Virginia vs Maryland Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Hemby Runs All Over Virginia Defense

Two border rivals will face off tonight, and we’re here to preview the college football odds as the Virginia Cavaliers travel to College Park to battle the Maryland Terrapins.

The Hoos are coming off a deflating loss to James Madison, a defeat that wasn’t an upset in the eyes of the betting public. Still, they’ll be frustrated at allowing a touchdown with less than a minute remaining as they blew an 11-pt lead in the fourth quarter to remain winless.

For the Terps, they’ve won their first two games but haven’t looked all that convincing. Friday’s game will be a step up in competition and quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa will need to clean up some of his mistakes if they hope to stay unbeaten.

Let’s break down your best betting options in our college football picks for Virginia vs. Maryland below.

Virginia vs Maryland best odds

Virginia vs Maryland picks and predictions

Our best bet for Friday night’s game will follow a troubling trend for the Virginia Cavaliers defense, as we’re backing Maryland Terrapins running back Roman Hemby to have himself a game against the Hoos. 

Through their first two games against Tennessee and James Madison, the Virginia run defense has had more holes than a mesh sack. It goes beyond the raw stats — although those haven’t been pretty to begin with, as they’ve given up 457 rushing yards on 86 carries.

The metrics are what are most damning for Virginia so far. Its opponents have an estimated points per rush of 0.19, one of the highest marks in all of college football. Making matters worse, Virginia’s run defense ranks third worst in FBS in opponent success rate and their 5.3 yards allowed per rush ranks 111th. 

It’s not just their run defense that’s been bad. Only six teams have a lower success rate overall on defense than the Hoos and they rank 110th or worse in EPA per play, total EPA, and sack rate. 

Their poor defense is a big reason why they fell apart in the fourth quarter against James Madison, and why each of its first two opponents have scored 36+ points. It’s also why we expect Hemby to easily top his total of 77.5 rushing yards and surpass 90 on the day.

FanDuel is offering the best alternate rushing odds for Hemby in Week 3 and his 90+ rushing prop is a number I love for a multitude of reasons. Hemby averaged 5.6 yards per carry a season ago and he improved from 3.2 yards per carry against Charlotte last season to 8.1 yards per tote in the rematch last week.

Hemby’s also getting plenty of usage so far this season. Despite only having 12 carries in shortened action against Towson in the season opener, he still managed 4.8 yards per carry. 

He saw 20 carries last week, which could easily be his floor considering Virginia’s first two opponents have each attempted 34 or more carries. Hemby’s sitting at 46% usage on running plays so far in 2023, which is skewed to the low end because the backups got more carries in their easy Week 1 victory.

James Madison averaged just shy of five yards per carry a week ago, and at that rate, it’ll take Hemby about 18 carries to reach his alternate number. That is quite doable against a defensive front that is allowing 3.8 line yards per rush and 1.4 second-level yards per carry. 

With a stuff rate of just 10%, Virginia’s going to have a long day against the Maryland offense. Given Tagovailoa’s threat and their poor pass defense, it’s unlikely the Hoos will be afforded the luxury of trying to stack the box as Hemby runs it down their throats and puts some money in our pockets. 

My best bet: Roman Hemby to rush for 90+ yards (+140 at FanDuel)

Virginia vs Maryland same-game parlay

Roman Hemby to rush for 90+ yards (+140)

Roman Hemby to score 2+ touchdowns (+290)

+499 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay sees us heading over to FanDuel, where we’re going to combine two prop bets for Hemby in a SGP that will pay out at nearly +500.

Virginia has allowed a staggering seven rushing touchdowns through their first two games, with three different players scoring multiple times. Hemby has found the endzone in each of his first two games, including a 15-yard score against Charlotte. 

Hemby had three multi-score games a season ago, including the only two games in which he had more than 17 carries. 

Six of the seven touchdown runs Virginia has allowed this season have been from inside the 5-yard line, as they’re getting pushed around even when they know the run is coming. I’ll back him at this price to find paydirt twice and provide us with a solid payday. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Virginia vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

Bettors jumped all over the spread when it opened on Sunday. Virginia opened getting as many as 20 points, with the spread quickly getting bet down to +13.5 in some places. It’s now settled at +14.5 on average, although FanDuel was offering +15.5 on Wednesday night. 

The total of 48.5 was also bet down quickly by the public. As high as 52.5 at DraftKings upon release, it’s been steadily bet down throughout the week. This is partly due to trends — Maryland’s team total has gone Under in six straight, while Virginia’s team total has gone Under in five of their last six — as well as the fact that Tagovailoa has struggled a bit with taking care of the ball this season.

In terms of the spread, I would try to get Maryland +14 but would avoid the hook. It was offered briefly at that number on Monday, and if it drops down again I’d grab it — but it’s not a strong enough lean that I’d pay to buy the half-point.

That said, Virginia has been too inconsistent on both sides of the ball to make me think they can slow Maryland down enough to keep this one closer than two scores.

As for the total, I’m personally staying away. While I think Maryland will do their part, I think the number has gotten too low to really get a good read either way. I’d instead consider taking Virginia to go Under its team total once again, which currently sits at 16.5 points. 

Virginia’s passing game is better than their rushing attack, but Maryland’s ranked 16th in EPA per pass play and 28th in success rate. The only offensive touchdown the Terps have allowed so far this season came with 90 seconds remaining last week.  

Virginia vs Maryland betting trend to know

The Virginia team total has gone Under in five of its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs Maryland.

Virginia vs Maryland game info

Virginia vs Maryland latest injuries

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