Good luck finding two Power Five teams that couldn’t find themselves in more polar opposite positions than West Virginia and Penn State, who kickoff their seasons against each other at Beaver Stadium on Saturday on NBC.
Vibes couldn’t be any greater for the Nittany Lions coming off an 11-2 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory, while the Mountaineers had a losing record for the second straight season and the third time in four years under head coach Neal Brown.
With Penn State head coach James Franklin putting together arguably the most talented roster in his 10th season with the program, and Brown’s butt being hotter than any coach in the country, things could get out of hand Saturday.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Penn State on Saturday, September 2.
West Virginia vs Penn State best odds
West Virginia vs Penn State picks and predictions
It’s a new era in Happy Valley with Sean Clifford set to backup Jordan Love in Green Bay, former five-star recruit Drew Allar is ready to take over and potentially take Penn State to heights they haven’t seen during the Franklin era.
Not only do the defending Rose Bowl champs return eight starters on an offense that finished 34th in EPA per pass play, they theoretically are upgrading at the most important position on the field.
It sure says something that Clifford, a four-year starter for the Nittany Lions and the programs all-time leading passer, could go fifth-round in the NFL Draft and Penn State feels like they’ve improved at the position.
In limited action as a true freshman, Allar showed why he was one of the most coveted recruits in the country with his explosive arm talent and ability to hit tight windows. Across 10 appearances, he threw for 344 yards while adding four touchdowns through the air and another on the ground.
While you never know for certain how a blue chip recruit will develop from their freshman to sophomore season, Allar’s first start comes at home against a West Virginia program that’s down on its luck.
Last season, the Mountaineers defense finished 108th in EPA per pass play on defense, 10th worst among all Power Five programs. With only four returning starters on defense, including just one in the secondary (Aubrey Burks), Allar is poised to put on a show.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich won’t have to worry about his young quarterback lacking weapons either, receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith and tight end Theo Johnson should be the next Nittany Lions pass catchers to be drafted.
Kent State transfer Dante Cephas also joins the team after putting up over 1,900 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last two seasons with the Golden Flashes.
It certainly helps that Penn State’s entire starting offensive line from the Rose Bowl team returns, led by Olumuyiwa Fashanu, a likely Top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Running behind the big uglies will be the one-two punch of sophomore backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined to rush for 1,928 yards and 22 touchdowns as true freshmen. Both look like future NFL stars.
Good luck to Brown’s offense keeping up with Penn State in this one, they return six starters, with five of them coming on an offensive line that was part of the reason West Virginia finished 93rd in EPA per rush in 2022. Center Zach Frazier is a star, but the rest of the group has been plagued by inconsistent play.
Brown has yet to name a starting quarterback ahead of the game Saturday, however junior Garrett Greene is expected to get the first crack at it after throwing for 493 yards with 10 total touchdowns last season.
Whoever is back there will have to deal with one of the scariest front sevens in college football led by potential first-round pick Chop Robinson.
Joining Robinson in hunting the quarterback are fellow NFL prospect Adisa Isaac and last year’s freshman phenom Abdul Carter; the three of them combined for 31.5 TFLs and 16 sacks in 2022.
Even with wide receiver Devin Carter — and his 1,906 career receiving yards — transferring into the program from North Carolina State, he’ll have the tough task of dealing with Kalen King, one of the best cornerbacks in the country.
This will be the start of the call to fire Brown, who is the odds on favorite at about +250 at books offering futures on who will be the first FBS head coach fired.
He’s 22-25 in four seasons and has four years left on his contract… if he’s fired before December 31, 2024 he’s owed 100% of this remaining contract. His buyout is likely the reason he’s still employed, and could keep him employed for another year.
My best bet: Penn State -20.5 (-110 at bet365)
West Virginia vs Penn State same-game parlay
Penn State -20.5
Penn State 1H moneyline
Over 50.5
In a nationally televised game in primetime with no team ranked higher than them playing at the same time, Penn State is in a position to make a major statement.
Not only can they roll right through one of the worst Power Five rosters in college football, but Franklin can showcase the offensive firepower his team has to build hope that they’ll compete with Michigan and Ohio State this season.
Look for the Nittany Lions to score big, and to score quickly, they’ve been known to handle business in the first half… especially last season.
Penn State hit the 1H moneyline in 11 of their 13 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI) in 2022 and hit a game total of Over 50.5 in 10 of those 13 games.
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West Virginia vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
It’s been Penn State since the jump with the Nittany Lions opening as -19.5 to -20.5-point favorites at pretty much every book.
There’s a buzz in the air around what this team can do this season with NFL talent at every position and a potential game-changing quarterback, the type of passer they haven’t had during the Franklin era… and he knows it.
"I think the things that jump out to you right away is he can make a couple throws very few people on the planet can make," Franklin recently told reporters about Allar.
The Nittany Lions are set to tee off on a West Virginia team that very few believe in; most books have the Mountaineers win total at just 4.5 games.
The team doesn’t even have a clear-cut quarterback heading into the season opener, and Brown’s squad was picked to finish last in the 14-team Big 12.
"Looking forward to proving everybody wrong on that front," Brown said. "We won't finish there.”
He’ll have a hard time doing that when his defense allowed at least 38 points in seven of its 12 games last season… but that bodes well for the Over.
The game total opened at between 51.5 and 52.5 at most books and has since shifted to between 50 and 50.5 at most, potentially because West Virginia won’t name their starting quarterback.
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West Virginia vs Penn State betting trend to know
Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for West Virginia vs. Penn State. Find more college football betting trends for West Virginia vs Penn State.
West Virginia vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, September 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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