Northern Illinois clinched the MAC West title with last week’s overtime victory over Buffalo. The improvement has been vast for a team that finished 0-6 just a year ago.
Meanwhile, Western Michigan sits at only 6-5 despite outgaining opponents by over 100 yards per game.
Will the Huskies be motivated to grab another victory, or will they rest on their laurels having already clinched the division?
Read our full college football betting picks and predictions for the Western Michigan Broncos vs. the Northern Illinois Huskies on Tuesday, November 23 to find out.
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line has remained steady across most books from the opener of Western Michigan -3.5. The total has dropped from 63.5 to 62.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois predictions
Predictions made on 11/22/2021 at 8:12 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois game info
• Location: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
• Date: Tuesday, November 23, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPNU
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Western Michigan: Corey Crooms WR (Questionable), Anthony Torres TE (Questionable).
Northern Illinois: Harrison Waylee RB (Out), Tyrice Richie WR (Questionable), Devin Lafayette S (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Huskies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois.
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Western Michigan’s underlying statistics paint the picture of a team that should have a better record than 6-5 overall and 4-6-1 ATS. The offense has had no problem moving the ball, ranking 25th with 447.5 total yards per game, and the defense has been solid, ranking 34th with only 342.5 yards allowed per game. There’s no clear weakness, either, as the Broncos rank inside the top 50 in rushing and passing on both sides of the ball.
The Broncos are a better team than their record shows, while Northern Illinois has benefited from a lot of one-score victories en route to a bloated record. The Broncos have outgained opponents by 105 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Huskies are being outgained on a per-play basis (6.0 yards per play offensively, 6.6 allowed defensively).
If that's not enough to convince you of Western Michigan's superior efficiency, take a look at season-long success rates. The Broncos have a higher offensive success rate (48% to 46%) and a much better defensive success rate (39% allowed to 48%). There’s a reason why the Broncos are favored in this game, even as the traveling team.
Northern Illinois wrapped up the Division title a week ago and has little else left to play for, so why not rest up some players, dial back the playbook, and focus on the conference championship game? This is a clear sandwich spot between last week’s division-clinching win and next week’s title game.
Prediction: Western Michigan -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
It’s going to be a cold and windy night in DeKalb, and it's going to heavily impact our capping of this total. As of the time of this writing, the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-30s and winds of 15-17 miles per hour.
Winds of over 15 miles per hour could significantly hamper both teams’ passing attacks. The Broncos average 254.3 passing yards per game led by quarterback Kaleb Eleby and a trio of dangerous receivers (Skyy Moore, Corey Crooms, Jaylen Hall). The Huskies have averaged 336 yards over their last 4 games led by the emergence of receiver Trayvon Rudolph. Both attacks will be limited by the conditions.
Throw in the fact that Northern Illinois will look to limit possessions and simply make it out healthy for next week’s championship game, and we have a strong lean to the Under.
Prediction: Under 62.5 (-106)
Best bet
Western Michigan has the advantage in nearly every statistical category. Despite vastly underperforming their metrics, the Broncos are still going bowling and have a chance at notching another win on Tuesday night.
The situational spot is also in their favor given that the Huskies have the MAC Championship game on deck. We’re riding with the Broncos.
Pick: Western Michigan -3.5 (-110)
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