UTEP vs Rice Odds, Picks and Predictions: Miners' Run Game Makes the Difference

Two teams fighting for their postseason hopes will square off tonight as the 4-5 UTEP Miners travel to Rice.

The Owls are 4-4 and coming off an embarrassing defeat, and face their bitter rivals for the 97th time in their history with hopes of moving to within a win of bowl eligibility.

Both teams are struggling in different areas coming into this contest, but one program has an edge that should help them perform well.

Find out what that is in my UTEP vs Rice college football betting picks and predictions for Thursday, November 3. 

UTEP vs Rice best odds

UTEP vs Rice picks and predictions

Self-inflicted mistakes ruined UTEP’s hopes early and often in its 24-13 defeat to Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The Miners dropped multiple passes in the game, including what would have likely been a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the third quarter. They also threw an interception in their own half and had a punt blocked, both of which led to touchdowns for the Blue Raiders.

The defeat pushed the Miners to 4-5 on the season, and now sees the program needing two wins in their final three games — two of which are on the road — if they hope to become bowl eligible. Their problem is that they don’t do anything particularly well.

Quarterback Gavin Hardison has thrown just 10 touchdowns vs. eight picks. They average just 5.1 yards per play on offense, and are among the worst teams in college football at taking care of the football.

Not that Rice is much better, mind you. The Owls just lost to Charlotte, a team that had lost four straight and fired their head coach the week before. And they didn’t just lose, they were dominated. Rice led 14-7 after the first quarter and was outscored 49-9 the rest of the way. It allowed more than 500 yards of offense while gaining just 370 against one of the worst defenses in college football.

Much like UTEP, there are questions at QB. TJ McMahon has thrown 16 touchdowns this season but 11 picks as well, and has one of the lowest quarterback ratings of any qualified starter in the country. It ranks 89th in passing yards per game and has struggled all season to protect McMahon. That could be a real problem, given the Miners rank 41st in getting to the quarterback this season.

Where I do believe UTEP has a better chance to win this contest is its running game. Last week against Middle Tennessee, the Miners struggled with the ground game as they ran for just 101 yards. Running backs Deion Hankins and Ronald Awatt carried the ball just 25 times combined for 116 yards as Hardison lost 15 due to sacks.

But the week before against FAU, the duo combined for 32 carries and 197 yards. In the win over Charlotte, Hankins and Awatt rushed for 200 yards on 33 carries.

Charlotte was able to run for 239 yards at 5.6 yards per carry on Saturday against Rice, and the Owls have shown little ability this season to slow teams down on the ground. I expect the Miners to recommit to their run game this week, as it’s been their most successful means of attack in wins this season and should help them limit their turnovers. In doing so, UTEP will keep the score close and cover the spread as it hopes to salvage its bowl chances. 

My best bet: UTEP +3.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

UTEP vs Rice spread analysis

Rice opened as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday and the line has not moved at all since. As the home team, the spread basically indicates that the Owls would be slightly favored should they face UTEP at a neutral site. That makes sense, given their .500 record against a team that has lost more than they’ve won.

Rice has lost just once at home this season, the last time out against Charlotte. Three of its four victories have come at home, while three of its four defeats have come on the road. The Owls have not lost twice in a row all season but were also just handily beaten by a team that UTEP defeated by six points on the road.

As for UTEP, it lost three of its first four games this season but has rebounded with three wins in its last five games. The Miners’ only win in four attempts away from home was the aforementioned win over Charlotte, having gone 1-3 on the road thus far.

UTEP has covered the spread in just four of the last 18 matchups with Rice, including just once in its last nine games. In addition, the favorite in the series has covered the spread four of the last five times. However, Rice has not covered in six Thursday night games. 

UTEP vs Rice Over/Under analysis

Unlike the spread, the total has moved around a fair amount since opening at 48 points. It quickly jumped up to 50 before settling back down at 49, with a few books offering 48.5 currently.

UTEP has scored fewer than 25 points in four of its five defeats this season, and has held its opponents to 21 or fewer points in three of its four wins. In its four road games, the total has gone over 48 points three times. The Miners rank 67th in scoring defense per game and just 101st in scoring offense.

Rice has scored at least 28 points in all four of its wins while scoring less than 24 in three of its four losses. Defensively, the Owls rank 122nd in points allowed per contest and have conceded at least 24 points in five of their eight games. They’ve allowed a combined 97 points over the past two games. The total has topped 48 points in all but one of their eight games this season.

The total has gone Over in 17 of UTEP’s last 21 games in November. The Over is also 6-0 in Rice’s last six home games, and 4-0 in its last four November games. The Over has also hit in four of the last five meetings between these two programs. 

UTEP vs Rice betting trend to know

Rice is 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday night games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UTEP vs. Rice.

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