Washington State vs Oregon Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Efficiency, Explosiveness Clash in Eugene

Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks look for revenge against the state of Washington after dropping their first game of the season in heartbreaking fashion to the Huskies a week ago. This is still a squad that has hopes of competing at the highest level of the sport, so a bounceback is imperative for Lanning & Co.

This time it’ll be a home game against Jake Dickert’s Washington State Cougars, who are also looking to pick themselves up off the mat after suffering two straight losses in conference play. 

Looking at college football odds, the Ducks are favored by just under three touchdowns while the total is set in the low 60s. I have my eyes set on the total for this contest with one of the nation’s most efficient offenses pairing off with one of the most explosive ones. 

Read on for my best bet and free college football picks for Washington State vs. Oregon on Saturday, October 21. 

Washington State vs Oregon best odds

Washington State vs Oregon picks and predictions

While this is a sandwich spot for the Oregon Ducks (at Washington last week, at Utah next week), I expect them to play a very strong game offensively at home in Week 8. The 36-33 last-minute loss to the Huskies was deflating, but I expect them to pick themselves off the mat and get back into the fight considering there's still plenty to play for as a one-loss team that's looked very strong this season. 

The offense in particular has been elite, ranking third in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Bo Nix and this offense should score early and often against a Washington State Cougars defense that should be the worst unit on the field on Saturday.

The Cougars have allowed at least 6.0 yards per play in three of their last four games, just surrendered 44 points to an Arizona team playing with a backup quarterback and running back, and allowed a struggling UCLA offense to rack up 471 total yards while running a whopping 97 plays. 

Oregon has a very strong rushing attack led by Bucky Irving, ranking first in EPA per rush, third in rushing success rate, and second in rushing explosiveness. Irving is a shifty, nuanced, rushing virtuoso who operates behind a wall of an offensive line that leads the nation in line yards.

They should find repeated success against the Cougars and move the ball almost at will. Wazzu has a very green interior defensive line that will be outmatched, and the linebacking corps is new this year as well and has not proven it can play at this high of a level. The metrics back this up as the Cougars check in at just 113th in PFF’s rush defense grade.

The big news this year for Washington State is a revamped offensive attack under new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. The precocious 28-year-old was on Western Kentucky's offensive staff during Bailey Zappe’s record-breaking 2021 season in which he threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns and was co-OC last year when the Tops averaged 497.3 total yards per game and 36.4 PPG. 

Through four games it had appeared as though he had led an offensive renaissance on the Palouse — the Cougars were 4-0 with wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State while averaging 45.8 PPG and 533.8 total yards per game. Quarterback Cameron Ward was in the thick of the Heisman Trophy odds conversation just a year removed from being one of the most mistake-prone and inconsistent signal callers on the West Coast. 

The wheels have since fallen off. The Cougars mustered just 216 total yards on 3.7 yards per play with four turnovers against UCLA in Week 6 and managed 234 total yards on 4.3 yards per play while turning it over three times against Arizona last week.

There are a lot of explanations for this offensive fall-off, including an inept rushing attack (111th in EPA per rush) that allows defenses to ignore the ground game and focus defenders solely on the pass, a mistake-prone Ward, injuries in the wide receiving room, and an offensive line that simply refuses to block anyone (130th in line yards, 129th in stuff rate, 101st in PFF’s pass blocking grade, fourth-worst in run blocking). 

Where does that leave us heading into the back half of the schedule? The Cougars still have a bright offensive coordinator, an inconsistent but very talented quarterback, and a good receiving room. There will continue to be wild swings from week to week, but this team has shown the nation what it’s capable of after dropping 528 total yards on 8.1 yards per play against Oregon State.

Oregon’s defense has some pretty statistics (20th in EPA per play overall, 17th in standard downs EPA per play) but has benefitted from a soft schedule. It’s given up plenty in its two most difficult games, allowing 30 points on 456 yards and 6.5 yards per play to Texas Tech and 36 points on 415 yards and 6.8 yards per play to Washington. 

Considering the Ducks should score at least 40 points more often than not in this matchup, we’d only need a moderate contribution from the Cougars offensively for this game to go Over the total. The Cougars rank 10th in pass rate and 27th in passing explosiveness, so even a few lapses from the Ducks could be enough for Wazzu to contribute its share of points.

This is a sandwich spot for Oregon so its defense may not be quite as lights out as it was against softer opponents, and Arbuckle is too bright of an offensive mind for the Cougars offense to stay in the gutter for too long. 

My best bet: Over 62 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Washington State vs Oregon same-game parlay

Over 62.5 (-105)

Jordan James anytime TD (-140)

Oregon 1Q -4.5 (-132)

50% boost available

+431 +646 at FanDuel

I'm starting by adding Oregon running back Jordan James to score at touchdown. The sophomore has a nose for the end zone, finding paydirt eight times already this season despite splitting time with two other running backs.

Complementary back Noah Whittington is out for the year, meaning James has locked down the No. 2 spot on the depth chart and should remain a big part of this offense going forward. Considering the Cougars have already allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season — including nine combined to Arizona and Oregon State — James is likely to find himself celebrating again on Saturday. 

The last leg will be Oregon -4.5 on the first-quarter spread. The Ducks are the vastly superior team on paper and should be fired up to get back on track here at home against a reeling WSU team, so I expect a fast start from Dan Lanning’s squad before they perhaps cool the jets a bit in the second half with a physical Utah team on deck next week.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Washington State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened as low as Oregon -14 last week and -16.5 on Sunday. It’s since seen a fair amount of movement with the Ducks up to -19.5 and even -20 at some books at the time of writing. The total has also seen a bit of movement, jumping from 60.5 at open to 62 at current. 

I feel fairly confident Oregon will find its points in this matchup. The Ducks are elite offensively and have a high floor thanks to the potent rushing attack and strong offensive line, and I think there’s a high ceiling as well against an underwhelming defense. The main focus of this handicap, for both the side and the total, is when Washington State has the ball. 

We saw Oregon completely shut down a similarly-assembled Colorado offense earlier this year when the Ducks defensive line dismantled anything Coach Prime’s team tried to do offensively. The Buffs mustered just six points (all in garbage time) on a measly 199 total yards and 3.4 yards per play. 

While that could certainly happen again here, I’m not expecting a repeat result. For one, the Cougars can hardly play worse offensively than they have the last two weeks and will look to avoid turning the ball over as they’ve done so seven times in those two games. 

Secondly, this is a very tricky scheduling spot for Oregon as a sandwich spot between two games that could make or break their season, so an intense, focused effort shouldn’t necessarily be the expectation for a full four quarters if the Ducks do jump out to an early lead. 

Thirdly, the Cougars fell apart offensively against two very disruptive fronts and while Oregon creates a bit of pressure (58th in front seven havoc), it’s still a step back statistically from what Wazzu has seen the last two weeks as both UCLA (eighth in front seven havoc) and Arizona (14th) rate as Top 15 in that metric.

I’m not convinced that Arizona is actually more disruptive up front than Oregon considering how the Ducks handled Colorado’s offensive line, but that’s what the metrics say nonetheless. 

Washington State vs Oregon betting trend to know

The last four meetings between these teams have all gone Over the total. Find more college football betting trends for Washington State vs Oregon.

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