Washington State vs Washington Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Cougars Can't Be Counted Out

The Apple Cup returns for the 115th time, and this iteration will be the last in which both participants are a member of the Pac-12 Conference. 

There’s plenty of intrigue for this rivalry as the No. 4 Washington Huskies likely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’re heavily favored to do just that against the Washington State Cougars, who need one last win to reach bowl eligibility. 

Taking a look at the college football odds, the Huskies are 16.5-point home favorites while the total resides at 68.5. Read on for my free college football picks for Washington State vs. Washington on Saturday, November 25. 

Washington State vs Washington best odds

Washington State vs Washington picks and predictions

If the season ended today, the Washington Huskies would be among the four entrants in the College Football Playoff after moving ahead of fellow unbeaten Florida State for the No. 4 spot in the latest rankings. 

Things haven’t exactly been smooth sailing lately, however, as Kalen DeBoer’s squad squeaked by lowly conference cellar-dwellers Arizona State and Stanford, was outgained on a per-play basis by both USC and Utah, and was shut out in the second half last week against Oregon State in a 2-point win. 

Perhaps it’s finding something to nitpick with a team that has played at a very high level this season and has handled every test thrown its way this far. That being said, the Huskies are massive 16.5-point favorites in a rivalry game and therefore recent performance is very important.

For one reason or another, this offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, and the defense hasn’t exactly been a tremendous stop unit (104th in success rate) all year. 

To add injury to my insult, lead back Dillon Johnson’s status is uncertain for the Apple Cup. He's carried the load at running back, accounting for 1,014 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns while no other back on the roster has carried the ball more than 35 times or gained 200 yards rushing. He was in a walking boot this week after getting shaken up last week.

They face a Washington State Cougars team that has had a roller coaster of a season, winning its first four games of the season, losing six straight, and then getting back on track with a 56-14 shellacking of Colorado last week. 

Despite all of that variance, the Cougars have been decent on both sides of the ball. They rank 30th in success rate on offense while scoring 32.6 points per game and 50th in success rate on defense while surrendering 28.6 ppg.

Their biggest weakness has been a bad offensive line — the offense can tend to crumble if Ward is consistently under duress. That doesn’t seem to be a huge concern against a Washington defense that has just 14 sacks all year. 

This line seems a tad disrespectful to Jake Dickert’s team. They’ve lost by more than two touchdowns just once this season, beat Oregon State, and played Oregon close on the road — for two and a half quarters, at least. 

This team has plenty left to play for — this is a rivalry game, they need one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and Huskies players like Bralen Trice are giving out quotes that can only add fuel to the fire. “Oregon’s our rival, but Wazzu’s our little brother. It’s that little brother that’s always just talking, making noise, you just want to smack ‘em — so that’s what we’re going to do.”

This Washington team is very fun and very exciting, but it’s not one that I trust to cover such a large spread. In fact, the Huskies have beaten just one conference opponent by more than 10 points — and that was against Cal way back in Week 4. Their average margin of victory has been just 6.6 points in their other seven conference wins. 

I’ll back the underdog here that has a marquee win on its resume and is receiving an inflated spread that isn’t supported by either the metrics or recent performance. 

My best bet: Washington State +16.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Washington State vs Washington same-game parlay

Washington State +16.5

Lincoln Victor Over 66.5 receiving yards

Cameron Ward Over 1.5 passing TDs

Nakia Watson Over 24.5 rushing yards

30% boost available

+528 +686 at FanDuel

Here’s a four-leg SGP featuring my best bet on Wazzu against the spread matched with three Cougars player props. 

The first will be go-to receiver Lincoln Victor to go Over his receiving yardage prop of 65.5. The slot receiver eats targets for breakfast, lunch, and dinner as a high-volume hog who has amassed 102 targets across 10 games this season.

For the folks counting at home, that’s more than 10 targets per contest. The Huskies are surrendering 260.5 passing yards per game so Victor should have every opportunity to go Over this number. 

The second prop will be quarterback Cameron Ward to throw at least two touchdowns. He’s about as inconsistent of a quarterback as you’ll find around the country but has been in fine form lately, amassing 642 passing yards and five touchdowns (with three more rushing) across his last two games alone.

He typically underperforms when his porous offensive line doesn’t allow him time in the pocket, but that’s not a big concern against a Washington team that doesn’t create much chaos with the big uglies, ranking 130th in front seven havoc. 

The last prop will be Cougars running back Nakia Watson to go Over his rushing yardage prop of 24.5. He had a breakout season in 2022, rushing for 769 yards and nine touchdowns.

This year has been a massive disappointment (257 rushing yards, four touchdowns) but it’s worth pointing out that he’s been injured for much of the year and finally looked healthy last week when he had 47 yards rushing on just eight attempts and also caught a pass for a 23-yard touchdown.

This is a great matchup as Washington is very soft up front, ranking 132nd in line yards, 126th in stuff rate, 130th in EPA per rush, and 128th in rushing success rate. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Washington State vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis

Washington opened at -13 early last week but this line has since moved to -16.5. The total currently resides between 67.5 and 68.5, depending where you look. 

The Huskies have dominated the Apple Cup lately, winning eight of the last 10 meetings. Recent history is not on the Cougars’ side, but the rest of the handicap is, in my opinion. 

As for the total, I believe both teams should find offensive success and therefore lean toward the Over, although it’s such a high number that I’m personally not making a play. Ward usually has this offense humming when he’s not under constant pressure, so that should be the case here.

Michael Penix Jr. is a Heisman contender for a reason and has one of the best wide receivers in the nation in Rome Odunze to throw the ball to, and Wazzu’s defense isn’t scary enough to expect a standstill. 

A more pessimistic view would point out that Washington’s passing offense thrives off creating successful plays (fifth in passing success rate) but isn’t very explosive (87th in passing explosiveness).

This Wazzu secondary headed by corner Chau Smith-Wade is pretty good on a per-play basis (26th in passing success rate) but allows too many big plays (90th in passing explosiveness). They could cancel each other out a bit here. 

When Wazzu has the ball, it almost always throws the ball, ranking third in pass rate. That plays right into the strength of this Washington defense as its secondary has been sublime (ninth in EPA per pass, first in passing success rate) but its rush defense has been suspect. 

This isn’t a perfect matchup for either side, but both offenses are good enough to keep the chains moving.

Washington State vs Washington betting trend to know

Washington State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine November games. Find more college football betting trends for Washington State vs Washington.

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