Washington vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: High-Flying Huskies Invade East Lansing

With Mel Tucker suspended, Michigan State defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett is in the interim role and has the tough task of slowing down the Huskies potent passing attack led by Heisman odds hopeful Michael Penix Jr. and his trio of future NFL pass catchers. College football odds are all over the place in a subpar week, but this is one of the few interesting games to watch.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Washington vs. Michigan State on Saturday, September 16.

Washington vs Michigan State best odds

Washington vs Michigan State picks and predictions

When Michael Penix Jr. arrived in Seattle alongside head coach Kalen DeBoer, there was little belief the duo could quickly rebuild a Washington Huskies program that had fallen on hard times.

Yet in their first year there, the pair, who had been together at Indiana in 2019, managed to go 11-2 with Penix Jr. finishing second in the country in passing yards with 4,641.

The former Hoosiers star finished eighth in Heisman voting last year while leading an offense that finished first in EPA per play and second in EPA per pass.

With star receivers like Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk, Penix Jr. put up jaw-dropping numbers and he’s doing it again in 2023, which is why it’s hard not to love the Over on his 347.5 passing yards line.

In 15 games with UDub, Penix Jr. has gone over that number seven times, including last year against Michigan State when he threw for 397 yards and four scores.

Through two games this season, he’s topped 400 yards in both and leads an offense that’s third in EPA per play and ninth in EPA per pass.

A Spartans defense that’s full of new starters and coming off a season in which it finished 119th on defense in EPA per pass, is not going to be the team that slows down the Dawgs explosive passing attack.

A ball-winning X-receiver with sub-4.45 speed, Odunze is a big play waiting to happen and has over 1,300 yards since Penix Jr. came to town. The Robin to his Batman, McMillan is one of the best slot receivers in the 2024 NFL Draft class with his route running nuance and suddenness; he’s over 1,200 yards with Penix Jr. running the show. Plus they have Polk as a field stretcher.

With talent like that at receiver, it’s no wonder why DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb would rather throw the ball every play than run it.

Last season Penix Jr. finished fourth in the country in pass attempts (554) and this season he’s already thrown it 78 times in two blowout wins while the leading rusher for the Huskies, Will Nixon, has just 12 carries in two games.

While Michigan State is 2-0, they’ve only played an FCS program in Richmond and a Central Michigan team with no real passing attack; the Chippewas are 118th in EPA per pass on offense.

This Washington attack is like nothing they’ve seen yet and all signs point to another week of the Huskies point guard slinging the rock all over the yard.

My best bet: Michael Penix Jr. Over 347.5 passing yards (-115 at bet365)

Washington vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Michael Penix Jr. Over 347.5 passing yards

Rome Odunze Over 91.5 receiving yards

Washington Over 36.5 points

+300 at bet365

When Penix Jr. is shredding a defense, it usually means nobody can cover Odunze, who is on pace to be a top-50 pick this April.

In 14 games with Penix Jr., Odunze has topped 100 yards eight times and has only finished with less than six receptions four times. And, with his 15.5 yards per reception average since Penix Jr. took the helm at quarterback, he’ll clear 91.5 receiving yards by just catching six passes.

Since last season, Odunze has averaged a shade under 99 yards per game, and when those two are cooking it means points.

Last season they averaged 39.7 per game, seventh best in all of college football, and they’re averaging 49.5 through two games so far this season. 

Against a Spartans team last year that was then ranked No. 11 in the country, Washington hung 39 points on them. They’ve only scored less than 37 points four times in DeBoer’s 15-game tenure.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Washington vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

While the Huskies have been a dominant offensive force through two games this season, they’re 1-1 against the spread.

After easily covering as -14 to -14.5-point favorites against Boise State in Week 1, Washington didn’t cover the -34-point spread against Tulsa in Week 2. 

Despite not covering last week, they opened between -14.5 and -17-point road favorites at most books against Michigan State, which is no surprise given the Tucker news breaking ahead of time.

The Spartans had gone 2-0 against the spread this season after beating Central Michigan 31-7 as -14-point favorites and then smushing the Spiders 45-14 as -28.5-point favorites.

The game total for this one opened at 58 and has dipped down to between 55.5 and 56. Knowing the Huskies are in a great position to cover their share of the scoring, the Spartans, who are 25th in EPA per pass on offense, could take advantage of an average Washington defense.

UDub is 54th in EPA per play on defense this season and gave up 25.8 points per game last season, which was 58th in the country.

It’s also of note that Michigan State has hit the game total Over in five of their last seven games at home.

Washington vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Washington has only hit the Team Total Under in three of their last nine games (-3.75 Units / -37% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs Michigan State.

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