UTEP vs Jacksonville State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gamecocks Struggle in FBS Debut

How sweet it is that college football is back. One of the headliners of Week 0 is an exciting matchup when UTEP heads to the Sunshine State to face Jacksonville State and this week's college football odds can't split the two teams.

It'll also have the rare distinction of being an opening conference matchup for both sides as they start their Conference USA campaigns.

Things were disappointing last season for the Miners. They finished 5-7 and never really found their footing after conference realignment shook up stuff for them. The losing season was their fourth in the last five years under head coach Dana Dimel. On the other side, Jacksonville State will be making its FCS debut. They've been good for the last decade; in fact, they've been outstanding. The Gamecocks will enter its first season at the Division I level, having won seven conference titles since 2014 at the FCS level. 

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks and predictions for UTEP vs. Jacksonville State on Saturday, August 26.

UTEP vs Jacksonville State best odds

UTEP vs Jacksonville State picks and predictions

Head coach Dana Dimel did something different this offseason. He got more involved with the quarterback room than he ever had before.

"This is the first year that I've worked with Gavin in position meetings because obviously, as a head coach, that's sometimes hard to take that time and spend the time in positions with the quarterback," Dimel said yesterday.

Dimel knows the expectations for this season are higher than they've been for a while. Yes, UTEP comes off a 5-7 season but returns veterans across the field, including a RS Senior at QB in Gavin Hardison. It also has a win total of 5.5, which is juiced to the over in most places, implying the public sees this team as closer to a bowl team than not. I'm backing on that experience, urgency, and public expectation and grabbing the Miners on the spread.

The story of this game is deciding between taking some known pieces against a side with a winning culture but a bunch of fresh faces. I'm going to side with the experience. The Miners return seven starts to its offensive line, and they should be able to impose their will here. They'll be tasked with going up against a Jacksonville State defensive line that I have questions about competing at this level. It returns just one real notable name in Chris Hardie. He did the bulk of the work last season with 15.5 TFLs. Around him, though? There's little. Again, the story is about fresh faces who could step up but I have plenty of questions.

On the other side of the ball, at the heart of Jacksonville State's DNA, is running the ball. They did it quite well a season ago, finishing 5th at the FCS level in total yards. The running backs will get things done by committee, but Te'Sean Smott leads it. The problem for the Gamecocks is it'll be going up against one of the strengths of the UTEP team. They return a good amount of starters from a team that led Conference USA last year in yards allowed. Brynton Thomas is a talented edge rusher at 6-1, 246 pounds. He is another senior with experience at the FCS level, and the savvy to win blocks – traits the team he's going against may not have this early this season.

I'm anticipating the Miners to win both wars in the trenches on offense and defense. When you do that in football, you're difficult to beat. That task becomes more difficult if you're a team getting its first taste of Division I football. Jacksonville State will be ready to play, but they may be unable to overcome the war in the trenches. A lot will be put on its starting QB, Zion Webb. He has capable legs, but he'll be forced to pass some, and I'm comfortable fading a player who threw for ten touchdowns but nine interceptions a season ago. 

My best bet: UTEP -1 (-110 at FanDuel)

UTEP vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay

UTEP -1.5

UTEP to score first

+200 at bet365

We're not reinventing the wheel here for two reasons. One is because there aren't many market options available for this one. The second, though, is the most important; one team should have a clear advantage to get on the scoreboard first. We're pairing that with our best bet. 

In a vacuum, I will take the team that's been playing football at the FBS level for several years to score first against the one that's making its debut. At a deeper level, though, the Miners should come out sharper. Dimel has had a poor time in his five seasons at UTEP. He faced a team that needed plenty of work when he took over, so the 17-40 record shouldn't be much of a surprise. But this is their best chance to make a bowl that they've had in a long time, and if they're going to do that, then they can't lose this game. I'll back them to score first because the veterans make up its offensive line. It also helps to have a RS QB behind center who threw for over 2,000 yards a season ago. I expect them to have more urgency and to lean on their experience to come out strong. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTEP vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis

I should have mentioned Jacksonville State's Head Coach, Rich Rodriguez, who will lead them into their first FCS season, earlier, but I will discuss him for a bit here. 

You likely know the name if you followed the sport. Rodriguez has been at many stops, including West Virginia, Michigan, and Arizona. With that, he knows what it takes to succeed at this level of football. However, his opening week track record could have been better. 

In his six seasons at his last stop in Arizona, Rich Rod went just 1-3 ATS in opening-week games against D1 opponents. It's another column that checks favorably for UTEP here and why I'm rolling with them as my best bet. I projected this number at -3.5 in favor of the Miners, so getting the free few points is a nice discount.

I have no genuine opinion on the total in this one. Depending on who you ask, college football's new rules of the clock not stopping could take off anywhere from 4 to 8 plays per game. Based on some preliminary research, I lean to the higher end of things. With that in mind, my lean on most early totals will be to the Under. Of course, that's in a vacuum, but it's the general notion that I'm approaching the season. 

Opening totals this season are down about 1.5 points on average from 54.8 to 52.6. That's a lot of movement, but it's not enough. As for this game, if UTEP can dictate things, then the game will be played in the trenches more, which certainly leans toward the Under. 

UTEP vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know

Rich Rodriguez is 1-3 ATS in his last four opening-week games against Division 1 opponents. Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Jacksonville State.

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