Wisconsin vs USC Player Props & Best Bets: Marks Keeps Chains Moving for Trojans

Prop bet #1: Braedyn Locke Under 172.5 passing yards

-115 at BetMGM

The Wisconsin Badgers probably weren’t going to beat Alabama, but losing starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke definitely didn’t help. And with Van Dyke now done for the year, the Badgers will turn to Braedyn Locke. 

Locke also stepped in last year when then-starter Tanner Mordecai was injured, and the results definitely left something to be desired. The junior quarterback completed just 50% of his passes at just 5.1 yards per attempt over four starts.

It was more of the same when he entered the game vs. Alabama. Locke went 13-26 for 125 yards. That works out to 4.8 yards per attempt.

The USC Trojans are not Alabama on defense, and despite taking a bit of a beating on national television last week, this is clearly a much-improved unit under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. They enter this game ranked 18th in EPA per opponent dropback and 27th in opponent yards per attempt (5.7). 

Some poor tackling and explosive plays in the loss to Michigan hurt USC. If they can tighten up that tackling, the Trojans will have a great opportunity to keep Locke below his passing yard prop since pushing the ball down the field isn’t really his bag.

Prop bet #2: Woody Marks Over 79.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

It’s not surprising to see Wisconsin struggling. What's surprising is how they're struggling.

We're used to the Badgers being a hard-nosed, physical team that even if you beat them, you’re going to feel it. That just hasn’t been the case at this point in the season, and you can see it in opposing teams' run games.

Wisconsin has been gashed on the ground this year. The Badgers rank 111th in defensive success rate vs. the rush, 101st in opponent EPA/rush, and 90th in opponent yards per rush.

That means USC running back Woody Marks could be a real problem for Wisconsin. The Mississippi State transfer has gotten his Trojans career off to an impressive start. He's totaled 271 yards on 6.5 yards per carry through three games while scoring three touchdowns. He’s topped 100 yards in each of the last two games, including going for 100 yards on 13 carries against a very good Michigan defense.

It’s hard to imagine the Badgers’ run defense finally showing up on the road, with an early west coast start at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. I like Marks to keep rumbling and am taking him Over his rushing yards.

Prop bet #3: Ja'Kobi Lane anytime touchdown

+200 at BetMGM

While he’s not Caleb Williams, the USC passing game looks like it’s in solid hands with Miller Moss. The Trojans quarterback has thrown for 890 yards with five touchdowns with just one interception while completing 65% of his passes.

Moss has also done a good job of spreading the ball around evenly to his receivers. Five USC wideouts have at least nine receptions, and four have at least 116 yards. 

However, when USC has gotten close to the end zone, he's preferred to target the big-bodied Ja’Kaboi Lane. The 6-foot-4 sophomore has scored in both of the Trojans’ big games (LSU and Michigan), and at +200, he looks like the best value to find the end zone for the third time in four games.