Wisconsin vs Purdue Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Boilermakers Cooked by Badger Run Game

A showdown of two Big Ten programs with new head coaches, Wisconsin and Purdue, will be a good warmup on Friday night for a Saturday full of marquee games and worthwhile college football odds.

Luke Fickell’s Badgers team still seems to be searching for an identity after a tough Week 2 loss in Pullman to Washington State, but things could be shaping up at the right time with how their rushing attack looked in Week 3 against Georgia Southern. 

They head to West Lafayette to kick off their Big Ten conference schedule with Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters’ squad coming off an ugly home loss to Syracuse to start the season 1-2. The loser of this game is going to have to do a lot of soul-searching. 

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Purdue on Friday, September 22.

Wisconsin vs Purdue best odds

Wisconsin vs Purdue picks and predictions

The loss to Washington State had a lot of Badger faithful concerned about the direction of the program with an air raid disciple, Phil Longo, in the offensive coordinator chair. 

Given Wisconsin’s deep history of punishing defensive fronts with its farm boy offensive linemen and superstar running backs, it’s only natural that they would resent an offense that’s spread out and inherently more pass-happy.

But despite Longo running the air raid scheme, it’s not the uncut stuff that Mike Leach used to rely on, the Wisconsin offensive coordinator tailors his play-calling to his team's strengths.

When Longo was Mack Brown’s playcaller at North Carolina, he would ensure his offense ran through his top playmakers, whether that was Sam Howell, Josh Downs, or the running back combo of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.

It seems as though Longo has realized that Tanner Mordecai isn’t a quarterback who can go out and put the team on his back, but a running back as strong as Braelon Allen can certainly carry the Badgers to a win.

With the line for Allen set at 82.5 rushing yards against Purdue, this is the time to put trust in the 19-year-old junior who is more than likely going to be a top-100 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

There are few backs as big and explosive as Allen in recent memory that have also been as productive as the young star. As a freshman and sophomore, he ran for a combined 2,510 yards and 23 touchdowns.

In 25 games with the Badgers, he’s finished with less than 83 rushing yards just seven times, and on three of those occasions, he was a true freshman who had not yet been named the starting running back.

With the way Wisconsin has looked passing the ball this season, 93rd in EPA per play, Longo will begin to lean more and more on his running back tandem of Allen and Chez Mellusi; the duo has combined for 522 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry in three games this season.

Knowing he’s got two future NFL backs, Longo will embrace the ground game, especially against a Purdue defense that’s been below average against the run, they rank 62nd in EPA per play. Last week against the Orange, the Boilermakers gave up 271 rushing yards.

The most valid concern with Allen crossing 82.5 rushing yards is the fact that he splits touches with Mellusi, but Longo has proven he knows how to feed his backs. In their two seasons as the Tar Heels co-lead backs with Longo calling plays, Carter averaged 93.6 rushing yards per game and Williams averaged 86.3 rushing yards per game; the duo ran for 4,321 combined yards.

Allen’s breakaway ability will also help him top the yardage mark in a hurry, in his previous two games against Purdue he’s rushed for 253 yards on just 28 carries.

My best bet: Braelon Allen Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Wisconsin vs Purdue same-game parlay

Braelon Allen Over 82.5 rushing yards

Braelon Allen anytime TD

Wisconsin -6.5

+320 at bet365

With Allen coming off a 94-yard rushing performance, including two touchdowns that sparked the Badgers in the second half against Georgia Southern, it appears that Fickell and Longo are preparing to go to their bruising back more.

Most of Allen’s carries against the Eagles came in the second half and Fickell mentioned the energy that came with those strong runs from his star.

“It was a six-yard run and an eight-yard run and it was physical,” he said. “That’s where I think you started to feel some things.”

This season, Allen has scored at least two touchdowns in two of three games and for his career at Wisconsin, he’s scored at least one touchdown in 16 of 25 games.

In the 16 games Allen has scored a touchdown in, Wisconsin is 14-2 with an average margin of victory of 18.2 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wisconsin vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

This Big Ten battle on Friday night opened with most books having the Badgers as 6.5 to 7-point road favorites. The line has come down slightly pretty much everywhere to between -5.5 and -6 in Wisconsin’s favor.

That line shift may have something to do with the fact that Wisconsin has struggled to cover as favorites this season. 

In Week 1 against Buffalo, they won 38-17 but didn’t cover the -28.5-point spread. They followed that up with a loss as 5-point road favorites against Washington State before covering the -20.5-point spread against Georgia Southern last week.

As for Purdue, they got steamrolled by Syracuse in Week 3 and weren’t able to cover the +1-point spread after managing a win against Virginia Tech in Week 2 as 1-point dogs. They didn’t cover the -4-point spread against Fresno State in Week 1 either.

The game total for these two Big Ten West programs opened at 54.5 at most books and has dipped down to 53.5 since. 

Purdue has hit the game total Over once in three games this season while the Badgers are in the same boat, hitting the Over once in three games.

Wisconsin vs Purdue betting trend to know

Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Purdue. 

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