The Backyard Brawl is back! West Virginia and Pittsburgh will throw down in this storied rivalry for the first time since 2011 in what is shaping up to be a thrilling season-opening matchup.
Pitt comes in as the reigning ACC champions and West Virginia is looking like a sleeper in the Big 12, but both teams come into this one having to deal with some significant roster turnover, most notably at quarterback.
Kedon Slovis has some big shoes to fill after what Kenny Pickett did for the Panthers last year, and JT Daniels is hoping to finally stay healthy with his latest team.
Which former USC QB has the betting edge in the Backyard Brawl? Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 1 showdown between West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh best odds
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
My best bet: West Virginia +7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Can you believe it’s been more than a decade since the last Backyard Brawl? Well, I’m thrilled it's back, and it’s a hell of a way to kick off Week 1 of the college football season on Thursday night.
This game is intriguing on so many levels, starting with the fact that it will be a showdown of two former USC quarterbacks in Kedon Slovis and JT Daniels.
Slovis threw for 7,576 yards and 58 touchdowns over three years at USC but transferred out after the emergence of Jaxson Dart and the regime change for the Trojans. Now, Slovis has some big shoes to fill, after Kenny Pickett was a Heisman finalist last season while leading the Panthers to an ACC Championship and a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Slovis will be working in a different offense with coordinator Mark Whipple moving over to the same position at Nebraska. Additionally, Slovis regressed in his final year at USC, throwing 11 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions before losing the starting gig.
Slovis will also have to make do without Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison, who transferred to USC (so many Trojan angles here).
Meanwhile, Daniels is hoping West Virginia is finally the proper landing spot for him, and that he can finally stay healthy. If he can, don’t underestimate this Mountaineers offense. It helps that head coach Neal Brown brought in Daniel’s OC from USC in 2019 Graham Harrell.
He will also be working behind one of the most veteran offensive lines in the Big 12, one that returns all five of its starters, and he’ll have two great weapons out wide in Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Sam James.
Even though the Pitt defense returns a lot of players on the defensive line and secondary, this is a unit that ranked 119th nationally, allowing 280 passing yards per game. So, if the Mountaineers' o-line can keep Daniels upright, he’ll have a chance to attack the Panthers downfield.
Pitt is the favorite here because of last year’s finish, getting a former USC QB in the transfer portal, and a strong returning cast in the trenches, but that is basically the exact same story for West Virginia, minus the results from last year.
The Mountaineers can match the Panthers on a lot of levels, so taking them getting more than a touchdown in a rivalry game feels like a strong play.
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West Virginia vs Pittsburgh betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
This line opened with Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite and has been moving in its direction ever since. The Panthers are now 7.5-point favorites as of Tuesday afternoon and I wouldn’t be surprised to hit 8 or 8.5 before kickoff.
So, while my best bet is West Virginia +7.5 maybe wait to see if we can get even more value with the Mountaineers.
As I noted, it’s easy to see why Pittsburgh is favored by more than a touchdown now. Not only will Pitt be starting an experienced quarterback under center and feature strong play on both lines, but it also has a win total of 8.5 while West Virginia is a much more modest 5.5.
After Pitt’s success last season, it'll be the more recognizable team and will likely be the side that sees the most money wagered on it when all is said and done, but the main reasons for that success — Pickett, Addison, and Whipple — are all gone.
So, this is giving a lot of credit to a team dealing with a ton of changes while going against a rival that can match them at almost every level.
It doesn't hurt that Pitt is just 12-18-1 ATS as a home favorite under Pat Narduzzi.
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the number opened as high as 55 at some sportsbooks, but that number is long gone as bettors have hammered the Under.
Now, we are looking at a total in the 50.5-51 range, and it makes sense.
While there are two good former USC quarterbacks in this game, there are also two very good defensive lines as well, and both of these units have a chance to control the line of scrimmage. And heck, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi came out and said he wants to see this team more dedicated to running the football — something all Under bettors love to hear.
That said, that number might be low enough now to consider the other side.
While Pitt’s D-line should be ferocious, when it didn't get in the backfield, it gave up a ton of yards through the air.
For West Virginia, it could have as many as four new starters in its secondary after ranking 39th nationally in pass yards allowed per game, so there certainly could be some regression there.
This game has a fun feeling to it. Both quarterbacks will have a chance to let it fly, and while I don’t have a play on the total, I’m leaning towards the Over at this lower number.
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh game info
• Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh key injuries
West Virginia: No key injuries to report.
Pittsburgh: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest College football injury reports.
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Pitt is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or more. Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh.
