Virginia vs Tennessee Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Cavs Get Trounced by Vols

Last year felt like a coronation of sorts for the Tennessee Volunteers. After a dominating season that saw Tennessee beat rival Alabama and finish things with an exclamation point Orange Bowl win over Clemson, it certainly felt like the Vols were back. You could argue that Tennessee would have been disappointed to miss the College Football Playoff, but you can only harp on an 11-2 season so much.

The Virginia Cavaliers saw a drastically different end to their season, playing just 10 regular season games and finishing the campaign 3-7.

What’s the best bet for this opener? 

Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Virginia on Wednesday, September 2nd.

Virginia vs Tennessee best odds

Virginia vs Tennessee picks and predictions

I’m pretty concerned about Virginia coming into this season after a tumultuous 2022. 

Head coach Tony Elliot publicly berated his assistant coaches. The offense was sometimes downright horrific, and the Cavaliers lost three straight games. Now, Virginia enters this season forced to rebuild the entirety of its offense with FCS QB Tony Muskett transferring in to take over where the prolific Brennan Armstrong left off. It also has to replace several talented defensive starters. I’m not sure Virginia has the horses or the continuity to stay anywhere close. I’m grabbing Tennessee as my best bet. 

I’m pretty down on Virginia even compared to the already bleak market. It lost its best defensive players in CBs Anthony Johnson and Fentrell Cypress II. Conversely, questions abound with a spotty offensive line and an unproven QB. Before you even get to the offense, though, you have to be concerned about the defense. It will go against what was one of the most prolific offenses in football last year. Virginia’s defense wasn’t exactly great a season ago. You could consider it the strength of the team overall, however, that comes with a caveat. The Cavs were just about average in points allowed, but their passing defense left more to be desired, finishing similarly but struggling against marquee opponents. Now its less-experienced group will get this test. 

That test faces Tennessee QB Joe Milton, who got his feet wet last season and looks poised to take over where Hendon Hooker left off. The hype is real with Milton, and there’s reason for it. The Michigan transfer looked spectacular in the Orange Bowl, where he got the start and threw for 251 yards, along with three touchdowns against a Clemson defense that’s not precisely chopped liver. He’ll have some excellent weapons at his disposal, too. Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt are names you know, and they’ll need to be replaced after jumping to the NFL. However, there’s little reason to suggest Bru McCoy and Squirrel White aren’t set to feel this void.

The view of this game is a simple one for me. 

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is established. He has a big-play offense that destroys teams and makes you adjust. It’s why his squad led college football a season ago with a whopping 525.5 yards per game. There are some questions on the offensive line, but they likely aren’t ones Virginia can exploit and are masked by a high tempo. Conversely, I’m still unsure what Elliott wants his program to be at Virginia. Inconsistencies marked last season, and now they run into a team tailor-made to directly exploit where they have the most question marks.

I expect Milton to target Virginia’s inexperienced secondary all day on Saturday and do mostly whatever it wants. My projection on the spread for this one was -31.5, so I’ll lay the points here with my best bet.

My best bet: Tennessee -27.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Virginia vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Tennessee -27.5

Tennessee -14.5 in first half

+133 at FanDuel

With little being made available to bettors, we choose the most straightforward same-game parlay option. 

I expect total dominance from start to finish from Tennessee here. Its offense will be primed to start the season, and it has notable mismatches that it can exploit. Not only did Tennessee lead the country in total offense last season, but it also led it in first-quarter points. With Milton ready to assert his stronghold on the starting quarterback job, he will come out sharp and firing from the first snap. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Virginia vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

With some new faces in the fold, there might be a few series before Tennessee's offense gets rolling, and with that in mind, you may have a better live betting opportunity. No matter the game flow, though, the Vols will cover. Milton’s showing in the Orange Bowl against a Top-10 defense gave me confidence in him this season. Sure, that Clemson team had some defensive absences, but it was still quite good and better than this Virginia team by any objective metric.

Heupel’s offense focuses on the aerial attack. It is uniquely built to attack the boundary where Virginia is the least experienced. 

If I’m playing Tennessee to cover, there’s a natural relation to playing the Over. With that said, my projection was nearly dead on for the total listed by bookmakers, and I'm staying away. There are too many unknowns for me to trust Virginia to do its part. It doesn’t hurt that Tennessee’s defense improved last season, but its inefficiencies are likely why it missed out on the college football playoff. You can bet that it would have been the primary focus all offseason. 

Surprisingly, Tennessee was just 5-5 to the Over a season ago. Its noticeable defensive trends to end the year resulted in two straight Unders. Virginia was a strong Under team, with its games going Under at a 7-2 clip. 

Virginia vs Tennessee betting trend to know

Tennessee covered three of its last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs Tennessee.

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