This year's edition of the Boca Raton Bowl will see the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers battle against the Appalachian State Mountaineers, kicking off a busy six-game college football bowl schedule.
Appalachian State and Western Kentucky meet after both teams lost their respective conference title game — the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt to Louisiana, and Western Kentucky in the Conference USA to UTSA.
History will be on the line as Hilltoppers quarterback Bailey Zappe sits within striking distance of two major NCAA passing records. With 5,545 yards and 56 touchdowns on the season, Zappe needs 289 yards to break the single-season passing yards record and five touchdowns to break Joe Burrow’s passing touchdowns record.
Will history be made in the Boca Raton Bowl? Here are our best college football betting picks and predictions for Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State on December 18.
Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Appalachian State opened as -2.5 favorites but the line quickly moved to -3. The total has gone up a full point from the opener at 66, sitting at 67 at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State predictions
Predictions made on 12/12/2021 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State game info
• Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Western Kentucky: Corey Sutton WR (Out).
Appalachian State: Joshua Simon TE (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mountaineers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 Bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State.
Western Kentucky vs Appalachian State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Appalachian State has been one of the most consistent teams in college football since making the jump to the FBS level. The Mountaineers won seven games in year one of the step-up in 2014, and have gone on to win at least nine games in every season since. Despite losing multiple coaches to the Power 5 ranks, they’ve kept on churning out winning season after winning season, a testament to the program’s stability.
This year was yet another winning one in Boone, although fans may be hesitant to call it “successful” after a loss to Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship game. The Mountaineers won 10 games in all, losing to Louisiana twice and a nail-biter to Miami.
Western Kentucky is the shiny new toy thanks to quarterback Bailey Zappe and the No. 1-ranked passing offense in the country. The Hilltoppers dominated against the spread, going 9-4 on the season. Rising star offensive coordinator Zach Kittley is expected to coach in the bowl game after being hired away by Texas Tech, but it’s fair to question whether or not his full attention will be devoted to this matchup.
After falling to 1-4 to begin the season, Western Kentucky rattled off seven straight victories before falling in the conference championship. However, the level of competition was far from elite — they defeated only two bowl teams all season.
The Mountaineers present a stiffer challenge than the Hilltoppers are used to seeing. The defense held firm for Western Kentucky during the soft parts of the schedule, but that unit has been gashed against better teams. The Mountaineers are a more well-rounded football team (17th offensively, 46th defensively) than the Hilltoppers (2nd offensively, 98th defensively) and they should come out on top with relative ease.
Prediction: Appalachian State -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
We expect this Western Kentucky offense to air it out all game long in attempts for Zappe to break at least one of the two single-season passing records within reach. Arguably the most impressive part of this scenario is that Zappe has a legitimate shot at Joe Burrow’s touchdown record despite playing in one fewer game. Burrow threw for 60 TDs in 2019 in 15 games and Zappe currently has 56 TDs in only 13. This Mountaineers defense is good, but it’s a Herculean effort to keep Zappe from lighting up the scoreboard.
It was masked in the middle part of the schedule when the Hilltoppers were playing lesser opponents, but their defense is no good. The few times they’ve played good offenses, they’ve been torched: 48 to Michigan State, 52 and 49 to UTSA in two matchups. The Mountaineers have a balanced offense behind Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice (3,022 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt) and a top-20 rushing attack spearheaded by back Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples.
Prediction: Over 67 (-110)
Best bet
Expect these offenses to light up the scoreboard. Western Kentucky will be hellbent on putting Zappe in a position to rewrite the college football record books, and there’s only one way to accomplish that feat — throw the heck out of the football.
The Hilltoppers have been torched by good offenses this season, and Appalachian State has more than enough to offer offensively to take advantage of a soft defense.
Pick: Over 67 (-110)
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