where the Pac-12 won’t be sending a team to the College Football Playoff, but the race to get to the conference title game is the most exciting it’s been in years. We’ll get some more clarity about who will be playing in that game after Utah heads to Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon.

Both teams enter this matchup at 8-2 with identical conference records, so the winner will have a leg up when it comes to playing for the Pac-12 title. The Utes are the defending conference champion and come into this one winner of four in a row. Meanwhile, the Ducks hope to avenge a tough loss against Washington, although the status of quarterback Bo Nix is not looking good heading into this matchup.

I break down all the key matchups and bring you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for Utah vs. Oregon.

Utah vs Oregon best odds

Utah vs Oregon picks and predictions

The big headline heading into this pivotal Pac-12 matchup is obviously the status of Bo Nix. The Oregon quarterback took a rough hit in last week’s loss to Washington, was sidelined for a bit, but ultimately finished the game.

But Ducks’ head coach Dan Lanning hasn’t sounded too optimistic about whether Nix can play in this matchup, and oddsmakers certainly think they have a feel for whether or not Nix will play. 

The Ducks opened this matchup as 3-point home favorites and moved quickly to -2 after the status of Nix became uncertain. The line then jumped the fence midweek, and now it is Utah that is the 2.5-point chalk as of Friday afternoon. 

If it is confirmed Nix can’t go, that’s a huge loss for the Ducks. Say what you want about the former Auburn fizzle, the guy has been playing at Heisman level for most of the season. And while Ty Thompson isn’t bad, he’s not Nix (feels weird to type that).

Then there is Oregon’s other big problem, which is pass defense. The Ducks have been hunted through the air all season. The team ranks 125th in opponent completion percentage and 127th in opponent passing yards allowed per game. That could mean a big day for Utah quarterback Cam Rising.

The Utes' signal caller missed a few weeks with a knee injury, but he finally looked back to his old self in last week’s win over Stanford throwing for 219 yards and three scores. Rising has thrown for over 2,200 yards with 19 touchdowns with four interceptions for the season. The Utah offense is also balanced with running back Tavion Thomas, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with seven scores. 

And while this isn’t the same elite Utes defense we’ve seen over the years, they’re still good enough to give a backup quarterback plenty of problems. With no Bo and a suspect pass defense at less than a field goal, I’m laying the points with the Utes.

My best bet: Utah -2 (-110 at DraftKings)

Utah vs Oregon spread analysis

As noted, this line has seen a lot of movement based mostly on the expected status of Bo Nix. The Ducks went from short favorites to short underdogs during the middle of the week. That’s telling me the books are fairly confident that Nix won’t play in this game.

While moving Utah to a 2-point favorite is a big adjustment, I’m still not sure it’s big enough for all the reasons I listed above.

Utah vs Oregon Over/Under analysis

While the spread saw a pretty big swing in preparation of Nix being ruled out, the total has only dipped a point and a half as of Friday afternoon, moving from 62 down to 60.5. In this case, I would take the opportunity to lean toward the Under.

It can’t be understated what Bo Nix does for this Ducks offense. He's thrown for 2,774 yards while completing 72.8% of his passes with 24 touchdowns compared to just five picks. He has also added 548 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Those are some big shoes for a freshman to fill.

You can expect Dan Lanning to take some of the weight off of Ty Thompson and slow down the game by leaning heavily on the running game, as running backs Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington are both more than capable backs. 

While Utah and Cam Rising will certainly try to push the ball down the field through the air, the Utes still prefer to run the ball ranking, rushing the ball in just over 55% of their plays.

On top of that, Utah’s defense seems to be peaking at the right time and is probably salivating at the thought of a matchup with a freshman quarterback. 

If Nix plays, I think this would be an easy call on the Over. Without him, I'm hitting the Under. 

Utah vs Oregon betting trend to know

Utah is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following a straight up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Utah vs. Oregon.

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