West Virginia vs Minnesota Guaranteed Rate Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gopher the Gold

The first four games on Tuesday's college football bowl game schedule have totals ranging from the mid-50s up to 60. But the final contest on the day's slate — the Guaranteed Rate Bowl between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Minnesota Golden Gophers — is expected to be far more defensive.

College football betting lines have Minnesota installed as a 4.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 45, making it the first game of the bowl season with a total Under 48.

Will this game be a low-scoring slugfest? We let you know what we think with our best free West Virginia vs. Minnesota betting picks and predictions for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday, December 28.

West Virginia vs Minnesota odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point favorite but is down to -4.5 as of December 21. The total opened at 44.5 before ticking up to 45.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

West Virginia vs Minnesota predictions

• Prediction: Minnesota -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 45 (-110)
• Best bet: Minnesota -4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

West Virginia vs Minnesota game info

• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Tuesday, December 28, 2021
• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

West Virginia vs Minnesota betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

West Virginia: Leddie Brown RB (Out), Lance Dixon LB (Questionable), Jackie Matthews CB (Questionable), Nicktroy Fortune CB (Out), Mike O'Laughlin TE (Out).
Minnesota: Bryce Williams RB (Out), Treyson Potts RB (Out), Mohamed Ibrahim RB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Golden Gophers are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Minnesota.

West Virginia vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

West Virginia wrapped up its regular season on a high note with back-to-back victories over Texas and Kansas to finish 6-6. That allowed the Mountaineers to break out of a seven-game slump that saw them go 2-5 straight up and 3-4 ATS.

The Mountaineers had a balanced offense led by quarterback Jarret Doege and running back Leddie Brown, however, Brown has decided to opt-out of the bowl game in order to focus on the NFL Draft. On defense, WVU has been a mixed bag, showing up for some games and giving up too many big plays in others.

The Golden Gophers ended their regular season with a 23-13 win over Wisconsin. They went 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games with one of those defeats coming by just five points on the road against a strong Iowa Hawkeyes squad.

Although the Gophers' ground game had a string of horrible luck, with three running backs coming down with season-ending injuries, they've still been chugging along with Ky Thomas and Mar'Keise Irving now toting the rock. Truth is that a 44-year-old Ricky Williams could probably do a couple of bong hits and then rip off 200 yards behind this powerful Minnesota offensive line anchored by Blaise Andries and Daniel Faalele.

However, the biggest reason for Minnesota's success has been the play of its defense, which has held foes to just 15.9 points per game and 4.44 yards per play since its season-opening loss to Ohio State.

Losing competitive games to Iowa and Ohio State isn't a problem for Minnesota. The issue is their other two defeats where they embarrassingly lost at home as massive favorites against Illinois and Bowling Green. The offense was the culprit in both contests, with Tanner Morgan throwing four picks and the Gophers mustering a total of just 530 yards with 16 points in those two games.

If the Gophers offense can get going, their defense will be sure to do its part to cover this spread. With the Mountaineers defense ranking outside the Top-80 schools in the country when it comes to opponent passer rating, and sitting outside the Top-100 in takeaways, they won't be able to frustrate the Gophers offense into giving this game away.

Prediction: Minnesota -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

With such a strong defense and an offense that has struggled to air the ball out, you might think the Under is the play, but the total of 45 looks a tad too low. Keep in mind that five of Minnesota's last seven games have seen at least 49 total points. Meanwhile, at least 46 points have been scored in six of West Virginia's last seven contests, including five contests that surpassed the 50-point plateau.

Doege will be tested by Minnesota's formidable pass defense but he's a fifth-year senior who completed 65.8% of his passed for 2,908 yards this season, so don't be so quick to sell your stock in Doege coin.

After a terrific sophomore season under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca in 2019, Minnesota quarterback Morgan has regressed over the last couple of years. However, Ciarrocca was re-hired a few weeks ago after spending time as the offensive analyst at (you guessed it) West Virginia and if he can help Morgan with his decision-making, this Gophers offense will become more effective. We're leaning towards the Over.

Prediction: Over 45 (-110)

Best bet

Based on this season alone, there isn't much reason to like WVU in this one. Sure, the Mountaineers might have the better passing attack, but their ground game isn't nearly as dynamic as Minnesota's (especially with Brown sitting out), and their defense isn't as good against either the run or pass. 

Add in the Mountaineers' recent history against quality opponents, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record, and Minnesota is clearly a favorite worth backing.

Pick: Minnesota -4.5 (-110)

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