Western Kentucky vs Ohio State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: McCord and Reed Dice Up Defenses

Usually, the high-powered premier college football programs don’t take on anyone of interest in their annual blowout of a mid-major in a non-conference game, but the Ohio State Buckeyes play one of the most consistent Group of Five programs this weekend when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers coming to town.

These are two schools that love to throw the football and it sets up well for plenty of passing yards and big days for the offenses, especially with how both teams’ defenses have looked thus far. All of that can be attributed to why college football odds have this total set at 64.

Find out where my best bets lie in my college football picks for Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State on Saturday, September 16.

Western Kentucky vs Ohio State best odds

Western Kentucky vs Ohio State picks and predictions

A game total of 64 can feel like a lot when it involves a Group of Five program, but this isn’t just any G5 school.

Since 2014, five different Hilltoppers quarterbacks have finished Top 5 in the country in passing yards, and on four occasions a Western Kentucky passer has led college football in passing. In contrast, since 2017 when Ryan Day took over as offensive coordinator at Ohio State, a Buckeyes QB has led the country in passing yards once and has finished Top 25 in passing on three other occasions.

The point is, the ball is going to be thrown a lot in this game — and both teams have weapons on the perimeter with NFL futures who will make the extraordinary seem ordinary with the frequency in which they turn in jaw-dropping plays. Through two games this season, the Buckeyes are 27th in EPA per play on offense with the Hilltoppers 22nd.

Defensively it’s been a different story for both schools… Western Kentucky is 109th in EPA per play with Ohio State 45th. The Buckeyes are even worse against the pass, where they’re 63rd in EPA per play, and that bodes well for Austin Reed.

After transferring up from D-II West Florida last season, Reed threw for at least two touchdowns in 13 of 14 games; including two apiece against Power Five opponents. The Hilltoppers aren’t lacking weapons to pressure the Ohio State secondary with receiver Malachi Corley, a top NFL Draft prospect after finishing with 101 receptions for 1,295 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.

On the other side, everyone knows about future Top 10 pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s coming off a 160-yard two-touchdown performance, yet even if the Hilltoppers blanket him, Brian Hartline’s receiver room is as loaded as it gets.

How can Western Kentucky possibly slow Harrison Jr., fellow first-round prospect Emeka Egbuka, former five-star recruit Julian Fleming, top tight end Cade Stover, and all the other blue chips waiting in the wings?

With Harrison Jr.’s former high school quarterback Kyle McCord officially being named the Buckeyes starter, Day seems confident that consistency under center is the key to this team reaching its potential. McCord is coming off a 258-yard, three-touchdown passing performance where he fed his former high school teammate, and if he keeps targeting Harrison Jr., points should be plentiful.

My best bet: Over 64 (-110 at bet365)

Western Kentucky vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Over 63.5

Western Kentucky TT Over 17.5

Ohio State -14.5

+230 at bet365

The Buckeyes are known to hit the Over, and it certainly helps that the Hilltoppers haven’t hit the game total Under in any of their last three away games.

When it comes to Western Kentucky topping 17.5 points, the program has managed to hit the team total Over in three of its last four games.

So far this season the Hilltoppers scored 41 points and 52 points against lesser competition, but last season they scored a combined 47 points against Power Five competition.

As for Ohio state, covering a spread as big as -29 isn’t easy, but bring that down to -14.5 to juice up the SGP and we’re cruising.

This season, the Buckeyes have beaten both their opponents by at least 20 after destroying the two Group of Five programs they played last year: They won 45-12 against Arkansas State and 77-21 against Toledo.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Western Kentucky vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

After closing as 30-point favorites against Indiana and 45.5-point favorites against Youngstown State, the Buckeyes have failed to cover through two games.

They opened as 27-point favorites against the Hilltoppers with the line continuing to move in their direction, with most books now having them at -29.

Covering will be a tall task for Western Kentucky against one of the best programs in college football. For what it’s worth, the Hilltoppers easily covered the 13.5-point spread against South Florida, but couldn’t cover the 42.5-point spread against Houston Christian.

Given these are two of the most consistently explosive offenses in the nation, the game total opened between 63.5 and 65.5 with most books settling at 64.

Last season the Hilltoppers were involved in six games that cleared 64 total points and the Buckeyes were in eight. 

Since Ryan Day was named Ohio State’s head coach in 2019, the Buckeyes have scored at least 41 points against every Group of Five program they have played. 

Western Kentucky vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the game total Over in nine of its last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Ohio State.

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