Wisconsin vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Badgers Handed a Beating in Columbus

After a few underwhelming performances to begin the season, it felt like Ohio State wanted to prove a point last week against in-state rival Toledo. The Buckeyes sure as hell did that with a 77-21 destruction of the Rockets.

The Buckeyes will look to carry that momentum into this week when they host Wisconsin. While the Badgers may be contenders to win the Big Ten West division, it’s hard to say they are on the same level as Ohio State. The 18-point spread in this matchup is evidence.

Even with Wisconsin’s strong defense, is 18 points enough to spot the Badgers against this high-octane Buckeyes offense? I’ll break it down and give you my best bet in college football picks and predictions for this Big Ten battle between Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State best odds

Wisconsin vs Ohio State picks and predictions

We all knew that a performance like that from Ohio State was more of a question of when rather than if. 

CJ Stroud is doing his thing, throwing for 941 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 72.9% of his passes. It seems like he has an unlimited supply of uber-talented wide receivers to throw to with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka joining once-again healthy Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

Running back TreVeyon Henderson’s status is up in the air after suffering an injury last week, but wouldn’t you know it, the Buckeyes have another awesome running back in Miyan Williams who is rumbling for 6.3 yards per carry.

The team is just firing on all cylinders. For instance, the Buckeyes committed just one penalty last week. Oh, and have turned over the ball just once all season. So, you can say that Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonard will have his hands full. 

Now, this is a Wisconsin defense, and Leonard won’t let them be embarrassed, but that likely won’t be the biggest problem for the Badgers in this game. 

That will actually be the Ohio State defense. While the competition doesn’t tell us much, it is obvious this unit has shown improvement under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. He'll have a straightforward game plan heading into this matchup: Make Graham Mertz beat you.

Expect Knowles to load up the box to shut down Wisconsin’s star running back Braelon Allen and force Mertz to throw the ball. That has not gone well whenever Mertz has played basically not-bad defenses. 

Just look how he performed in the Badgers' shocking home loss to Washington State a few weeks ago. It was check-down city and more turnovers.

The Badgers' defense will keep this respectable for a bit, but a couple of turnovers and the talent gap will help the Buckeyes pull away late. Lay the points.

My best bet: Ohio State -18.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

I've got one more bet for this game I really like.

There is definitely a chance running back TreVeyon Henderson is not 100% for this one. There are even whispers they could hold him out as a precaution. Even if he does put on the pads, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Buckeyes lean on Miyan Williams, whose 207 rushing yards actually leads the team.

Getting a Buckeye at plus money to score can be rare, so Williams is a good value to find the end zone in this one.

My best bet: Miyan Williams anytime touchdown (+115 at FanDuel)

Wisconsin vs Ohio State betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather

Spread analysis

This spread hit the board with Ohio State as 18-point home chalk and quickly move up to 18.5. As of Friday afternoon, bettors are starting to think the same way I am, as 19.5s are starting to pop up, so jump on the 18.5 quickly if you like the Buckeyes.

Now, those looking to fade Ohio State will point to the Buckeyes’ season-opening game against Notre Dame. Then, a solid Irish defense shut down the prolific Buckeyes attack for most of the game in an eventual 21-10 victory for Ohio State.

I would argue that it was the first game of the season against a tough opponent and that now things are rolling for the Buckeyes. And the Irish did a good job of taking care of the ball in that game, while the Badgers have committed four turnovers over the last two weeks.

Most importantly, it’s the play of Stroud compared to that of Mertz. Stroud and the Buckeyes can attack you in so many ways. Mertz just can’t. With a defense that ranks 23rd in the country in opponent yards per play (4.4), it is reasonable to see a line like this, even against a Big Ten West contender.

Over/Under analysis

The total for this Big Ten battle hit the board at around 56 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 57. While I believe Ohio State can generate enough offense to cover an 18.5-point spread, that doesn’t necessarily mean I think this game will go Over the number.

That’s mostly due to the Badgers’ offense. Until Mertz can show me something other than what he has been for the most part the last two seasons, it’s hard to envision him leading the Wisconsin offense to a lot of points in this one. 

While the Badgers have run up the score in both of their easy games, they managed just 14 points in the loss to Wazzu. They also mustered just 3.9 yards per carry in that one, and that’s the other point to this. Whether or not it’s effective, the Badgers will run the ball and milk the clock. They know if they want to have a shot in this one, it will be by controlling the clock and limiting Ohio State’s possessions. 

So while I don’t have an official play here, I would lean towards the Under 57 in something like a 38-17 game.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Wisconsin is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when facing a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Ohio State.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State game info

• Location: Ohio Stadium Columbus, OH
• Date: Saturday, September 24, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

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