West Virginia vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mountaineers Defense Stands Tall in Norman

It's a Big 12 affair in Norman when No. 17 Oklahoma welcomes West Virginia to town on Saturday as 13.5-point favorites in the college football odds.

"If you're not good enough, a loss will find you" is something the Sooners have learned over the last week. Oklahoma was in the College Football Playoff discussion two weeks ago but has lost two straight since then. Last week, it was in Bedlam to archrival Oklahoma State by three points.

West Virginia has played its best football lately with two straight wins, including a dominant defensive performance last week. It will arrive in Norman after a blowout victory over BYU, as they held the Cougars to their second-lowest point total of the season at seven.

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks for Saturday, November 11.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma best odds

West Virginia vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

Maybe West Virginia head coach Neal Brown has figured something out with this West Virginia defense. It's coming off its best defensive performance of the season and has continually improved throughout the year. West Virginia is also doing an exceptional job at one particular stat.

The Mountaineers enter this game leading the country in ball hawk rate at 20%. Ball-hawk rate calculates the percentage in which players make a play on the ball, and nobody has been better in the country at doing this. As you'd expect with this stat, WVU ranks high in total interceptions with nine, which is tied for 13th best in the nation. That's not good enough for Brown, though. 

"We had two interceptions that hit our hands. We gotta be able to catch those balls," he said about missing chances while facing an inexperienced quarterback last week.

This week may be when they start catching more of those balls and force a turnover. With that in mind, I'd consider betting Oklahoma QB Dillion Gabriel to throw an interception as my best bet, but it's not offered in the market. I'll be taking West Virginia and the points as my best bet.

West Virginia's rushing offense has been prolific this season. It is in the Top 50 nationally of any EPA-related statistics, and is led by CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White. Donaldson has gotten the tough yards for the Eers this season, as he comes into this one approaching 700 yards. White is the change-of-pace guy and has averaged over eight yards per carry.

Oklahoma ranks 11th overall in success rate against the run, making the ground game tough sledding. However, the story here is West Virginia's commitment to the run. It enters this one 19th in running plays called per game. We're banking on that trend continuing as West Virginia looks to shorten this game and bleed the clock. That bodes well when looking for a cover.

Conversely, everyone knows how prolific this Oklahoma offense has been. 

Gabriel would be right in the middle of the Heisman odds conversation if not for the back-to-back losses. The Sooners' passing offense is Top 10 in nearly every category, including success rate, where it comes in fourth. We're not asking West Virginia to shut down this passing attack – it's not going to. We're asking it to make a few plays to preserve this spread, and it should be able to do that.

This goes back directly to that aforementioned "ball hawk" stat. Gabriel has thrown a pick in three straight games. The Mountaineers look like a team ripe to force a turnover and cause more havoc on some of those passes. 

I projected this spread at 10. I'll take what's close to two touchdowns here with West Virginia.

My best bet: West Virginia +13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

West Virginia +13.5

Oklahoma TT Under 35.5

+138 at FanDuel

With limited options in the market, we are left with a highly-correlated same-game parlay.

This one is mostly self-explanatory. West Virginia gets the cover here and does it with ball control by leaning on its rushing game. It'll do enough to cover and keep the ball out of Oklahoma's hands sufficient to where they don't score more than 35 points. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

Oklahoma should do enough to win this game. It's riding a two-game losing streak and gets a team with limited offensive firepower at home. With that said, we're comfortable taking West Virginia to cover as our best bet. 

This spread opened at -12.5 and took enough money on the Sooners to move it to -13.5. It's stayed there for a few days now.

Oklahoma will enter this one failing to cover a spread in three straight games. It looks like a team losing steam at the end of the season. Head-to-head, Oklahoma has enjoyed absolute dominance in this series, with wins in nine of the last 10 meetings. But the Sooners were upset by West Virginia when the pair met last season.

In addition, these games have often been close, with three of the previous four being decided by a field goal or less.

I lean Under here but I'll pass on a play, as 58 perfectly aligns with my projections. 

As we mentioned earlier, it feels like Oklahoma is running on fumes to end the season. Its seen some lower-scoring games of late, as two of its last three have gone Under. It's unlikely that West Virginia covers here if this total goes Over, so the thought process of it being lower-scoring aligns with our expected game flow. 

West Virginia vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS in its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for West Virginia vs Oklahoma.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma game info

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