A short week awaits two NFC West rivals when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
San Francisco can clinch the division title with a win at Lumen Field in Week 15 and add to Seattle’s late-season stumble, with the Seahawks losing three of their last four contests after a surprising 6-3 start.
The infamous “12s” await 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who has rocketed to fame among the San Francisco faithful since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. This will be Purdy’s first taste of a hostile crowd and — crazy enough — the Niners’ first true road game in 46 days.
I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Seahawks on December 15.
Don't forget to check out Josh Inglis' 49ers vs. Seahawks TNF player props along with Jared Hochman's three favorite Christian McCaffrey TNF spotlight props!
49ers vs Seahawks best odds
49ers vs Seahawks picks and predictions
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan isn’t asking too much of his players heading into Thursday Night Football, knowing how banged up the team already is and the stress the mid-week matchup can put on their bodies.
In fact, Shanahan is promoting rest and recovery over game prep in Week 15 and will hold only one full practice before Thursday’s showdown in Seattle. That means keeping things simple and similar to what we saw from this offense in the win over Tampa Bay in Week 14.
With young Brock Purdy making just his second pro start on the road in one of the toughest venues to play in (especially in primetime), Shanahan won’t look to complicate the passing game. Purdy only threw the ball 21 times in the win over the Bucs, with the 49ers going run-heavy in a blowout, but five of those 21 passes were to tight end George Kittle.
Kittle secured four of those balls for just 28 yards receiving in Week 14 but will see more targets given the tighter spread, calling for a closer contest, and Deebo Samuel’s injury leaving targets on the table in Week 15. With a green QB under center in his first road game, a veteran tight end like Kittle will be Purdy’s safety net on Thursday night.
As luck would have it, Kittle’s done his best work on the road, where he’s caught 24 passes for 281 yards and three touchdowns in only four away games (70.25 yards per road game) compared to 219 yards on 19 grabs in seven home stands (31.3 yards per home game).
He only played 50 snaps on Sunday with the starters resting in the second half, well short of his average snap rate of 76.3% on the season (seventh highest among TEs). His recent yardage outputs have stayed below 30 yards in each of the past three games, but the Seahawks have a glaring weakness to tight ends in 2022.
Seattle allows the fifth most yards to the position and ranks 27th in DVOA versus tight ends at Football Outsiders. Kittle missed the first meeting with Seattle due to injury in Week 2 but the last time he showed up at Lumen Field, he snatched nine of 12 targets for 181 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13 last year.
The Seahawks, who have been roughed up by opposing run games, will be focusing on slowing down the Niners’ ball carriers and that makes Kittle a perfect pass option in play action. With Kittle out of commission in Week 2, San Francisco still got production from the tight end position with TE Ross Dwelley catching a wide-open 38-yard touchdown pass off the run fake in the second quarter of that 27-7 victory.
My best bet: George Kittle Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
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49ers vs Seahawks spread analysis
This NFC West war opened with San Francisco as a 3-point road favorite and early play on the 49ers tacked an extra half-point hook onto the spread. Since that move, there has been some interest in the Seahawks, which hasn’t slimmed the spread back to a field goal just yet but has bumped the vig to an expensive +3.5 on the host team.
San Francisco blasted Seattle 27-7 at home back in Week 2 — the game that started the 49ers’ game of musical chairs at QB. Trey Lance was lost for the season in that game, giving the QB1 spot back to Garoppolo, who was then injured in Week 13 and turned the offense over to Purdy. He hasn’t been able to avoid the injury bug either and is listed as day-to-day with bruised ribs heading into the Thursday nighter, leaving recently signed QB Josh Johnson as a possible option.
Under Purdy, the Niners’ attack hasn’t really skipped a beat. San Francisco remains efficient on offense but will be without one of its biggest weapons, as Samuel is expected to miss time with a knee injury. Star running back Christian McCaffrey (knee) is also on the Week 15 injury after being limited in practice earlier this week.
The Seahawks pack a punch on offense as well and are hoping to get bodies back in the rushing attack for Week 15. Seattle, which sits No. 6 in EPA per play, was shorthanded on the ground in Week 14’s loss to Carolina, but RB Kenneth Walker III was back at practice with a limited designation Monday after sitting out all of last week.
Seattle’s recent slide has much more to do with the defense, which has buckled for 0.439 points per play the past three games (seventh most in that span). The Seahawks have been especially soft against the run, ranked out 29th in EPA allowed per handoff since Week 10.
According to Covers Consensus, 71% of the early picks at siding with San Francisco on Thursday Night Football. The 49ers enter this week with an 8-5 ATS record while the Seahawks are 6-7 ATS on the year.
49ers vs Seahawks Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under hit the board as low as 42.5 points on Sunday night and has since climbed to 43.5.
While Purdy’s steady play under center is stealing the headlines, the real star of the show in San Francisco is the defense. The 49ers’ stop unit has stepped it up the past two games and remains one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL, ranked out No. 2 in EPA allowed per play.
The Niners checked the Seahawks to only seven points on just 216 total yards in their first meeting in Santa Clara and will look to their pass rush to disrupt Seattle QB Geno Smith. Smith has been sacked 34 times on the year, including 13 times over the past four games.
San Francisco has collected 36 sacks with one of the best pressure rates in the league all while relying on the front four and blitzing on less than 21% of dropbacks. That said, the Niners’ injury issues aren’t reserved to the offense and several key defensive linemen are either out or questionable for Thursday’s trip to Seattle.
The Seahawks’ offense is one of the more methodical in the league, sitting 27th in plays per game and middle of the pack in terms of seconds per play. San Francisco does get to run more plays per contest (20th) due to the strength of its defense but ranks 29th in pace with a play every 29.8 seconds, according to Football Outsiders.
Covers Consensus shows 58% of early picks on the Over. San Francisco owns a 6-7 O/U mark on the year while Seattle is 8-5 O/U.
49ers vs Seahawks same-game parlay
Kittle Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110) + Kittle anytime TD (+210) + 49ers ML (-175)
The Seahawks have been exploited by tight ends this season and Kittle has been known to burn the birds during this career. This is the Niners’ first real road game since October 30 and with a rookie under center, I’d much rather have San Francisco outright than tangle with the half-point hook on the spread.
TNF SGP odds: +450 at bet365
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
49ers vs Seahawks betting trend to know
Since Pete Carroll took over as head coach in 2010, Seattle is 15-10 SU and 18-7 ATS as a home underdog. That includes a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS count since 2020 and a 2-0 SU and ATS record as a home pup this season. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Seahawks.
49ers vs Seahawks game info
| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, December 15, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video |
| Opening odds: | Seahawks +1.5, 41.5 |
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49ers vs Seahawks weather
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