Virginia Tech hopes to avoid falling below .500 on the season when the Hokies take on the Miami Hurricanes on Friday night.
Cam Ward and the Canes are putting up points in record fashion and are heavily favored against a Virginia Tech side hoping to find consistent play from its quarterback.
My early college football picks and Virginia Tech vs. Miami predictions for Friday, September 27 believe Ward & Co. won't show any mercy in this rivalry game.
Virginia Tech vs Miami predictions
Early spread lean
Miami -19.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Cam Ward has been better than Miami Hurricanes fans and coaches could’ve ever hoped for, and he’s got their offense rolling. The Hurricanes lead the nation in EPA/dropback and in pure yards per play. They also rank Top 5 in EPA on early downs, third down success rate, yards per pass, and points per play.
But it’s not just Ward’s arm that has the Canes sitting at 4-0. Miami’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry, eighth-most in the country, and are gaining nearly 200 yards on the ground per game despite ranking 97th in attempts per contest. Four different running backs have 17+ carries, and each have 4.8 or more yards per pop.
The raw numbers and averages have the Virginia Tech Hokies defense ranked in the upper third of college football, but the metrics paint a different picture. The raw data is also skewed by the fact that teams are ramming the ball down their throats so far this season.
The Hokies rank 93rd in EPA/rush, 78th in early down EPA, and 73rd in rushing defense success rate while allowing 4.4 yards per carry. And this is despite Rutgers gaining just 2.9 yards per run last week on 52 carries.
When teams do throw, Virginia Tech is able to utilize their nasty pass rush. The Hokies rank fourth in sack rate, and Antwaun Powell-Ryland has a Top 30 pass rush grade among all defensive linemen. Aeneas Peebles has done even better, ranking 11th when rushing the passer this season.
While it’s yet to play a team with a winning record, Miami’s defense ranks in the Top 10 in EPA/rush, EPA/pass, and third down success. The Hokies will struggle with an offense that ranks in the bottom half of most important metrics, and Kyron Drones is completing less than 60% of his throws with only four touchdowns and three picks.
Drones won’t be able to make enough plays here to cover the spread with a big time throw rate of just 3.03%. Miami will get the lead early, extend it by running the ball, and simply pound Virginia Tech into submission. Leave the points and take the Canes, even at a number that has risen by multiple points since opening.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’m fully leaning Over in this one, and I’m loving that the total has come down to 55.5 after opening a point higher.
Miami’s finding success whether throwing or running, and the metrics we discussed earlier lend themselves to a high-scoring day for the home team. The Canes blitzed USF for 50 points last week, and scored consistently all game with multiple touchdowns in three of four quarters.
Ward has helped the offense score a school-record 209 points in its first four games. Miami has scored 41+ points in all four games so far, and both Power 4 schools the Canes have faced have posted 15+ themselves.
One thing that will help the Over cash is the fact that both defenses are prone to giving up big pass plays. In fact, while the Canes are allowing just a 23% success rate on pass plays, the ones that teams have connected on against them have registered a 1.38 EPA.
USF connected on three pass plays of 25+ yards last week, including a 64-yard chunk play. In fact, Miami has given up 41 plays of 10+ yards in 2024. Meanwhile, the Hokies have allowed 45 such plays, and another 15 of at least 20 yards.
Virginia Tech’s ability to make up some ground late in defeats also helps. The Hokies scored 24 second-half points against Vanderbilt, and 16 points in the fourth quarter last week against Rutgers.
Miami has no problem running up the score, and there is no love lost between these two programs. Virginia Tech will post some garbage time points like it did last week, and that will push the total Over.
Virginia Tech vs Miami live odds
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