Virginia vs Louisville Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Louisville Does the Virginia Double

The Louisville Cardinals aim to continue their surprise run to ACC Title game when they host the Virginia Cavaliers tonight at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.  

The Cardinals have spread their wings in Jeff Brohm’s first year with the team. Louisville enters this conference clash with an 8-1 record and has been particularly dominant at home going 5-0 straight up and against the spread.

So, it should be little surprise the college football odds have the Cards as big favorites against the Cavaliers. But the Hoos have already rocked the ACC boat with a big upset against North Carolina. Can history repeat itself against the Cardinals, or will the home team show why they are 20-point chalk?

I break down this ACC clash and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Louisville on Novemeber 9. 

Virginia vs Louisville best odds

Virginia vs Louisville picks and predictions

Jeff Brohm’s first year in his return to his alma mater could not have gone much better to this point. The Louisville Cardinals enters this week’s matchup with an 8-1 record, and a clear path to the team’s first ACC Championship game is right in front of them.

The Cardinals just can’t afford any slip-ups. 

Luckily, Louisville has the ability to avoid that. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an excellent ground game and their star running back Jawhar Jordan. Individually, Jordan has rushed for 881 yards at a ridiculous clip of 7.1 yards per carry while scoring 11 touchdowns. As a team, Louisville ranks 28th in yards per carry and is totaling more than 190 rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile, quarterback Jack Plummer certainly has some flaws, but you have to respect his arm just enough that you can’t just key on that running game. Overall, Louisville ranks 14th in the country in offensive success rate. Which means they should have success in this matchup against the Virginia Cavaliers. 

The Cavaliers’ brief mid-season revival which included a big upset win over North Carolina, has come and gone. Virginia has lost two in a row and is 2-7 for the season. A big part of the reason for that is that the Cavs are getting killed by opposing rushing attacks. Virginia is surrendering 4.8 yards per carry and ranks 115th in opponent rushing yards per game, and overall, the team ranks 120th in defensive success rate.

The offense isn’t much better. The Hoos rank 103rd in yards per play and 120th in offensive success rate. That’s because they have been hampered by inconsistent quarterback play. From whoever is under center. Anthony Colandrea and Tony Muskett have both seen significant action this season and have combined for just 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

But the biggest difference that will help Louisville avoid the same fate as North Carolina is its defense. This is a really strong unit that has allowed just three points over its last two games. The Cards rank 17th in opponent yards per play and 29th in defensive success rate.

Louisville has also been a dominant home team this season going 5-0 SU/ATS. The Cardinals have done a great job of getting off to solid starts in those, averaging 20 first-half points per game. 

The Cardinals have held 14-3 and 17-0 leads at the half in each of their last two games and the last time they were big home favorites like this was against Boston College on Sept. 23 and they got out to a 28-0 lead. I’m expecting more of the same here and taking Louisville on the first-half spread.

My best bet: Louisville -10.5 first-half spread (-105 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Virginia vs Louisville same-game parlay

Louisville -10.5 1H

Jawhar Jordan 2+ TDs

Virginia team total Under 14.5

50% boost available

+499 +748 at FanDuel

As per usual, our same-game parlay starts off with my best bet which for this ACC matchup is Louisville to cover the 10.5-point first-half spread. And I expect Jawhar Jordan to be a big reason why the Cardinals get off to a good start in this one. As noted, Jordan has 11 rushing touchdowns this season and has snagged one through the air as well. He has scored multiple times in four of his last eight games, so let’s add him to score two or more anytime touchdowns in this juicy matchup against Virginia.

Another reason to like Louisville in this matchup is because of that defense that flies all over the field. They are allowing just 10.1 points per game at home this season and have held opponents to two touchdowns or fewer five times. So, let’s round this SGP out by taking Virginia to stay Under its team total of 14.5. If all of these legs hit we cash a 5/1 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Virginia vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this ACC matchup hit the board with Louisville as a 19.5-point home favorite. That number has quickly moved and the consensus line is Cardinals -20.5 as of Tuesday evening. My breakdown above basically says why I think Louisville will be successful in this game and I would lean towards the home team on the full game spread as well. But if you prefer the full game spread get the Cardinals soon before the line moves to 21.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 51 and has been bet down slightly to 50.5. I’m staying away from the total in this one because the number feels pretty spot on. If this one were to go Over the total I think Louisville would have to do most of the heavy lifting. But I could see them building up a lead in this matchup and then leaning on the ground game even more in the second half to milk that clock quicker. Which would have me leaning slightly to the Under.

Virginia vs Louisville betting trend to know

Louisville is 5-0 ATS at home this season. Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs Louisville.

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