Utah vs USC Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Can Caleb & Co. Regroup in Week 8?

Two Top-25 Pac-12 teams are set to face off for a final time before conference realignment as the No. 14 Utah Utes head to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to face the No. 18 USC Trojans. 

These two schools don’t exactly qualify as rivals, but there’s certainly some bad blood after last year’s two unforgettable matchups. First, Utah prevailed for a 43-42 instant classic victory at home in the regular season, and then it upset USC 47-24 in the Pac-12 title game. 

Lincoln Riley & Co. will look to exorcise some of those demons here in Week 8, but doing so will require a bounce-back performance after last week’s ugly 48-20 loss to Notre Dame. 

Looking at college football odds, USC is expected to get back in the win column in conference play. I examine whether or not that’s a reasonable expectation with my best bet and provide my free college football picks for Utah vs. USC on October 21. 

Utah vs USC best odds

Utah vs USC picks and predictions

It’s been a strange season for the Utah Utes as arguably their two best offensive players, quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, have not appeared due to injury.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham is notoriously mum on player injury news and it was previously believed that both could be ready for the opener. Instead, neither has played a snap and there’s doubt whether either or both will appear in a game at all this season. 

Elsewhere on the injury front, veteran tight end Thomas Yassmin was announced out for the season earlier this week. That’s yet another blow for a team that has lost numerous contributing players — running backs Micah Bernard and Chris Curry, receiver Mycah Pittman, and defensive end Logan Fano are all out for the season. Safety Cole Bishop will miss the first half after being called for targeting against Cal. 

Bryson Barnes is expected to receive the start at quarterback, and it’s hard to have a bigger juxtaposition between two signal-callers than what you’ll see on Saturday night. The USC Trojans have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams looking for a bounceback performance after a letdown at Notre Dame, while Barnes is essentially Utah’s fourth-string quarterback and has six touchdowns to four interceptions in his career.

Utah safety Sione Vaki has been utilized in the backfield lately and is coming off a big week (158 rushing yards, two touchdowns), but if we’re comparing a Wildcat offense to the likely No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft then it’s a tough look for Utah. 

After suffering six sacks against the Irish, Williams will hope for better protection this week from his offensive line. That will be a challenge against a strong Utah defensive front that ranks ninth nationally in front-seven havoc led by defensive end Jonah Elliss (13 TFL, nine sacks).

He’ll look to hit some deep shots against a Utah secondary that is terrific on a down-to-down basis (second in success rate) but is burnable deep (100th in passing explosiveness). I believe Utah’s corners can be exposed in this matchup — they’re the weakness of the defense and are not on par with Notre Dame’s corners, and that’s troubling in this matchup with USC’s skill position talent. 

The Utes have elite metrics defensively but haven’t truly been tested yet this season. Three different teams have had decent showings against them on a per-play basis — a Graham Mertz-led Florida team averagered 5.3 yards per play, while Baylor (5.9) and Oregon State (5.8) moved the ball in the Utes’ only two road games. 

You can believe the sky is falling for Caleb Williams and the USC offense after one bad game if you want to, but I won’t be joining you.

Williams is a special talent and Lincoln Riley will have his offense ready to get back on track here at the Coliseum against an outmatched Utah team. Utah has gotten the better of the Trojans previously, but this year’s team looks much different with a lack of offensive firepower (115th in EPA per play).

Utah is great within its home confines of Rice-Eccles but has shown vulnerabilities on the road. The Utes were outgained by 0.7 yards per play in Waco against a 2-4 Baylor team and by 2.7 yards per play in Corvallis against Oregon State.

This is a prime bounceback spot for USC as the offensive discrepancy is as large as it gets. Rightfully so, much has been made about the Trojans’ defensive ineptitude over the last two seasons, but this should be a fairly easy game plan for even Alex Grinch — load the box on every play and sell out to stop the run.

Bear Alexander and this front ranks 32nd in front seven havoc and 45th in power success rate, which is actually the strength of the defense, whereas Utah’s offensive line has underperformed and ranks 103rd in line yards.

My best bet: USC -7 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Utah vs USC same-game parlay

USC -7 (-110)

Caleb Williams Over 278.5 passing yards (-114)

Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing TDs (-220)

Ja'Quinden Jackson to record 60+ rushing yards (-194)

50% boost available

+553 +829 at FanDuel

Here’s a four-leg SGP centered around laying the points with USC. I think Caleb Williams’ player props are being undervalued this week after a poor showing against Notre Dame.

Here’s the thing — Notre Dame’s defense is better than Utah’s despite them both having a similar reputation. That’s especially true at the cornerback position, where the Utes will be at a disadvantage against USC’s speedy receivers. I expect Riley’s game plan to involve attacking a Utes secondary that ranks 100th in passing explosiveness with downfield shots. 

Lastly, I’ll add Utah running back Ja’Quinden Jackson to rush for at least 60 yards. The former Texas quarterback was hampered by an injury to start the year but finally looked right last week, handling 22 rushes for 94 yards and a touchdown against Cal.

The Trojans rank 117th in EPA per rush and 110th in rushing success rate on defense, so Jackson should have every opportunity to exceed this number as he receives another big workload on Saturday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Utah vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a decent amount of line movement this week as USC opened at -5 but has since moved up to -7. Early lines that came out before this week even had USC as low as -2.5. I happen to agree with that line movement and still like USC at the current number, but going past the key number of 7 would be a difference-maker. 

The total has also been on the move, opening at 56 but currently residing between 53 and 54 depending on where you look. I have a lean toward the Over, although I have enough reservations that I’m not making it to the betting window. 

I do think USC’s offense will find success here at home, but there may be a lack of possession considering Utah likes to hold on to the ball and slow the game down, which will likely be the game plan here on the road to shorten the contest and increase the likelihood of an upset.

Utah opponents are averaging just 65.2 plays per game this season, and the Trojans haven’t exactly been in a hurry anyway this season by averaging 66 plays per game offensively. 

On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to imagine that Utah’s offense is blanked here by a suspect USC defense. The Utes will look to run the ball early and often against a Trojans defense allowing 152.4 rushing yards per game. 

Some might point to the fact that USC surrendered 48 points last week to a bad Notre Dame offense, but the Irish managed just 251 total yards in that spot and benefited from five turnovers.

Utah’s offense is similar to Notre Dame’s in that it lacks dynamism and the passing attack isn’t a real threat on most plays. My reservation here is that this seems like a very easy game plan for USC defensively and the defensive line has enough talent to cause some disruption on most plays. 

Utah vs USC betting trend to know

Utah is 1-5 in its last six road games against USC. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs USC.

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