UTSA vs San Diego State Frisco Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Meep Meep in Frisco

Arguably the top matchup between Group of 5 teams this bowl season, the Frisco Bowl features two high-quality teams with a combined record of 22-3.

UTSA looks to continue its magical run in a program-defining stretch under Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners sit at 12-1 as the Conference USA Champions.

San Diego State didn’t skip a beat in Year 2 under Brady Hoke, accumulating an 11-2 record and finishing as the Mountain West runner-up. 

Check out our college football picks and predictions for the Frisco Bowl between the UTSA Roadrunners and the San Diego State Aztecs on Tuesday, December 21.

UTSA vs San Diego State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

UTSA opened as the -2.5 favorite, but the line swung to San Diego State -2.5 following the news that UTSA running back Sincere McCormick has opted out of the contest to focus on the NFL Draft. The total has remained steady at 49.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

UTSA vs San Diego State predictions

• Prediction: UTSA +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 49.5 (-110)
• Best bet: UTSA -2.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UTSA vs San Diego State game info

• Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
• Date: Tuesday, December 21, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

UTSA vs San Diego State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

UTSA: Sincere McCormick RB (Out).
San Diego State: Lucas Johnson QB (Questionable), Tyrell Shavers WR (Questionable), Daniel Bellinger TE (Questionable), Jay Rudolph TE (Questionable), Aaron Greene TE (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for UTSA vs. San Diego State.

UTSA vs San Diego State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Although there has been significant line movement toward San Diego State, we believe that UTSA is still the team to back in this matchup. A line should never move over four points for any running back, even if it’s one as accomplished as McCormick. We believe this has created value on the UTSA side.

The Roadrunners are still the more balanced football team. The offense can beat you both through the air and on the ground, ranking Top 50 in both categories en route to the 27th-ranked overall offense. The defense is susceptible to the pass (104th) and that’s the glaring weakness, but it shouldn’t be an issue against a moribund Aztecs passing attack that averages only 158.2 yards per game through the air.

UTSA has proven that it can win games in more than one way as well. It's won a few critical C-USA shootouts (UAB, Western Kentucky twice) while also relying on the defense when needed, holding five different teams below 20 points. This is a stark contrast to San Diego State, which only plays one style of football: grind the game to a halt while winning the turnover and field possession battles.

Punter Matt Araiza, winner of the 2021 Ray Guy award, is the best player on San Diego State’s roster. He routinely flips the field and forces opposing offenses to go the length of the field, allowing (in tandem with a stout defense) the Aztecs to win close, low-scoring affairs. This tactic may not prove as effective against UTSA, who led the C-USA in net punting while finishing second in the country in turnover margin.

Staying close in turnover margin while not allowing Araiza & Co. to dominate field position is a great strategy for taking down the Aztecs — and the Roadrunners appear well-positioned to do this.

Another factor to watch is UTSA’s athletes out wide. If the Aztecs have a weakness defensively, it’s in the secondary, where they’ve allowed four of the last six quarterbacks they’ve faced to eclipse 300 yards. Receivers Zakhari Franklin (938 yards, 11 TDs) and Joshua Cephus (793 yards, 6 TDs) can create mismatch advantages.

Prediction: UTSA +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

San Diego State and its opponents have combined to score 50 points or more only three times this season. One came against an FCS school when the Aztecs racked up 48 points, an anomalous offense output. Another hit exactly 50 points against an explosive Fresno State passing attack. The third occurred in the Mountain West Championship game when the Aztecs were down 20 players due to COVID protocol. 

Simply put, this Aztecs team is almost always involved in low-scoring affairs, and that’s by design. Both teams rank Top 15 in net punting, so the offenses should be facing long fields. San Diego State wants to run the ball offensively but faces a UTSA defense allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on the season.

Expect San Diego State’s defense to return to form as leaders Patrick McMorris (83 tackles) and Cam Thomas (20 TFL, 10.5 sacks) make a statement. Program legend Sincere McCormick will miss the game for the Roadrunners, only further helping this Under.

Prediction: Under 49.5 (-110)

Best bet

This truly is a great matchup and one of the must-watch bowl games of 2021. 

UTSA appears to have some advantages athletically while being the more well-rounded team. The Roadrunners match up well with San Diego State’s one-dimensional brand of football, so we like them as the short favorite. 

Pick: UTSA +2.5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic