Washington vs Michigan Prediction: CFP National Championship Game Odds and Picks

We are approaching the final chapter of another storybook season in college football and like in any classic tale, the climax features a battle. However, this time instead of good vs. evil, we get offense vs. defense, and the matchup couldn’t be better.

The No. 1-ranked Michigan Wolverines (14-0) will face the No. 2-ranked Washington Huskies (14-0) in the College Football Playoff National Championship game tonight at Houston's NRG Stadium.

This is the first time in the CFP era that two undefeated teams have faced off in the title game and both carry intriguing narratives.

Michigan had to deal not only with the fallout of the sign-stealing scandal but the weight of the fact that its two previous trips to the College Football Playoff ended in utter disappointment. But behind star RB Blake Corum, QB JJ McCarthy, and arguably its deepest roster in years, the Wolverines finally got to the championship game.

Meanwhile, Washington, which now owns college football’s longest winning streak, was doubted every step along the way. But behind the arm of Michael Penix Jr., the Huskies have passed every test. Yet the biggest test lies ahead in the form of the Michigan defense, which is arguably the best in the country. And sportsbooks are giving that defense the edge, with the Wolverines currently listed as favorites. 

Can the Huskies overcome the college football odds one more time? Or will the Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines fulfill their destiny? I break down the bowl game odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff National Championship between Washington vs. Michigan on Monday, January 8.

Want more great CFP Championship bets? Be sure to check out my spotlight on Michael Penix Jr. odds as well!

Washington vs Michigan best odds

Washington vs Michigan picks and predictions

Despite another undefeated season and earning the College Football Playoff committee’s No. 1 seed, many doubted Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines. Whether it was the cheating allegations, the idea that they hadn’t beaten anyone that good this season, or their past CFP disappointments, not many outside of Ann Arbor truly bought into this team’s success.

But after wins in Happy Valley, in The Game, and defeating Alabama 27-20 in overtime as 2-point favorites in the Rose Bowl, no one is thinking that anymore. This Wolverines team might be the most complete in the country from top to bottom and very much deserves to be here. 

Michigan ranks ninth in offensive success rate and 44th in yards per play and it all starts with running back Blake Corum. The senior rushed for 1,028 yards and 24 touchdowns this season and you saw how important he was to the Wolverines in their Rose Bowl win over the Crimson Tide, adding another 83 yards, including a 17-yard game-winning touchdown run.

That said, the Wolverines are at their best when quarterback J.J. McCarthy is effective. McCarthy started the season strong before tailing off down the stretch. But the Wolverines don’t win that game against Bama without him making some key plays with both his arm and his legs down the stretch.

But it was the Michigan defense that got most of the headlines in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines rank ninth in defensive success rate and fourth in opponent yards per play, and their front seven was a force against Alabama, sacking quarterback Jalen Milroe six times and coming up with the game-clinching stop on fourth down on a Milroe keeper inside the five-yard line.

On the other side, we have the Washington Huskies. What a job Kalen DeBoer has done in his second season in Seattle. They also marched through their schedule undefeated and now own the longest winning streak in the FBS at 21. 

Even though the Huskies were winning games, including a key mid-season one over a very good Oregon Ducks team, they were not seen at the level as some of the other top teams. In the end, it took an undefeated season that included a second win over Oregon in the Pac-12 title game to earn their spot. And they made the most of it, taking out Texas 37-31 as 3.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl.

Being overlooked hasn’t bothered the Huskies, whose high-octane offense is powered by the arm of Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. 

The senior signal-caller put up some gaudy numbers this season, throwing for 4,218 yards with 33 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. He has a dynamic duo at wide receiver to throw to in Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.

Overall, the Huskies rank fifth in offensive success rate and yards per play, and lead the country in passing offense.

Washington's defense was supposed to be its Achilles' heel, but it always stepped up when needed most. The unit is led by defensive end Bralen Trice, who has a bright future on Sundays. And while some of the numbers are bad, it ranked 25th in opponent yards per attempt and 29th in opponent QB rating.

Shutting Corum down will be important for sure, but Texas and Oregon (twice) both put up solid rushing numbers and the Huskies won all three of those games. 

On top of that, those games plus a matchup with Utah means Washington played four contests this season against teams in the Top 26 in defensive success rate. Penix threw for 1,383 yards with nine touchdowns and just two picks in those games. We know he can be successful against good defensive teams.

Now, Michigan’s defense looked great against Alabama. It pressured Milroe relentlessly and the Crimson Tide offensive line looked overwhelmed. While that unit had played better of late, giving up sacks was a problem all season. It might be a little harder for the Wolverines to generate that same type of pressure against this Huskies O-line, which is arguably the best in the county. Heck, it won the Joe Moore Award for the best unit and gave up only 11 sacks all season. That includes not allowing a single sack against a Texas defensive line that has multiple NFLers on it.

If Washington can keep Penix clean, and if they can force McCarthy and the Michigan special teams into a mistake or two, the Huskies will have an excellent chance to win this football game and their first national title since 1991. With that being the case, I’m taking the points with Penix and the Pups, who have proven time and again that they perform their best as underdogs. And if they do pull off the win, what a swan song it will be for the Pac-12.

My best bet: Washington +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel) 30% boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Washington +4.5

Michael Penix 2+ TD passes

Blake Corum 2+ TD

+475  +600 at bet365

We are taking our College Football Playoff National Championship SGP to the next level as this SGP, normally priced at +475, is getting boosted to +600 at bet365. As always, we kick our SGP off with my best bet, which for the CFP title game is Washington +4.5. And if Washington can keep this game close, it means Michael Penix Jr. had some success throwing the football.

Penix had an epic year throwing the football, and the Heisman runner-up has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 11 of his 14 games this season. While Michigan’s pass defense is good, you can make the case they haven’t seen anything like this Washington passing attack.

While Penix is the engine that runs the Washington offense, the same can be said for Blake Corum and Michigan. The Wolverines’ running back is a load to bring down and was a touchdown-scoring machine this season. Corum has found the end zone a ridiculous 25 times in 14 games this season and has scored multiple touchdowns nine times.

The Huskies' defense has struggled against the run, ranking 125th in defensive success rate vs the rush. I think this is a close game, but Corum should get his either way. Close this SGP out with the Wolverines RB to score 2+ TDs.

Washington vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

Michigan opened as a 4-point favorite over Washington. The Wolverines have seen the early action with the line quickly moving to 4.5 and that’s where it sits as of Tuesday morning.

The matchup between the Washington offensive line and the Michigan defensive front is the key one to watch, and if this Huskies O-line can give Penix time to operate, he should have success. 

That said, Michigan is a strong team from top to bottom and is favored accordingly. While McCarthy can make some iffy decisions, he looks healthy and can make throws when called upon. The Wolverines also covered the spread in all of their important games this season (Penn State, Ohio State, the Big Ten Championship Game, and the Rose Bowl).

But I’m sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Huskies, who have covered the spread all five times they have been underdogs in the DeBoer era.

The total opened at 55.5 and that’s where it remains. I’m staying away, though, because I believe there is a high variance here.

I like Washington, so I’d have a slight lean to the Over, which cashed and would have easily cleared this number in the Huskies' four biggest games of the year. Michigan, which went 8-5-1 to the Over this season, has a capable offense going against a scrappy but flawed Huskies defense.

However, Michigan could also try its best to play keep away by milking the clock with the run game and keeping the ball out of Penix’s hands as much as possible. That is why I said, no official play for me here, but maybe a slight lean to the Over.

Washington vs Michigan betting trend to know

Washington is 5-0 straight up as an underdog in the last two seasons with Kalen DeBoer. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs Michigan.

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