We have Conference USA in the house for a Wednesday night matchup featuring a pair of struggling teams looking to get their respective seasons back on track when UTEP visits FIU at Riccardo Silva Stadium.
College football odds have been bouncing around due to the uncertainty regarding the UTEP quarterback situation, but we have a good grasp on the situation and have found the best numbers for Wednesday’s matchup.
Can UTEP pull off an upset over FIU? Find out as we share our best free college football picks and predictions for UTEP and FIU on October 11.
UTEP vs Florida International best odds
UTEP vs Florida International picks and predictions
UTEP Miners head coach Dana Dimel plans to announce the starting QB on Tuesday, and if he names Gavin Hardison — I believe he will — that betting line will jump back to somewhere near the -130, and we’ll end up on the right side of it.
If Hardison doesn’t suit up, frosh QB Jake McNamara will. McNamara rushed for a TD and handled the task at hand well last week in emergency second-half duty in UTEP’s 24-10 home loss to Louisiana Tech.
McNamara will have had a week of prep time and has all he needs to win this game behind the RBs Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr, who have combined for 746 rushing yards with three TDs and face a Panthers defense allowing the 127th most rushing yards in the FBS this season.
UTEP will eat on the ground and rely on its defense to take care of the rest.
The Miners defense has been stuck in some bad situations due to the offense having one of the worst turnover margins in FBS. Still, their passing defense is much better than the rushing defense, which bodes well for this group, as FIU freshman QB Keyone Jenkins loves to sling the football but has more interceptions than TD passes.
Jenkins has thrown for 1,258 yards with five TDs and six interceptions with an additional 88 rushing yards with three TDs. Wideout Kris Mitchell has 31 receptions for 550 yards and four TDs.
FIU QBs suffer nearly four sacks per game, and we should see the Miners apply the pressure behind a defense averaging roughly two sacks per contest. FIU has a mediocre rushing offense, and UTEP should be able to contain the toothless Panthers rushing attack.
Finally, UTEP hasn’t caught many breaks thus far this season, but they should be able to beat FIU with or without Hardison. The Panthers' offense can score points, but the Miners' defense is better than advertised, and I expect them to slow down a less-than-100 % Jenkins enough for the offense to outscore FIU and win this contest.
My best bet: UTEP moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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UTEP vs Florida International same-game parlay
UTEP ML (+115)
Under 43.5 (-115)
We've already shared our reasoning for UTEP winning this game, but I also like the Under 43.5. Both teams have identical Over/Under records of 2-4-0 to the Under this season and I expect this trend to continue tonight.
The UTEP defense is probably better than their numbers and the UTEP offense will likely keep the ball on the ground and wind the clock. FIU is a good tackling team and I expect plenty of defensive stops and not much scoring by both units tonight. —
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UTEP vs Florida International spread and Over/Under analysis
UTEP leads C-USA in time of possession, while FIU plays much faster with the ball, ranking last in the conference at 27:37. The total is listed between 43.5 and 44 across the industry, with a little extra vig on the lower number. The Panthers are allowing 445.8 total yards per game. They allowed 439 yards last week at New Mexico State and 520 yards to Liberty in their last home game.
This contest features two of the worst second-half scoring offenses in the country, but that could change Wednesday as both sides hemorrhage second-half points. UTEP allows the 94th most, while FIU is 89th with 27 second-half points allowed.
The Over is 6-1 in the Miners' last seven games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, and the Over is 4-1 in the Panthers' last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
UTEP vs Florida International betting trend to know
The Miners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Florida International.
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UTEP vs Florida International game info
| Location: | Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
UTEP vs Florida International latest injuries
UTEP vs Florida International weather
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