The calendar has turned to November, and we’ve reached the point in the college football season where we know exactly where most schools fit into the FBS hierarchy.
From National Championship contenders to bowl participants and down through the also-rans, teams have played enough games for us to evaluate them fairly and accurately. That makes it easier to target games where the lines or totals aren’t quite where they should be.
This week, I’ve selected two Over/Under bets and two underdogs who I think will cover based on what they’ve done so far this season.
Keep reading to learn why I’ve selected these bets in my best college football parlay picks for Week 10.
Week 10 college football parlay picks
- Tulane vs Tulsa Under 57.5 (-106) + Ohio State vs Northwestern Under 55.5 (-110) = +271
- Baylor +3.5 (-110) + Miami +7.5 (-110) = +264
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Tulane vs Tulsa Under 57.5 (-106) + Ohio State vs Northwestern Under 55.5 (-110) = +271 (at FanDuel)
Tulane vs. Tulsa Under 57.5 (-106)
The No. 19 Tulane Green Wave have slid under the radar a bit, but at 7-1, they have established themselves as one of the best Group of Five teams in the country this year. While they’ve played a couple of shootouts, The Green Wave have mostly relied on their defense to carry the load this season. Tulane is giving up just 17.4 points per game this season, and opposing teams are averaging only 313.6 yards of offense against the Green Wave.
A solid Tulsa Golden Hurricane offense may have challenged Tulane, but quarterback Davis Brin has been slowed by injury and hurt his non-throwing shoulder yet again last week. Tulsa’s defense doesn’t rate with Tulane’s, but the Golden Hurricane have shown an ability to keep games within reason. They allowed just 35 points to Mississippi earlier this year, and teams have struggled to throw the ball against Tulsa, averaging just 182.9 yards per game through the air.
Tulane should win this game easily but will do so with a tremendous defensive effort that allows few points to the Golden Hurricane. The Green Wave have played to the Under in nine of their last 13 games, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday.
Ohio State vs Northwestern Under 55.5 (-110)
There’s little doubt about the outcome on Saturday, when the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes visit the 1-7 Northwestern Wildcats. The Buckeyes are far better on offense, defense, and special teams, and the only question is how badly Ohio State will beat Northwestern.
The Wildcats will have an especially difficult time trying to score in this matchup. Ohio State is giving up just 16.9 points per game on the year, and Northwestern isn’t the team that will change that. The Wildcats are 120th in the country in scoring offense (17.9 points per game) and 93rd in total offense (362.6 yards per game).
Northwestern isn’t good on defense either, but Penn State only scored 17 points against them earlier this year, and no team has put up more than 42 points on the Wildcats this season. That’s not exactly something to brag about, but it shows they can put up resistance, even against strong competition.
Yes, the Buckeyes also boast one of the nation’s top-scoring attacks, putting up 48.9 points per game. But at home, Northwestern should at least be able to keep them around that total, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they held Ohio State to a touchdown or two below that number.
On the other hand, the Wildcats won’t be contributing much to the scoring here. Even with the number dropping, I’m still taking the Under.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Baylor +3.5 (-110) + Miami +7.5 (-110) = +264 (at DraftKings)
Baylor +3.5 (-110)
The Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners have posted identical 5-3 records this season and are mired in the middle of the Big 12 standings. However, both teams have played better as of late, winning their last two games.
Oklahoma’s recent wins have come against Kansas and Iowa State. While this has helped ensure the Sooners will easily reach bowl eligibility and aren’t nearly as bad as they looked earlier in the year, they haven’t shown they can hang with tough opponents, let alone beat them. TCU beat Oklahoma by 31, and Texas embarrassed the Sooners 49-0 on their home turf less than a month ago.
Baylor has played teams tighter, even in losing efforts. The Bears lost to BYU in overtime earlier this season, while West Virginia beat them by three last month. Baylor is coming off a blowout win on the road against Texas Tech in a game that was nearly a tossup at sportsbooks.
Baylor’s offense has been dominant on the ground, averaging over 200 yards rushing per game. The Bears put up 38.4 points per game and should have success against an Oklahoma defense that ranks 114th in total yardage and 113th in rushing defense.
This game has all the makings of an upset win for Baylor, but Oklahoma is playing better and could feed off of its home crowd. With that in mind, I’m taking the Bears and the points, as +3.5 gives us a key number in the case of a field goal loss.
Miami +7.5 (-110)
The Florida State Seminoles (5-3) have been one of the more perplexing teams in college football this year. They beat LSU in an early season thriller and hung close with Clemson just a few weeks ago. Yet, they’ve also dropped games to Wake Forest and North Carolina State, plus barely held off Louisville earlier in the season.
On paper, Florida State should be able to beat the Miami Hurricanes (4-4), especially at home. Miami has struggled against some middling opposition as of late, beating Virginia Tech and Virginia in one-score games while losing by 24 to Duke.
But a closer look at the numbers shows two relatively evenly matched teams, particularly in some key areas. Florida State likes to run the ball, but Miami ranks 22nd in the country in rushing defense and is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing teams. The Hurricanes are 20th in the nation in passing yardage, while the Seminoles are allowing just 177.9 yards per game through the air. Both defenses should find success in slowing down the opposing attacks in this one, and that has me leaning toward this being a close, low-scoring affair.
I do think that Florida State will find a way to win this game, given how uninspiring Miami has been this season. However, it won’t be easy, and the Seminoles will likely make their fans nervous late. I’m taking the Hurricanes and the points.
