The pageantry of college football extends from national superpowers to small programs across the country, and I’ll be looking at the whole gamut of games on Saturday’s slate for my Week 3 college football picks.
Along with backing Montrell Johnson and the Florida Gators, the Vanderbilt Commodores have been impressive and now face another less-than-elite opponent this weekend. I also like the Houston Cougars’ chances of getting off the ground this week, while the matchup between the UMass Minutemen and Buffalo Bulls has a clear lean for bettors to jump on.
Best college football parlays for Week 3
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UMass/Buffalo Under 44.5 |
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Florida/Notre Dame Over 47.5 |
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Florida +3.5
Vanderbilt -10.5
Houston -4.5Best Week 3 parlay
UMass/Buffalo Under 44.5
Vanderbilt -10.5
Houston -4.5
The Massachusetts Minutemen and Buffalo Bulls aren’t going to make anyone’s list of marquee matchups this weekend, but these two struggling programs do have some clear trends we can target.
Buffalo was shut out last week against Missouri and only managed 30 points against FCS in its season opener. The Bulls are not known for their offense, having hit the Under in 10 consecutive games dating back to last year. UMass is also averaging a paltry 18.5 points per game on offense this season, which is enough to take the Under at a reasonable 44.5 total.
I’m not about to proclaim the Vanderbilt Commodores as a sleeper playoff pick, but this team is being underrated by the public at large. The Commodores won outright against Virginia Tech and followed up that performance by shutting out Alcorn State 55-0 last weekend. That’s hardly a surprise, but the margin of victory shows that this looks like a legitimate football team that will pound lesser opponents.
That’s what the Commodores get this week in the Georgia State Panthers, who lost by three scores to Georgia Tech before squeaking out a 24-21 win over Chattanooga last week. All signs are that Vanderbilt should win this one going away and easily cover the 10.5-point spread.
Finally, I’m betting on a winless team to get on the board this week as the Houston Cougars host the Rice Owls. Houston nearly sprung an upset against Oklahoma as four-touchdown underdogs last week, losing 16-12 in Norman. This is a capable squad that is now facing a Rice team that lost 34-14 to Sam Houston State, who are only in their second year in the FCS ranks. The Cougars should have little trouble covering this 4.5-point spread at home.
Best Week 3 SGP
Florida +3.5
Over 47.5
Montrell Johnson anytime touchdown
Neither the Texas A&M Aggies nor the Florida Gators are off to what we’d call fast starts in 2024. The Gators took a beating at the hands of rival Miami, while the Aggies' loss to Notre Dame looks a lot worse after the Irish suffered their own stunning upset last weekend.
Both teams bounced back with easy wins against cupcake opponents last week, making this a key test for the two SEC squads. While both teams are likely to finish middle-of-the-pack at best in college football’s deepest conference, I have a bit more faith in the Gators, who at least occasionally come through for bettors from time to time. Texas A&M always underwhelms, having covered exactly once in its last 10 games overall.
One thing both teams can do is score, as they proved in their respective blowout wins last weekend. These are offense-first teams who were able to put up at least some points against solid defenses — yes, even 13 against Notre Dame counts, as the Fighting Irish’s problem wasn’t on the defensive end against Northern Illinois. At the same time, neither team has slowed down a strong Power 4 offense in a long while, so I’m taking the Over.
Finally, I love Florida running back Montrell Johnson to find the endzone on Saturday. Johnson has already rushed for 173 yards and three scores on the year, and he was even able to find success against Miami when nearly nothing else was working for the Gators. Johnson has 32 touchdowns in his collegiate career and should be able to add to that total against the Aggies.
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