When the 2020 Big Ten schedule finally got released, college football bettors and fans alike circled Nov. 14 on the calendar with the Michigan Wolverines set to host the Wisconsin Badgers.
Then, the season started. Michigan already has two losses on the season and people are wondering how much longer Jim Harbaugh will last in Ann Arbor. While Wisconsin opened the year with an impressive victory, then had a COVID-19 outbreak and hasn’t played since.
So, let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for Wisconsin vs Michigan, with kickoff scheduled for Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 ET.
Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a cloudy and cold night in Ann Arbor, ominous some might say. The forecast is calling for cloudy skies with a small chance or rain as the evening rolls along, with temperatures hovering around the 40 degree mark at game time. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Wisconsin: Graham Mertz QB (Questionable), Chase Wolf QB (Questionable), Adam Krumholz WR (Questionable), Jack Coan QB (Out).
Michigan: Jordan Morant DB (Questionable), Jalen Mayfield OL (Questionable), Ryan Hayes OL (Questionable), Aidan Hutchinson DL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 6-0 in Wisconsin's last six games as a favorite, 8-0 in Michigan's last eight games as a home underdog, and 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these Big Ten rivals. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Michigan opened the season with what looked like an impressive road win over Minnesota, but that win loses some of its luster every week with the way the Golden Gophers are playing. More troubling is that Wolverines followed that win with back-to-back losses.
The first was to rival Michigan State in a 27-24 game where the Wolverines were 21.5-point home favorites, while the second was a 38-21 drubbing at the hands of Indiana despite going off as 4.5-point road favorites.
The biggest problems for the Wolverines this season have been not being able to establish a run game, and their pass defense has more holes than a block of Swiss.
First the run game. While the Wolverines are averaging five yards per carry this season, Harbaugh is rotating five backs and never seems to allow any of them to get into a rhythm. As a result, Michigan ranks 82nd in rushing yards per game.
But it's the defense that is more troubling. It starts with the fact that the Wolverines have not been able to generate a pass rush and are leaving a young secondary out to dry. And they're getting burned. Michigan’s pass defense ranks 104th in the country, allowing 287.3 yards per game through the air. If Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz is healthy, watch out.
Mertz was one of Wisconsin’s biggest QB recruits in years, and with Jack Coan suffering a foot injury, he was thrust into the starter’s role, and he did not disappoint in his debut. Mertz went 20-21 for 248 yards, with five touchdowns and no picks in the Badgers' 45-7 win over Illinois. But of course, Mertz played that game with COVID, the outbreak in Madison happened, and they haven’t played since.
It’s hard to know what to take from just one game against one of the conference’s weaker teams, but the Wisconsin defense is expected to be solid once again, and the running back by committee did a good job replacing the departed Jonathan Taylor.
Michigan is just a mess right now and it's hard to back a team with this much uncertainty. If Mertz is healthy, Wisconsin could cruise.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin -4 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this Big Ten battle is on the board at 54.5, which is the highest number these two teams have seen since they have started playing each other every season back in 2016, by a whole seven points.
Wisconsin cleared their first total of the season by doing the heavy lifting against Illinois, while Michigan is 2-1 O/U with the one Under (against Michigan State) missing by just one point.
Now, if Mertz can knock off the rust early, there’s no reason to think that the Badgers can’t do their part to get this number over the total. The offensive line looked good against Illinois and shouldn’t have too much of a problem with the Michigan pass rush.
But can Michigan do its part? The Wolverines are still scoring 31.3 points per contest and would probably need to score three majors or so for this one to go Over. While the Badgers defense is expected to be solid, they had a little trouble with Illini dual-threat QB Brandon Peters, who didn’t have much success through the air, but ran for 87 yards.
So, there is an opportunity for Michigan QB Joe Milton to have some success here. Milton has shown some inconsistencies in the pass game, but has still thrown for 869 yards and added another 102 yards on the ground.
We’re sticking with the trends in this instance and taking the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 54.5 (-110)
Team to Score First Prop Pick
Part of the problem for Michigan in its last two losses has been that the Wolverines have started in a hole. In each of the last two weeks, Michigan allowed its opponents to open the scoring and if they’re not careful, it could happen again versus Wisconsin.
The Badgers scored first in their only game against Illinois and did not allow an offensive touchdown. There is good value in betting the Badgers to get on the scoreboard first in this one.
PREDICTION: Team to score first - Wisconsin (-138)
Wisconsin vs Michigan Betting Card
- Wisconsin -4 (-110)
- Over 54.5 (-110)
- Team to score first - Wisconsin (-138)
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