The Buffalo Bills will welcome the San Francisco 49ers to the winter wonderland of Orchard Park on Sunday Night Football.
While heavy snowfall should end before kickoff, the forecast is still calling for light flurries with a wind chill of about 17 degrees. Messy weather can make it tough to bet on player props, but the expected poor conditions only make me love these NFL picks even more.
Here are my best 49ers vs. Bills props for December 1.
49ers vs Bills SNF props
Purdy Under 224.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)- McCaffrey Over 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
49ers vs Bills SNF props
Prop bet #1: Brock Purdy Under 224.5 passing yards
Cold weather and winds gusting up to 24 mph are just one reason to fade Brock Purdy on his passing yards prop. The San Francisco 49ers pivot is playing through an injury to his throwing shoulder that sidelined him last Sunday, and he threw for just 159 yards the week before against Seattle.
San Francisco's aerial attack hasn't looked the same since losing Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL in Week 7. In addition, the offensive line will have a tough time giving Purdy time to throw with All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Banks both out with injuries.
The Buffalo Bills also hold opposing QBs to 210.0 passing yards per game, with that number shrinking to 179.6 at Highmark Stadium.
Prop bet #2: Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 rush + receiving yards
There's been plenty of media speculation about the health of Christian McCaffrey, who missed the first eight games of the season with Achilles tendinitis. The superstar running back has averaged just 3.5 yards per pop since returning to the backfield, and that has led to more concerns that he's playing hurt.
However, all the CMC commotion may be a bit overblown. As head coach Kyle Shanahan pointed out, McAffrey missed almost all of training camp, so it makes sense that it will take a few weeks for him to round into form.
Thankfully, McCaffrey's lower-than-usual numbers give us some suppressed player props for this matchup. The O/U on McCaffrey's rushing + receiving yards is set at 98.5, which he eclipsed in his first two games. He had 107 yards on 19 touches against Tampa Bay in his season debut in Week 10 and totaled 106 yards on 23 touches versus Seattle in Week 11.
He was limited to 68 total yards last week but should bounce back against a Buffalo defense that surrenders 4.9 yards per rush attempt — the fifth-highest number in the NFL. The Bills have also allowed a league-high 50.7 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, so expect Shanahan to feed McCaffrey the ball in primetime.
Prop bet #3: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards
No quarterback likes playing in the freezing cold, but Buffalo's Josh Allen has consistently gotten the job done. Although Allen might not be able to throw downfield efficiently, he tends to use his legs more in adverse playing conditions and he'll find room to run on Sunday.
Allen rushed 12 times for 55 yards against the Chiefs in his last game and picked up 50 yards on eight carries against the Colts the previous week. The 49ers haven't faced many mobile QBs this year, but Patrick Mahomes ripped off a 33-yard run against them, while Kyler Murray had 83 carries on seven rush attempts.
The 49ers are 22nd in the league in defensive rush EPA and rank just 25th in defensive rush success rate. They've missed linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who is still recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, while defensive tackle Javon Hargrave has also been on the IR since Week 4.
We've seen San Fran's defense struggle without Nick Bosa the last two weeks, and while he's better known for his pass-rushing prowess, he also does a great job at setting the edge against the run. With Bosa and defensive tackle Jordan Elliot ruled out again this week, the Niners will be even more vulnerable on the ground.
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