It looked like the Boise State Broncos were sitting pretty. Not only were they thumping the UCF Knights in their season opener — but were also making a statement about who the top Group of Five team was in college football.
Then Dillon Gabriel and the second half happened, and the Broncos choked away the game. Are the Broncos capable of bouncing back and covering a big college football betting spread against the UTEP Miners... Or are they in for another letdown?
Find out with our free college football betting picks and predictions for UTEP vs. Boise State on Friday, September 10.
UTEP vs Boise State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Boise State opened this matchup as 27-point home favorites and has been quickly bet down to -26, while the total hit the board at 55 and has already been bet up two points to 57. Follow the live widget above to track the rest of the odds moves up until kickoff, plus be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets and view the full line movement for this game.
UTEP vs Boise State picks
Picks made on 9/7/2021 at 11:07 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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UTEP vs Boise State game info
• Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
• Date: Friday, September 10, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
UTEP vs Boise State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
UTEP: Kelton Moss DT (Questionable), Deion Hankins RB (Out).
Boise State: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UTEP is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Mountain West opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for UTEP vs. Boise State.
UTEP vs Boise State predictions
Boise State -26 (-110)
Boise State was leading UCF 24-7 before the Knights scored a touchdown to close the first half, making it 24-14. The Dillon Gabriel and UCF poured it on in the second half on their way to a 36-31 victory as 5.5-point favorites.
The positive takeaways in that game for the Broncos? Quarterback Hank Bachmeier and wide receiver Khalil Shakir had some awesome chemistry, connecting on five passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns — but the run game and defense struggled.
Meanwhile, UTEP is not in a position it is used to — winning football games. Although playing New Mexico State and FCS Bethune Cookman certainly helps, the Miners have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their first two games.
The Broncos gave up 573 yards of offense in their opener and while the Miners have had some offensive success so far this season, they are nowhere near as talented as the Knights. The wins are good for the UTEP program but they are walking into a tough situation here.
Boise State will come into this game knowing it let a big win slip away and will aim to take its frustration out on the Miners. Plus, the Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at Albertsons Stadium and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when laying 20 points or more.
Boise State Over 22.5 first-half team total (-110)
Boise State came out flying against UCF, putting up 24 first-half points, and there is no reason to think they can’t do the same here. Bachmeier set the tone early for the Broncos, picking the Knights apart in the intermediate passing game.
You also know the Broncos will want to get the run game going after their backfield totaled just 46 yards on the ground last week. That’s in part to starter George Holani being a last-minute scratch before last week’s game. If healthy, Boise will get back a player who has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in his career.
If the Broncos can have a balanced attack, they will be tough to slow down and should get out to a fast start against a UTEP team that hasn’t faced any real sort of competition yet.
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